[55] In early October, Trump suddenly threatened to give Ukraine advanced long-range cruise missiles, warning that thousands of Tomahawks would fly into Russia. Consequently, Putin proposed meeting again in Budapest. In my October 17 article, Not Optimistic About Trump and Putin’s Meeting in Budapest, I wrote: “At that time, Putin only needs to flutter his long eyelashes again and whisper a few sweet nothings in a flirtatious voice, and Trump will fly into the clouds again. Upon his return, he will forget all about the Tomahawk missiles and spend his days immersed in the sweet memories of this meeting." The result? They didn’t even need to meet; after just one phone call, Trump pulled a 180-degree turn, cursed out Zelenskyy to force him to accept Putin’s conditions, and completely forgot the Tomahawks. Fulfilled.
[54] In the September 11 article, World War III Has Become Almost Inevitable, I elaborated on how Trump significantly increased the risk of war. I concluded: “A Nobel Peace Prize? A pipe dream. But if there were a Nobel War Prize, this idiot would surely win it." Fulfilled.
[53] Signs began to emerge in China that Xi had lost power. Before the Fourth Plenary Session, almost all Chinese political commentators were talking about Zhang Youxia seizing military power and Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, and Wang Yang taking over. In my August 2025 articles, I judged that Xi had not been ousted by a coup, that Zhang and Xi had not split, and that Xi was voluntarily reducing his level of dictatorship. Fulfilled.
[52] On August 10, 2025, seven days before Trump went to Alaska to meet Putin, I predicted in In Alaska, Trump Will Be Fooled by Putin Again that Trump would be tricked into Pressuring Ukraine to make concessions. News just broke that Trump abandoned last Friday’s ultimatum to Putin; subsequently, Putin escalated attacks on Ukrainian civilians while Trump remained indifferent. Fulfilled.
[51] On June 15, 2025, the third day of Israel’s strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, I predicted in The Israel-Iran War Won’t Escalate, Ending in Two to Three Weeks that once Israel achieved its goal of setting back Iran’s nuclear program and withdrew, Iran would also stop. The war ended exactly two weeks later. Fulfilled.
[50] On the same day, I wrote China Will Never Abide by Any Trade Agreement with Trump. Four months later, after several trade deals were signed where China promised to restore rare earth supplies, not once has it followed through. Fulfilled.
[49] On June 5, 2025, Elon Musk first threatened to form the “America Party." The next day, I predicted he could not successfully build an anti-Trump faction or party. Fulfilled.
[48] On November 19, 2024, two weeks after Election Day, I argued in The Massive Challenges Facing Musk’s Institutional Downsizing that the movement would end in a whimper. Musk claimed he could cut $2 trillion, but ended up cutting only 1% before closing shop. Fulfilled.
[47] On November 12, 2024, seven days after Election Day, I stated: “Both men have massive egos… they can never cooperate closely in the long term. Period. Musk will definitely break with Trump, starting with a break from his inner circle." Fulfilled.
[46] In the same article, I predicted Trump’s border policy would fizzle out. He promised to deport 15–20 million illegal immigrants. In four months, ICE has deported just over 70,000. At this rate, he will deport 210,000 in a year—less than the 250,000 the Biden administration deported annually. Fulfilled.
[45] I also predicted that regarding Ukraine mediation, Trump would gain no strategic advantage over Biden; the only way to “fix" it would be to bully the weaker party, Ukraine, into concessions. Fulfilled.
[44] Since 2020, I predicted Trump would lose big in the 2024 election. Instead, he won big. I wrote My Prophecy Was Completely Wrong to address this.
[43] The authors of Why Nations Fail won the Nobel Prize in Economics this year. Back in June 2021, I reached the exact same conclusion regarding why life in China is becoming increasingly difficult.
[42] On August 26, 2024, I predicted: regardless of the Ukrainian military’s incompetence, because Russia cannot stop drone strikes on its refineries—their only source of income—the outcome of the war is already decided. Pending.
[41] On August 15, 2024, nine days after the Kursk invasion, I pointed out that spreading limited resources thin was strategically detrimental. Indeed, Russia retook the area, and the collapse of the Eastern Ukrainian front accelerated. Fulfilled.
[40] On February 29, 2024, I predicted that China’s collapse would begin at the county level. Pending.
[39] On February 23, 2024, I refuted the conspiracy theory that Democrats welcome illegal immigrants for votes. I argued that only those who become legal can vote, and they are often the most anti-illegal immigration. In 2024, Hispanic voters swinging to Trump was a major reason for the Democratic loss. Fulfilled.
[38] On January 4, 2024, eight days before the first US strike on the Houthis, I published The US is About to Act Against the Houthis. Fulfilled.
[37] On December 21, 2023, I predicted the Supreme Court would overturn the Colorado decision to bar Trump from the ballot. It was fulfilled the following March. Fulfilled.
[36] On November 26, 2023, I predicted—three years before Musk did—that mature AI would eventually make all goods and services free. Fulfilled.
[35] On October 15, 2023, eight days after the Hamas attack, I wrote that the probability of Hezbollah joining the war was very high. Fulfilled.
[34] On October 8, 2023, the day after the Hamas attack, I predicted Israel would not negotiate for hostages and would definitely launch a ground invasion of Gaza. Fulfilled.
[33] On October 2, 2023, I predicted the US military was developing cheap weapons to counter micro-drones. In 2024, several such weapons were delivered to Ukraine. Fulfilled.
[32] On September 22, 2023, I predicted that in five to ten years, China would begin to show signs of decay and ruin. Pending.
[31] During the Ukrainian “Counter-offensive," I repeatedly pointed out that the Ukrainian military lacked the courage for a large-scale offensive, and Russia would use their inaction to prepare for the next strike. Fulfilled.
[30] On November 28, 2022, I predicted: “Once the fall of the CCP begins, it will happen faster than anyone imagines." Pending.
[29] On November 13, 2022, I was the first commentator to predict the next Ukrainian counter-offensive would target Melitopol. Fulfilled.
[28] I predicted that if Putin used nuclear weapons, NATO would respond not with nukes, but by using its air force to annihilate all Russian forces in Ukraine. In October, the former CIA Director confirmed this was the plan. Fulfilled.
[27] On September 15, 2022, I said two signs would reveal if the CCP had set a timeline for “unification by force": the first being if China remains firmly on Russia’s side despite Russian failures. Pending.
[26] In the same article, I predicted Russian forces might withdraw from the entire region north of the Dnipro River without a fight. Fulfilled.
[25] On August 31, 2022, I was the first to point out that the Ukrainian military lacked the resolve for a major offensive in the South, and it was merely a distraction. Fulfilled.
[24] On July 27, 2022, four days before her trip, I predicted Pelosi had already made up her mind to visit Taiwan despite China’s threats of military interception. Fulfilled.
[23] One month into the war, I predicted that without the US military’s combined arms system, even the advanced M1A2 tanks would be destroyed. Fulfilled.
[22] On February 27, 2022, three days into the war, I pointed out that Ukraine was not losing, losses were smaller than expected, and Zelenskyy was destined to be a national hero. These judgments appeared in mainstream media weeks later. Fulfilled.
[21] On February 24, 2022, I predicted China would stand by Russia. Fulfilled.
[20] Three days before the war, I predicted a large-scale invasion based on the “disappearance" of the CCP’s seven top leaders after Putin attended the Beijing Olympics. Fulfilled.
[19] I predicted that supporting Russia would lead to China’s isolation, while abandoning Russia would lose their only ally. Pending.
[18] On January 31, 2022, I called Putin the “worst strategist in history," comparable to Hitler and Tojo. Fulfilled.
[17] I predicted Russia’s nuclear weapons would not scare the US. Fulfilled.
[16] I predicted that the Russian military is not the second-best in the world, and a fight with NATO would be a one-sided slaughter. Pending.
[15] On January 3, 2022, I predicted the US would rapidly surpass China in hypersonic technology. Recently, the US equipped troops with the “AARGM-ER" while China’s versions remained limited. Fulfilled.
[14] Two months before the invasion, while others claimed Putin was just playing a “grand chess game," I said an invasion of Ukraine was a high-probability event. Fulfilled.
[13] I predicted the CCP’s arms race would burn through China’s cash, leading to a decline in influence and repeating the Soviet Union’s path to bankruptcy. Pending.
[12] Regarding AUKUS, I said it gave the US a massive forward base, ending China’s Pacific ambitions. Partially Fulfilled.
[11] I predicted the Biden team would privately tell Xi not to invite him to the Winter Olympics to avoid embarrassment. Fulfilled.
[10] In May 2020, I predicted that in a year, the US would emerge from the pandemic while China would be stuck in a cycle of lockdowns and economic stagnation. Fulfilled.
[9] I predicted Australia, as a proud nation, would never bow to China’s trade coercion. Fulfilled.
[8] After the 2020 election, I predicted Trump’s fraud allegations would fail and Pence would not overturn the result. Fulfilled.
[7] I predicted Biden would be tougher on the CCP and the US economy would improve. Fulfilled.
[6] In 2019, I said Xi was deliberately emulating North Korea to consolidate power, even if it destroyed the economy. Fulfilled.
[5] I predicted China’s economy would slide and it would gradually become like North Korea. Fulfilled.
[4] I predicted the US would definitely go to war to defend Taiwan. Biden confirmed this on 60 Minutes in 2022. Fulfilled.
[3] In November 2018, I predicted the trade war would not reach a real agreement and fighting would resume in three months. Fulfilled.
[2] In 2018, I predicted that once the American “machine" started moving against China, it wouldn’t be stopped by mere purchases of Boeing planes. Fulfilled.
[1] In 2014, I predicted the Hong Kong protests would become long-term and intense, leading to a bloody crackdown and a global anti-China wave. Fulfilled.
做个明白人 