Vladimir Trump’s visit to China may have two very different outcomes. Which outcome it will be depends on how the CCP positions Trump. Note this is not how the CCP positions the US — it is certainly an enemy, and this has not changed over the past decades — but its position toward Trump himself may be completely different.

If the CCP treatsTrump as an enemy

Since Trump took office, he has already destroyed every card tha the US can play.

On “Liberation Day” he imposed crazy tariffs on China, believing China would not dare retaliate. China’s rare earth blockade brought theUS to the brink of paralysis. Trump completely gave up confronting China, and since then has acted with great caution.

His series of hostile and insulting actions against Canada and European allies caused them to seek to improve relations with China. The anti-China encirclement carefully constructed by Biden and his predecessors starts to fall apart. China’s new energy and high-tech products are selling well throughout the world outside the US.

Because the adoption of new energy is far ahead, China’s dependence on imported energy is lower than that of most of the countries.

In short, China now has no critical dependence on the US.

America’s national debt has now exceeded GDP, almost reaching the level of U.S. debt after World War II. But bare in mind that the US debt only slightly exceeded GDP after fighting two world wars in Europe and Asia. Now its debt has already exceeded GDP, while not a single shot has yet been fired in the next world war with China! As I said in “The Consequences of Trump’s Reckless War: The Fall of Taiwan is Almost Inevitable,” the US merely possesses the military technology to easily win this war, but it no longer has the money to win it. Taiwan’s fall is almost a foregone conclusion.

Therefore, in the struggle between China and the US, the initiative is in the CCP’s hands.

Then Vladimir made exactly the same mistake again in Iran. Ignoring the strong warnings of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff he himself appointed and the U.S. Joint Intelligence Committee, he believed Iran would not dare blockade the Strait of Hormuz and launched attacks against Iran aimed at regime change. As a result, Iran’s blockade caused enormous losses to the entire world including the US. The war faced strong opposition in the U.S. Congress and among former allies, so although Iran continues blocking the strait and continuously attacking Gulf states, Trump does not dare use force again. The CIA judged that Iran could hold out for four months. However, because Russia’s route through the Caspian Sea for transporting food, ammunition, and military industrial equipment to Iran remains unobstructed, and the US is powerless to interfere, Iran’s ability to bypass the American blockade will only grow.

Therefore, in the struggle between the US and Iran, the initiative is in Iran’s hands.

Isn’t Vladimir Trump guaranteed to receive a large collection of “Hero of Russia” medals?

So, why would CCP give up anything to Vladimir?

Therefore, if China positions Trump as an enemy, not only will he return empty-handed from this visit to China, he will be humiliated.

If the CCP positions Trump as an ally

However, the CCP is not stupid enough to fail to see that, in the little more than a year since Vladimir took office, he has caused losses to the US greater than what ten more World War IIs could have caused, while providing opportunities to the CCP and Russia that they previously would not even have dared dream of. It cannot fail to see that Vladimir is an ally beyond their wildest dreams. If the Republican Party suffers a crushing defeat in the November midterm elections and loses two-thirds of the seats in both houses — a possibility that cannot be ignored — then Vladimir will certainly be impeached, and American foreign policy will inevitably return to its previous normal state. Then the good days for the CCP and Putin will be over.

Therefore, although the US has been humilated in the Middle East, although Trump holds no cards at all and Iran and the CCP possess the initiative, you will see that the CCP will still give Trump gifts sufficient to preserve at least some face for him, to help the Republican Party avoid losing two-thirds of the seats in the midterm elections.

You will see that, in the eyes of the CCP, Vladimir is a friend, not an enemy.

弗拉基米尔·川普訪華，可能有二個非常不同的結果，究竟哪個結果取決於中共對川普的定位。注意這不是中共對美國的定位——對美國的定位肯定是敵人，這一點過去幾十年都沒有變，但對它川普的定位可能完全不同。

如果中共把川普定位為敵人

川普上台以來，已經把所有能打的牌全毀掉了。

他在“解放日”對中國征收高額關稅，以為中國不敢反擊，結果中國的稀土封鎖讓美國面臨停擺的危險，川普徹底放棄了對付中國，此後一直陪著小心。

他的一系列得罪加拿大和歐洲盟友的舉措讓後者開始大力改善與中國的關係，拜登及其歷屆前任所精心構築的反華包圍圈基本泡湯。中國的各種新能源、高科技產品在美國以外的世界暢銷。

因為新能源的普及遙遙領先，中國對進口能源的依賴低於世界上絕大多數國家。

總而言之，中國現在對美國沒有生死攸關的依賴。

美國現在的國債超過了GDP，幾乎達到了二戰後美國的國債水平，但不要忘記，美國是在歐洲、亞洲打了二場世界大戰後，國債才略微超過GDP；現在它的國債已經超過GDP，而它和中國的世界大戰還一槍未放呢！就如我在《川普輕啟戰端的後果：台灣的淪陷幾乎已成定局》中所說，美國徒有輕鬆贏得這場戰爭的軍事科技，但它已經沒有錢去贏了，台灣的淪陷幾成定局。

所以，中美之爭，主動權完全掌握在中共手裡。

然後，弗拉基米尔在伊朗又犯了一模一樣的錯誤。他不顧自己任命的參謀長聯席會議主席和美國情報聯合委員會會的強烈警告，認為伊朗不敢封鎖霍爾姆斯海峽，對伊朗發起以政權更迭為目的的打擊，結果伊朗的封鎖讓包括美國在內的全世界損失慘重。戰爭在美國國會和昔日盟友中遭到強烈反對，所以雖然伊朗持續封鎖海峽並不斷攻擊海灣國家，川普卻不敢再次動武。CIA判斷伊朗完全可以撐過四個月，然而，因為俄羅斯通過里海向伊朗運輸糧草彈藥軍工設備的通路暢通無阻，美國無力干預，伊朗繞過美國封鎖的能力只會越來越好。

戰前，伊朗不敢封鎖海峽，不敢肆意攻擊海灣國家，現在它大大方方地做，沒有後果。

MAGA: Make Adversarie Great Again.

所以，美伊之爭，主動權完全掌握在伊朗手裡。

你看，弗拉基米尔·川普是不是穩拿一大把“俄羅斯英雄”勛章？

所以，如果中國把川普定位為敵人，他此次訪華訪華不僅要空手而歸嗎，而且必然受盡羞辱。

如果中共把川普定位為盟友

然而，中共沒有蠢到這個程度，會看不出弗拉基米尔上任一年多來，對美國造成了再打十遍二戰都造成不了的損失，給中共和俄國提供了以往做夢都不敢想的機遇。它不會看不出，弗拉基米尔是他們做夢都不敢想的盟友。如果共和黨在11月的中期選舉中大敗虧輸，丟掉了三分之二的兩院席位——這一點有不可忽略的可能，那麼弗拉基米尔鐵定被彈劾，美國的外交必定重回以往的非瘋癲狀態，那麼中共、普京的好日子就過去了。

所以，雖然美國在中東顏面盡失，焦頭爛額，雖然川普手裡沒有任何牌，伊朗、中共掌握完全的主動權，你會看到，中共仍然會給川普送上足夠挽回起碼顏面的禮物，好幫助共和黨在中期選舉中不丟掉三分之二的席位。

你會看到，在中共眼裡，弗拉基米尔是友非敵。

【順便】

我們這些州緊急救援志願者們在練習僅僅用塑料布將水流改道，避免灌進居民住宅。我覺得很酷：

今天救出一隻漂亮的黑白貓…

It was on YouTube that I first heard the meaning of the Tao Te Ching’s opening line: “道可道，非常道”:

Speakable truths are not true truths. Speakable names are not true names.

“Isn’t this exactly what I realized in meditation?”

Laozi lived around 500 BC. Buddhism didn’t reach China until 600 years later. Yet what he saw aligns with Buddhist teaching. This proved again that there is only one true wisdom in this world, whatever label we stick on it.

What Laozi meant was that the real TRUTH, the Tao, cannot be told. If you use just one word to describe it, then that is one word too many, one word away from it.

The TRUTH can only be realized by yourself in your epiphany.

So if an enlightened sage demanded I tell him what the truth of the world is, I would look at him, and stay silent.

This TRUTH, the “emptiness” or “nothingness”, is what I realized in my meditation.

However, as the Heart Sutra says: “No wisdom, and no attainment.” Even my awakening is an illusion.

The moment I tell myself, “I found the truth!”, I walked away from it.

The act of me writing this article is a deviation from the TRUTH.

Then why do I do it? Why are there so many scriptures and books preaching the way?

The TRUTH sits on a sheer peak. All the scriptures and temples exist to bring you to the foot of the mountain — to trim you down, build your strength, fit you out with the gear for the climb. The last thousand meters of cliff, you climb alone.

What does “emptiness” mean?

This world is like a pond. Substances of every color interact, give off scents and sounds — endlessly bustling.

In all this commotion, acid neutralizes alkali, high despises low, cold defeats heat, yin cancels yang. The best time of your life is followed by decline. Unbreakable oaths of love will still be broken by death.

Once you see through the commotion, you see the pond’s true nature: a clear pool of autumn water — colorless, scentless, soundless, formless, meaningless, free of the grip of time.

Because the sun continues to inject energy, the pond stays bustling forever.

But once you know its true nature, you no longer cling to the colors, the scents, the sounds.

You can savor every fleeting beauty in life — fine food, friendship, love, scenery — but, when it all vanishes in an instant, your heart stays still as that pool of autumn water.

Because nothing has changed.

Huineng, the Sixth Patriarch of Zen Buddhism in the 7th century, said:

“There is not a single thing — where could dust gather?”

It is not that the outer material world is empty. Someone on YouTube said that the vast empty space in atoms proves the emptiness. He gave himself away. Slam your head into a wall, and you get blood all over your face. There is real substance there.

“Emptiness” is the state of mind when you attain the Tao.

In 1940, German army occupied Norway, and mass executions of resistance fighters were routine. If Hitler had wanted the Nobel Peace Prize, he wouldn’t have needed to compete — he only had to send a hint to the committee, and no one would have dared defy him. The prize was in his bag.

But the thought never crossed his mind.

Because apart from his faith in the law of the jungle, and his ruthlessness toward those he saw as evil enemies, in the eyes of German people at the time, Hitler was seen as a man of impeccable honor.

He did not refuse to pay after contractors had rendered their services to him.

He did not engage in commercial fraud.

He did not commit adultery, did not call prostitutes, did not frequent the criminal haunts of pedophiles, and remained faithful to Eva Braun to the end.

This was why, when only the single street around the Reich Chancellery in Berlin remained unconquered by the Soviet Red Army, underage German youths would man rifles and artillery, fight to the last moment, and then put a bullet through their own heads. After his suicide, his generals still said, “The Führer forbade us to surrender" — and then, one after another, raised their pistols and shot themselves. You can’t attribute this to brainwashing. Stalin and Mao were masters in brain washing, but no one was willing to die with them.

Now, take a look at this piece of news:

Trump likely among 287 candidates for Nobel Peace Prize

My God!!!!

This idiot truly does not — literally — know that there is such a thing in this world as “shame"!

Alas, America!

Once, she was the world’s moral high ground, a beacon of democracy, the sanctuary longed for by all persecuted.

Today, it is an oppressor, a murderer, a cesspit into which Trump discharges his endless filth.

1940年，德軍佔領了挪威，成批槍殺抵抗者是家常便飯。如果希特勒想要諾貝爾和平獎，他不需要“角逐”，他只要派人給委員會一個暗示，沒人敢抗命。穩拿。

但他想都沒想過。

因為除了篤信弱肉強食的叢林法則，對他眼裡的邪惡敵人無比殘酷，在當時的德國的上流社會眼裡，希特勒是一個個人操守完美無瑕的謙謙君子。

他不在雇用的個人或企業給他提供完服務後拒絕付費。

他不進行商業欺詐。

他不通姦，不嫖娼，不光顧戀童者的犯罪場所，對愛人艾娃從一而終。

這就是為什麼在柏林只剩下總理府周圍最後一條街沒有被蘇聯紅軍攻佔時，未成年的德國年輕人會操槍操炮戰鬥到最後時刻，然後飲彈自盡。他自殺後，他的將軍們仍然說，“元首不許我們投降，” 於是紛紛舉槍自殺。你不可能把這都歸於戈培爾的洗腦——斯大林和毛都是洗腦的高手，但沒有任何人願意為他們陪葬。

現在，你再看看這條新聞：

诺贝尔和平奖287人或组织获提名 川普可能再角逐

我的上帝！！！！

這個傻逼是真的 ——literally——不知道世界上還有“廉恥”二字呀！

哀哉，美國！

昔日，她是全世界的道德高地和民主燈塔，是所有受迫害者嚮往的避難所。

今天，它是謀殺犯，是迫害者，是供川普排洩他的無盡污穢的糞坑。

如果我是伊朗軍方，我就在一艘巨型油輪中隱藏二百名特種部隊，然後讓它去試圖衝破美海軍在霍爾慕斯海峽的封鎖線。美海軍不願炮擊油輪引起大火、重大平民船員的傷亡和大範圍污染，於是派一二十個特種部隊乘直升機降落油輪。

在這些美軍從直升機索降甲板後，隱藏的伊軍特種部隊迅速衝出，將美軍團團圍住，另一部分伊軍舉著肩扛式單兵防空飛彈，掀開帆布，露出防空火砲，對美軍直升機進行警告式射擊，逼其撤離。如果美軍直升機已經降落在甲板上，那就更好了，連直升機、飛行員一起活捉。

這樣一來，伊朗左手有核彈級別的霍爾慕斯海峽，右手有二十名美軍特種部隊當人質，就可以獅子大開口，既要又要了。

匈牙利总理奥尔班自从上台以来，采取各种措施打压政治对手，迫害自由媒体，忠心耿耿地做普京的马仔。同為普京的馬仔，弗拉基米爾•川普把奥尔班當作偶像，後者給他提供一個把民主國家轉向獨裁的範本。

然而，当奥尔班在大选失败後体面优雅地接受了失败，并向政治对手表示祝贺時，川普抑郁了。

因为他的崇拜的偶像没有下降到他那麼低的高度，去拒绝接受大选结果，去指责政治对手舞弊。川普郁闷地发现，在世界上所有民主国家里，他找不到一个下賤到他的高度的人，即使是那個被整個歐洲嘲笑、厭惡、排斥的奧爾班，也比他優雅一個等級。

Long-time followers of my writing know that I never distort facts to prove myself right, nor do I let my personal feelings about a politician override the facts. I don’t attack a politician’s not-bad policies simply because I dislike him — on the contrary, I only criticise policies I believe are bad. For example, despite my deep contempt for Trump, I still expressed support for several of his policies in my piece “評川普上台後的九條新政“.

So when I say “America has been totally defeated," I am not being alarmist, nor am I venting anger.

Before the US and Israel launched the war on February 28, Iran had only threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz — it never dreamed of actually controlling and administering it.

“Blockade" and “control" are worlds apart.

The Houthi militia once blockaded the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. But they were a million miles from actually controlling it.

A terrorist firing a sniper rifle sporadically from a distance can empty Times Square in New York. But is that anywhere close to him controlling Times Square — collecting rent from every business there?

Yet now, Iran has begun charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz a staggering $3 million per vessel. And Trump’s response?

“We could form a joint venture with Iran and collect the fees together."

This implies two things:

First, Trump has acknowledged Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran had no sovereignty, on what basis could it charge fees? Why can’t the US go and collect fees in China’s Yellow Sea? Why can’t Australia go and collect fees in Turkey’s Bosphorus Strait? Because they have no sovereignty there — correct?

Second, bandits seizes a hilltop and charges every traveller and merchant passing along the road below. The authorities being unable to defeat the bandits is forgivable. But if those same authorities then set up their own checkpoint downstream to rob the already-robbed travellers a second time — can you still call them authorities? Aren’t they just bandits themselves?

And all of this in just ten years.

Ten years ago, America was the beacon of freedom and moral high ground that all the world’s oppressed peoples looked up to.

Ten years later, America is a fucking bandit — and a pathetic one who has been beaten into submission by another bandit a hundred times weaker than itself.

Yes, most of Iran’s military-industrial and nuclear facilities have been destroyed. But the point is: from now on, the US and Israel will never dare strike Iran again. That single fact determines everything.

Through this war, Iran has learned that the reason it ultimately prevailed is the missiles and drones it preserved deep inside underground tunnels. Going forward, Iran will invest ten times the resources into expanding its underground tunnel network, moving missile and drone factories and warehouses underground too. China and Russia will certainly provide them with ever more advanced missile and drone technology. If the US and Israel strike Iran again, Iran will launch even more devastating attacks on the critically important oil, gas, and desalination facilities of surrounding countries, and blockade the Strait of Hormuz once more. This time the US and Israel were powerless to stop it — next time they will be even more powerless.

So unless the US and the world are prepared to go all-in — launching a much larger, sustained, relentless campaign against Iran, even deploying hundreds of thousands of ground troops — Iran will from this point on be free to develop its military strength undisturbed. Toll collection on Hormuz will dramatically increase its revenues. Within a few years, Iran’s military will be far stronger, and it will be the same if not more hostile toward the US and Israel. Hamas and Hezbollah will both make comebacks, stronger than before. Iran may ultimately join the nuclear club.

So Trump has absolutely succeeded in making Iran great again.

In my earlier pieces " The Consequences of Trump’s Reckless War: The Fall of Taiwan is Almost Inevitable" and " The Prelude to Taiwan’s Fall Has Begun," I have already fully elaborated on the consequences of America’s catastrophic defeat. So Trump has absolutely succeeded in making China great again.

Russia’s oil revenues have now surged sharply. A recently leaked tapping of a phone call between the Hungarian Foreign Minister and the Russian Foreign Minister sounded nothing like a conversation between two foreign ministers of independent sovereign nations — it was the spitting image of an FSB spy talking to his handler. And yet Trump continues to fully back Orbán, with Vance even personally travelling to Hungary to show his support.

Without a doubt, Trump has absolutely succeeded in making Russia great again.

Only America and its former democratic allies are suffering — from soaring oil prices and an ever more aggressive Russia.

MAGA: Make Adversaries Great Again.

長期跟蹤我的讀者都知道，我從來不會爲了證明自己正確而歪曲事實，也不會把對一個政客的好惡放在事實之上——我不會因為厭惡一個政客就去抨擊他的本來不壞的政策，相反，我縂是因爲不喜其政策才抨擊他。比如，雖然我對川普深惡痛絕，仍然在《評川普上台後的九條新政》一文中對川普的多條政策表示支持。

所以，當我說“美國完敗”時，我不是在危言聳聽，不是在發泄憤怒。

在二月二十八日美以發動戰爭前，伊朗只是威脅封鎖霍爾穆斯海峽，它做夢都沒想過控制它。

“封鎖”和“控制”二個概念天差地別。

一個恐怖分子通過在遠處用狙擊槍零星開槍，就可以封鎖紐約時代廣場，讓它空無一人，對不對？

但這離他控制時代廣場，開始對所有商戶和廣告收租金，是不是差了十萬八千裏？

而現在，伊朗已經開始對通過霍爾穆斯海峽的船隻收每艘三百萬美元的巨額費用。這意味著實際控制。

美國打這場戰爭，死了人，傷了上百，花了上千億美元，昔日盟友們損失了上萬億甚至好幾萬億（ChatGPT），唯一的長久後果就是伊朗獲得了它以前做夢都不敢想的霍爾慕斯海峽的控制權！

而弗拉基米爾·川普的反應：

“我們可以和伊朗成立合資公司，一起收費。”

這意味著二間事：

第一，弗拉基米爾·承認了伊朗對霍爾穆斯海峽的主權。如果伊朗沒有主權，憑什麽收費？爲什麽美國不能跑到中國的黃海去收費？爲什麽澳大利亞不能跑到土耳其的博斯普魯斯海峽去收費？因爲他們沒有主權，對不對？

第二，土匪占山爲王，對所有通過山下那條交通要道的行人商旅收費。官府打不過土匪，可以原諒，但官府去那條路的下游設卡，對被搶劫了的行人進行第二次搶劫，這還叫官府嗎？？？這特麽不是土匪嗎？

僅僅十年呀！

十年前，美國是地球上所有被壓迫的人所向往的自由燈塔和道德高地。

十年后，美國就特麽是個土匪，而且是個被一個比自己實力小百倍的土匪打服了的窩囊廢。

不錯，伊朗的大多數軍力、軍工、核工業設施都被摧毀了，但問題是，從此美國、以色列再也不敢打伊朗了。這一點決定一切。

通過這次戰爭，伊朗發現，自己之所以獲得最後勝利，就是因爲自己在深深隧道裏保存下來的導彈和無人機。以後他們一定會投入十倍的資源去擴大地下隧道網絡，將導彈、無人機生產厰和倉庫也轉入地下，中俄一定會爲其提供更加先進的導彈、無人機技術。如果美以再次打擊伊朗，伊朗將對周圍國家的對世界極其重要的油氣設施、海水淡化厰等發起更加致命的打擊，並再次封鎖霍爾姆斯海峽。這次美以對此無計可施，到時會更加無計可施。

所以，除非美國和世界豁出去了，對伊朗發起更大規模的、長期不停的打擊，甚至出動幾十萬地面部隊，否則，伊朗從此可以不受打擾地發展軍力，霍爾姆斯海峽的收費將使其財政收入大幅度提升，幾年之後，伊朗軍力將更强大，更敵視美國和以色列，哈馬斯、真主黨都將捲土重來並更加强大，伊朗還可能最終成爲擁核國家。

2025年2月16日，弗拉基米爾·川普剛剛上臺，我就寫了《川普：新時代的任尚》：

公元102年，西域（新疆）都护班超退休，返回洛阳。朝廷府派一位以能幹聞名的的大將任尚接替。上任前，任尚向班超求教，班超回答：

“塞外的中国官员，差不多在国内都犯过错误才出塞贖罪，外国人更是各懷企图，很难使其滿意，却很容易反叛。你的性情太严，水至清則無魚。凡事应盡量简单，分层负责，你只总揽大纲，不拘小节。”

任尚出來對隨從說：

”班超名聲很大，我以爲是何等英雄，卻原來是一個凡夫俗子。“

班超平定西域后任都護三十年。任尚接任后五年就在西域激起大亂，中國失去了西域。

我的預言應驗了，但沒有完全應驗，因爲任尚花了五年將班超經營了三十一年的西域搞砸，而川普僅僅用了一年，就將先賢們用二百年年積纍下的美國的軟實力和二戰中一百多萬盟軍生命換來的八十年的戰後新秩序徹底摧毀。

任尚想做對國家好的事情，只是無能自大；而弗拉基米爾則是為敵人俄國工作。

弗拉基米爾·川普絕對做到了讓伊朗再次偉大。

在《川普輕啟戰端的後果：台灣的淪陷幾乎已成定局》和《台灣淪陷的前奏開始了》中，我已經充分闡述了美國這場慘敗的結果。所以，弗拉基米爾絕對做到了讓中國再次偉大。

俄羅斯現在的石油收入陡增。最近匈牙利外長和俄國外長之間的通話監聽被公佈，根本不是二個彼此獨立的主權國家外長之間的通話，而是活脫脫的FSB間諜和F上綫之間的通話。就這樣，川普仍然全力挺奧爾班，萬斯甚至親自去匈牙利去為他站臺。

毫無疑問，弗拉基米爾絕對做到了讓俄國再次偉大。

只有美國和昔日的民主盟友們因爲高漲的油價和越來越咄咄逼人的俄國深受其害。

MAGA: Make Adversaries Great Again.

Recently I saw news that Taiwanese people have begun leaving en masse, fleeing the prospect of future forced reunification by the mainland.

These people are Taiwan’s elite class. Only they have the financial means to relocate their entire families overseas, and only they have the basic intelligence to know that after forced reunification, Taiwan will be nothing like what the CCP has promised.

The loss of this elite class will begin to erode Taiwan’s financial strength and its capacity to resist the CCP’s political and military pressure. More fatally, it will trigger a vicious cycle that keeps accelerating: the more of them who leave, the higher the proportion of CCP-brainwashed lower-class Taiwanese, the stronger the KMT becomes, the less capable Taiwan is of resisting the CCP, the greater the likelihood of being taken back by the CCP, and the faster the elite drain accelerates.

Once this vicious cycle begins, it cannot be stopped — unless there is a massive external factor, such as the CCP imploding, or suffering a catastrophic defeat in a large-scale conflict with the US military and fundamentally changing course. But as I argued in The Consequences of Trump’s Reckless War: The Fall of Taiwan is Almost Inevitable, to truly defeat China militarily, the US national debt would need to reach 50 or even 100 trillion dollars — it would have gone bankrupt many times over. The only remaining hope for US intervention against forced reunification was for America to send troops while its allies footed the bill — but Comrade Vladimir Trump has alienated every one of America’s allies and is pushing to withdraw from NATO, all on the orders of his boss Putin, effectively sealing off that path entirely.

The CCP has been threatening Taiwan for decades, and the international community has long been surprised by how unconcerned Taiwanese people seemed. So why are Taiwan’s elites afraid now?

Two reasons:

1. After Trump came to power, Taiwan’s elite class lost confidence in the United States.
2. After the KMT began acting as the CCP’s inside agents without any pretence of concealment, and Taiwanese people nonetheless refused to recall them, Taiwan’s elite class lost confidence in Taiwan’s own political system.

As long as Taiwanese stood united, even without US participation in the war, they would still have a solid chance of repelling forced reunification and defending their democracy and dignity — as I wrote in 預言台海之戰全過程(Prophecy: The Full Course of the Taiwan Strait War).

Taiwan’s foundation was the entire Chinese elite class that fled the mainland in 1949. That is precisely why Taiwan was able to transition from dictatorship to democracy without bloodshed, and why its economy has flourished. But the rise of the internet has allowed the CCP to brainwash Taiwanese people through apps like Xiaohongshu and ByteDance without needing to control Taiwan’s mainstream media. Combined with the deeply ingrained failings of the Chinese nation (see 評判式思維是中华民族千年愚昧的根源 Critical Thinking Is the Root of a Thousand Years of Chinese Ignorance), Taiwanese people have gradually been dumbed down by the CCP, and the process of their fall has begun.

Will Hong Kong’s suffocating red terror be the future of Taiwan after reunification?

No. Taiwan’s future will be much more miserable than Hong Kong.

In fact, it will be even worse than Xinjiang.

Why?

Because the strait between China and Hong Kong Island is only five kilometres wide. The CCP can deploy ten divisions there at any time, and artillery can easily cover all of Hong Kong without needing to cross water — so the CCP will never worry about losing physical control of Hong Kong.

The Taiwan Strait, at its narrowest, is still 130 kilometres wide. After taking back Taiwan, if the CCP stations only 50,000 troops, it won’t be able to suppress a Taiwanese uprising, and the US and Japan could easily retake the island at any time. But if it stations 500,000 or even a million troops, it becomes an unbearable long-term burden for China — and once the US and Japan use their overwhelming naval and air superiority to cut off the Taiwan Strait, supplying that many troops with weapons, ammunition, and even food becomes a serious problem. Throughout history, military effectiveness has never simply been a matter of numbers, precisely because logistics could become the bottleneck.

Therefore, after retaking Taiwan, the CCP will forever harbour an extremely acute sense of insecurity, and will feel an urgent, pressing need to fully subjugate the Taiwanese people.

So, once CCP occupy Taiwan, they will immediately impose indefinite martial law and silencing of speech — at which point the most optimistic fantasy a Taiwanese person could hold would be the hope of going Hong Kong, that “paradise of freedom." At the same time, the CCP will immediately launch an extremely harsh and possibly bloody purge, sending several million Taiwanese with independent thinking ability into re-education camps — similar to Stalin’s purge of the Polish elite after he took Poland. How to send millions of people into re-education camps is something the CCP has already mastered through years of practice in Xinjiang. At that point, large numbers of Taiwanese will join the CCP’s machinery of iron fist— and they will persecute their fellow Taiwanese with even more zeal than the state security officials sent from the mainland, just as large number of Germans joined East Germany’s secret police, the Stasi, becoming a core force in the persecution of the German people. At that point, a Taiwanese going out to buy groceries might be stopped and have their phone searched three times. Taiwan will one hundred percent become more Xinjiang than Xinjiang itself — because the CCP’s armoured divisions can roll into Xinjiang at any time, while the Taiwan Strait is 130 kilometres wide; also because Taiwanese people have seen what democracy is, and are more educated — making them far more dangerous to the CCP than Xinjiang’s population, therefore requiring far stricter control than Xinjiang.

What fate awaits the CCP’s fifth column in Taiwan, the KMT, at that point?

You only need to look at what happened to the KMTs who stayed behind after the mainland fell. The vast majority, those without fame or standing, were simply shot. Those with reputations — such as Fu Zuoyi and Song Qingling — were given nominal posts and placed under strict supervision. You want to leave the island, or send your children abroad? Not a chance. If Fu Zuoyi had been content with his circumstances after the mainland fell, would he have cut off all ties with his daughter who had been a CCP underground agent and convinced him to surrender? Ten years later, once the CCP feels Taiwan has stabilised and no longer needs the KMT, the KMT politicians will fare worse than ordinary Taiwanese — because in the CCP’s eyes, they were once politicians within a democratic system, which makes them more dangerous than the ideologically simple lower-class Taiwanese.

By then, the second generation of Taiwanese, having lived under control even stricter than Xinjiang’s, will be more ignorant than mainlanders.

By then, the last candle of hope for the Chinese nation will have been snuffed out.

Pan-pinks of Taiwan — your haydays are coming.