A reader asks:

Hello, sir. I’ve been a loyal reader of yours for a long time.

Some people believe the Republicans are absolutely certain to win a landslide victory in the upcoming midterm elections, taking control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives.

Their reasoning is simple: whoever controls the direction of public opinion has a much greater chance of winning. Republicans control virtually all the major social media platforms in America and therefore control the public narrative. Young Americans overwhelmingly support the Republicans. Although opposition to the Trump administration is currently quite strong, largely because of high fuel prices and the rising cost of living, Trump is a master at making grand promises and talking people into believing him.

On top of that, America’s wealthy business elites and corporate tycoons are all on the Republican side. They have all the money and talent they need. As for the Democrats, it’s hard to know where to begin. They simply don’t seem to have anyone capable of rising to the occasion.

Although I hope Trump loses, I find these arguments very convincing. I, too, believe the Republicans are certain to win a landslide victory and capture both chambers of Congress. The riots in France have given them an enormous boost. Without those riots, the Republicans would certainly have lost, but now they are certain to win.

The Democrats still haven’t figured out why they lost the last presidential election. This time, they’re going to lose for exactly the same reasons.

What do you think?

My response:

Thank you for your comment.

I cannot confidently predict the outcome of the midterm elections. Of the 60 predictions I’ve made over the past 14 years, I believe only my prediction about the 2024 presidential election turned out to be wrong.

The American people are no longer the people they once were. Their moral standards have deteriorated, which is why they elected Trump. I used to understand the American people as though I could see right through them. But I can no longer say that about today’s Americans.

Nevertheless, I do not believe a Republican landslide is inevitable. If I absolutely had to place a bet, I would bet on the Democrats winning, although I’m far from confident about my chances.

If you get most of your information from YouTube, Facebook, and other social media platforms, there is something you need to understand.

Their algorithms analyse what video you clicked, liked and subscribed to to find out your preferences and determine whether you lean Republican or Democrat. Once they conclude that you favour the Republicans, they will tend to feed you more stories suggesting that Republicans are going to win.

The result is that Republican voters become increasingly hostile toward Democrats, while Democratic voters become increasingly hostile toward Republicans. Everyone ends up living in their own information bubble.

If you genuinely want to keep your finger on the pulse of the times, you must learn to seek out different perspectives.

You must learn to recognise channels that manipulate emotions, exaggerate claims, or substitute inflammatory rhetoric for rational discussion—and then block them, even when they tell you exactly what you want to hear.

At the same time, you should deliberately expose yourself to opinions you don’t like hearing.

Once you begin doing this consistently, the platforms’ algorithms will gradually adapt to your preferences. They will become less likely to recommend sensationalist, inflammatory channels and more likely to show you measured, fact-based commentary and perspectives from different sides.

On YouTube, you’ll find three dots beneath each video. Click them, and you’ll see two options:

• “Not interested” — Tells YouTube you’re not interested in this particular video, without necessarily rejecting the entire channel.
• “Don’t recommend channel” — Tells YouTube to stop recommending videos from that channel.

These are invaluable tools for training the algorithm.

You must take control of the information you consume. Be the master of your own worldview, rather than allowing platform algorithms to shape it for you.

It is really difficult. You have to possess the capability to curb your fear, anger and hatred, otherwise you will find it impossible to resist those that please your ear and listen to those that are opposite.

But only then can you be wise.

讀者問：

老师你好，一直是您的忠实读者。

有人认为这次中期选举共和党必将百分百大胜，参议院众议院全夺。他认为为什么是必然百分之百肯定，道理很简单，谁控制了舆论走向基本上赢的概率就大，共和党控制了整个美国的社交软件，控制了舆论的走向，美国的年轻群体整体支持共和党比例高，虽然目前反对特朗普政府目前声音也很大，因为高油价，高物价确实有影响，但老特各种画饼，老特的口才各种huyou，加上美国财团超级大佬都在共和党这一边，要钱有钱，要有人才有人才，反观民主党这边，一言难尽，真的是没有什么人才能顶上去了。

我虽然希望特朗普输，但是也认为他说的太对了，共和堂必大胜，他们控制了舆论和媒体等社交软件，法国的暴动是大助攻，如果没这件事共和党必败，但是现在共和党必大胜，两院都会胜。

民主党到现在都没搞清楚上次总统大选他们输在哪里，这次他们会输在相同原因上，请问您怎么看。

我的回答：

謝謝你的留言。我無力預言中期選舉結果，我過去14年的60條預言中好像只有2024大選的預言錯了。美國人民現在已經不是當年的美國人民，他們的道德水平墮落了，所以才會選出川普，我對當年的他們了解得如透明，但我已經不知道現在的他們。

但我不認爲現在的局勢是共和黨必然大勝。但如果我不得不賭一把，我會賭民主黨贏，雖然我勝算不大。

如果你的信息渠道是油管、臉書等社媒，你要注意：他們的算法會通過你按、訂閱、喜歡了哪個視頻檢測出你喜歡共和黨還是民主黨，一旦他們發現你喜歡共和黨，他們就會只向你推送共和黨會贏的消息。這種算法的結果就是共和黨選民越來越痛恨民主黨，民主黨選民越來越痛恨共和黨，所有人都生活在信息繭房中。

你如果想真正把握時代的脈搏，你必須學會兼收并蓄，學會辨識煽動情緒、誇大、不就事論事的頻道，然後把他們屏蔽掉，即使它們說的是你愛聽的，然後刻意看一些你不愛聽的意見。

一旦你開始這樣做，平臺就會明白你的兼收并蓄的意圖，開始避免給你推送那些相同意見的、誇大煽動的頻道。

油管上每個視頻的下面有三個點，按一下，你會看到二個選項：

• “Not interested” （不感興趣——只對這個節目不感興趣，但不是對整個頻道不感興趣）
• “Don’t recommend channel”（不要再推薦這個頻道）

這是你訓練算法的寶貴工具。

你必須掌控你自己看到的東西，做自己世界觀的主人，而不是被動地被平臺算法左右。

這樣做非常難。你必須有能力駕馭心中的恐懼、憤怒和仇恨，否則你很難抵禦哪些悅耳的聲音，很難容忍那些逆耳的聲音。

然而，只有這樣，你才能做一個智者。

A reader left a comment on the Wenxuecity version of my article, “NATO Secretary General Copied My Strategy RE Putin Escalation!!!”, saying I am a narcissist.

Here is my reply:

I’m deeply troubled and conflicted about it myself. How about doing me a favour and finding a political commentator, Chinese or otherwise, who has even half my ability to predict the future, with a documented track record to prove it? Wouldn’t that cure my narcissism once and for all? Please, I’m begging you!

What do readers come to me for? Political commentary, not lessons in personal virtue! If they’re getting the most accurate political analysis in the world, isn’t that enough for them? However narcissistic I may be, am I anywhere near as narcissistic as Trump?

Aren’t you tired in being a self-appointed morality police?

有讀者在我的《北約祕書長照搬了我的應對俄國侵略的戰略！！！》（文學城上的）下留言，說我太自戀。

這是我的回復：

我也很痛苦，很糾結。要不您幫我找一個中外政評人，能有我一半的預知未來的能力，且有案可查？那我的自戀不就治好了嗎？拜託呀！

讀者想從我這得到什麼？是政評，不是性格修養！他們得到了全世界最準確的政評，不就行了？我再自戀，有川普自戀？你累不累呀？！

On August 30, 2026, in my article “Putin Is Highly Likely to Attack a NATO Country," I wrote:

The best response would be for NATO to remain on the defensive outside Ukraine—shooting down Russian drones and missiles and repelling any Russian ground incursions—while going on the offensive in Ukraine by dramatically increasing both the quantity and quality of military assistance to Ukrainian forces.

If Putin’s attacks on NATO became sufficiently intense, NATO could directly deploy combat aircraft, and potentially even ground forces, to fight in Ukraine.

At that point, the question in the Ukraine war would no longer be whether Russian advances could be stopped. It would become a question of how long Ukraine would need to recover all of its occupied territory. Once Ukraine had recovered all of its lost territory, Putin’s incentive to provoke NATO would disappear.

About a month later, on September 24, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte put forward a strategy for countering Russian provocations that was exactly the same as mine:

NATO will remain a defensive alliance, will not strike first, and will defend every inch of NATO territory.

For every hybrid attack or similar provocation by Russia, NATO should respond by increasing financial and military assistance to Ukraine.

As I’ve said before, if you want to know the future, all you need to do is follow my articles. The vast majority of my 60 predictions over the past 14 years have come true.

2026年8月30日，在《普京攻击北约国家是大概率事件》裏，我說：

最佳的回應俄國攻擊北約的方式是在烏克蘭之外的戰場採取守勢，擊落俄國無人機和導彈，擊退俄軍地面入侵，而在烏克蘭採取攻勢，提升對烏軍援的規模和質量。如果普京對北約的進攻烈度足夠大，北約可以直接派戰機甚至地面部隊在烏克蘭參戰。那時，烏戰就不再是能否停止俄軍進展的問題了，而是烏克蘭多久可以收復全部失地的問題了。一旦烏克蘭收復所有失地，普京挑釁北約的動機就不存在了。

約一個月後，9月24日，北約祕書長Rutte提出了和我一模一樣的對付俄國挑釁的戰略：

北約將繼續保持防禦性聯盟的立場，不會率先發動攻擊，並將保衛北約每一寸領土。俄國每發動一次混合戰攻擊或類似的挑釁行動，北約就應增加對烏克蘭的財政和軍事援助，作為對俄國的回應。

還是那句話，如果你想預知未來，只需追蹤我的文章就行了。我14年來的60條預言絕大多數應驗。

On October 13, 2026, Vladimir Trump had just decided to purchase oil from his boss, Putin, and threatened to cut off intelligence sharing with Ukraine to pressure it into stopping its strikes on Russian oil refineries.

A certain famous political pundit immediately declared triumphantly, “Lord Trump is furious, and the consequences will be dire! Zelensky, you deserve to be besieged on all sides!"

In my article published that very day, “Vladimir Trump’s Death Throes," I predicted that Ukraine was now only minimally dependent on the United States, while support for Ukraine remained strong across the American political spectrum and throughout Europe. Trump could not simply ignore these pressures. Therefore, Zelensky would not bow to pressure from Trump, the Russian spy. Instead, he would “sit as steady as a rock, smiling as he watched Trump make a clown of himself."

And what happened?

Trump, the Russian spy, did indeed order American intelligence agencies to stop providing Ukraine with missile early-warning intelligence and prevent Ukraine army to use Star Link. But faced with an enormous wave of condemnation at home and abroad, he was indeed forced into a humiliating retreat and had to rescind the two orders. Secretary of State Rubio even had to appear before Congress, grilled lawmakers, and defend Trump.

Rubio has tied his once-promising political future to the doomed, sinking manure barge that is Vladimir Trump. What a pity.

To handle the situation as impeccably as possible, Zelensky suspended strikes on Russian oil refineries for three days. During those three days, however, Russia not only failed to stop attacking Ukraine’s energy infrastructure, as Trump had claimed it would, but dramatically intensified its attacks instead.

This demonstrated beyond any doubt that Putin considers Vladimir Trump utterly unworthy of respect.

There can be only two possible explanations:

First: Putin considers Vladimir Trump an idiot.

Second: Vladimir is Putin’s subordinate, the FSB’s prized sleeper agent. Naturally, Putin has no reason to respect him. After all, Vladimir has to obey his orders regardless.

Trump supporters, which one do you think it is?

And so, three days later, Zelensky resumed and intensified strikes against Russia’s critical infrastructure. Thick smoke billowed into the skies over St. Petersburg and Moscow.

My prediction has come true exactly as I said it would.

As I’ve said before, if you want to know the future, all you need to do is follow my articles. The vast majority of my 60 predictions over the past 14 years have come true.

2026年10月13日，弗拉基米爾·川普剛剛決定向老闆普京購買石油，並威脅停止向烏克蘭提供情報，施壓烏克蘭停止打擊俄國煉油設施。

某著名政評大神立即洋洋得意地說，“川爺很生氣，後果很嚴重，澤連斯基你活該四面楚歌！”

我在那天的《弗拉基米爾·川普的垂死掙扎》裏預言，烏克蘭現在對美國依賴很小，美國國內朝野和歐洲支持烏克蘭的勢力很大，川普無法無視這些壓力，所以澤連斯基不會屈從俄諜川普的壓力，他會“穩坐泰山笑看川普小丑的表演”。

結果呢？

俄諜川普確實給美國情報機關下令停止向烏克蘭提供導彈預警等情報，並限制烏軍使用星鏈。但面對國內外巨大的譴責聲浪，他不得不羞辱地撤回這二條命令，國務卿盧比奧還不得不去國會面對議員們的質問爲川普辯解。盧比奧把他的錦繡前程綁在了弗拉基米爾·川普這艘注定沉沒的運糞船上了。可惜。

澤連斯基爲做得盡善盡美，將對俄國煉油設施的打擊停止了三天。而在這三天內，俄國不僅沒有如川普所說停止對烏克蘭能源設施的打擊，反而大幅度加大了打擊力度。這清清楚楚地表明，普京認爲弗拉基米爾·川普根本不值得任何尊重。

原因只可能有二個：

第一：普京認爲弗拉基米爾·川普是個白癡；

第二：弗拉基米爾是普京的部下，FSB的王牌臥底，所以自然普京沒必要尊重他，反正他得執行自己的命令。

川粉們，你們覺得是哪個？

于是，三天後，澤連斯基恢復並加大了對俄國所有關鍵設施的打擊，彼得堡、莫斯科上空濃煙滾滾。

我的預言完美應驗。

還是那句話，如果你想預知未來，只需追蹤我的文章就行了。我14年來的60條預言絕大多數應驗。

Donald, the owner of a watermill, was pacing angrily along the riverbank. The dam had burst, the water level in the river had plunged, and his waterwheel stopped turning. His livelihood was gone.

Just then, he spotted a chicken named Zelensky drinking from the river.

Furious, he picked up a wooden stick and charged at the chicken, determined to beat it to death.

“You villain! You’re the one who drained the river dry!"

---

Over the past few days, I’ve heard Trump repeatedly blame the skyrocketing oil prices on Ukraine’s attacks on Russian oil refineries.

Russian oil and gas have long been under international sanctions, and Russia hasn’t been able to sell much to begin with. Less than 5% of the civilised world’s oil comes from Russia.

The real and sole cause of the soaring oil prices is Trump’s Iran war, a war the civilised world neither needed nor wanted. Iran and its little brother has blocked all three major Middle Eastern oil export routes—the Strait of Hormuz, Saudi Arabia’s oil pipelines, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.

Category	Daily exports before the war	Daily exports in September	Reduction
Persian Gulf crude oil	Approx. 18.5 million barrels	13.9 million barrels	Approx. 25%
Middle Eastern refined petroleum products	4.7 million barrels	1.9 million barrels	60%
Middle Eastern liquefied petroleum gas (LPG)	1.5 million barrels	670,000 barrels	55%

Anyone with an IQ above 50 can see that Trump’s accusation makes absolutely no sense, can’t they?

Yet he keeps repeating it, day after day.

Why?

Because he knows his supporters will believe him.

He knows his base is a bunch of idiots.

Otherwise, why would he keep insisting that his waterwheel stopped turning because Zelensky the Chicken drank the river dry?

水力磨坊的主人唐納德在河堤上忿忿地走。水壩潰堤了，小河水位驟降，磨坊的水車停了下來，他的生計沒了。

這時，他看見一隻叫澤連斯的雞在河裏喝水。他憤怒地撿起一根木棍，衝上去要把澤連斯雞打死：

“你這個惡棍，就是你讓河水沒了！”

============================================

這幾天，我聽到川普說，油價的暴漲是因爲烏克蘭對俄國煉油設施的襲擊。

俄國的油氣早就被國際社會制裁，本來就賣不出多少。文明世界不到5%的石油是俄國提供的。

川普的文明社會不需要的伊朗戰爭導致中東石油三大輸出通道——霍爾姆斯海峽、沙特的石油管道、曼得海峽全部被阻斷，才是油價飛昇的唯一原因：

項目	戰前每日出口	9月每日出口	減少
波斯灣原油	約1,850萬桶	1,390萬桶	約25%
中東成品油	470萬桶	190萬桶	60%
中東液化石油氣（LPG）	150萬桶	67萬桶	55%

任何一個智商50以上的人都知道川普的指責毫無道理，對不對？

但他這幾天不停地說。

爲什麼？因爲他的基本盤就是會信。

他知道他的基本盤是一羣蠢貨。

否則，他怎麼會一再說他水車停轉是因爲澤連斯雞喝光了小河的水？