匈牙利总理奥尔班自从上台以来，采取各种措施打压政治对手，迫害自由媒体，忠心耿耿地做普京的马仔。同為普京的馬仔，弗拉基米爾•川普把奥尔班當作偶像，後者給他提供一個把民主國家轉向獨裁的範本。

然而，当奥尔班在大选失败後体面优雅地接受了失败，并向政治对手表示祝贺時，川普抑郁了。

因为他的崇拜的偶像没有下降到他那麼低的高度，去拒绝接受大选结果，去指责政治对手舞弊。川普郁闷地发现，在世界上所有民主国家里，他找不到一个下賤到他的高度的人，即使是那個被整個歐洲嘲笑、厭惡、排斥的奧爾班，也比他優雅一個等級。

Long-time followers of my writing know that I never distort facts to prove myself right, nor do I let my personal feelings about a politician override the facts. I don’t attack a politician’s not-bad policies simply because I dislike him — on the contrary, I only criticise policies I believe are bad. For example, despite my deep contempt for Trump, I still expressed support for several of his policies in my piece “評川普上台後的九條新政“.

So when I say “America has been totally defeated," I am not being alarmist, nor am I venting anger.

Before the US and Israel launched the war on February 28, Iran had only threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz — it never dreamed of actually controlling and administering it.

“Blockade" and “control" are worlds apart.

The Houthi militia once blockaded the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. But they were a million miles from actually controlling it.

A terrorist firing a sniper rifle sporadically from a distance can empty Times Square in New York. But is that anywhere close to him controlling Times Square — collecting rent from every business there?

Yet now, Iran has begun charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz a staggering $3 million per vessel. And Trump’s response?

“We could form a joint venture with Iran and collect the fees together."

This implies two things:

First, Trump has acknowledged Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran had no sovereignty, on what basis could it charge fees? Why can’t the US go and collect fees in China’s Yellow Sea? Why can’t Australia go and collect fees in Turkey’s Bosphorus Strait? Because they have no sovereignty there — correct?

Second, bandits seizes a hilltop and charges every traveller and merchant passing along the road below. The authorities being unable to defeat the bandits is forgivable. But if those same authorities then set up their own checkpoint downstream to rob the already-robbed travellers a second time — can you still call them authorities? Aren’t they just bandits themselves?

And all of this in just ten years.

Ten years ago, America was the beacon of freedom and moral high ground that all the world’s oppressed peoples looked up to.

Ten years later, America is a fucking bandit — and a pathetic one who has been beaten into submission by another bandit a hundred times weaker than itself.

Yes, most of Iran’s military-industrial and nuclear facilities have been destroyed. But the point is: from now on, the US and Israel will never dare strike Iran again. That single fact determines everything.

Through this war, Iran has learned that the reason it ultimately prevailed is the missiles and drones it preserved deep inside underground tunnels. Going forward, Iran will invest ten times the resources into expanding its underground tunnel network, moving missile and drone factories and warehouses underground too. China and Russia will certainly provide them with ever more advanced missile and drone technology. If the US and Israel strike Iran again, Iran will launch even more devastating attacks on the critically important oil, gas, and desalination facilities of surrounding countries, and blockade the Strait of Hormuz once more. This time the US and Israel were powerless to stop it — next time they will be even more powerless.

So unless the US and the world are prepared to go all-in — launching a much larger, sustained, relentless campaign against Iran, even deploying hundreds of thousands of ground troops — Iran will from this point on be free to develop its military strength undisturbed. Toll collection on Hormuz will dramatically increase its revenues. Within a few years, Iran’s military will be far stronger, and it will be the same if not more hostile toward the US and Israel. Hamas and Hezbollah will both make comebacks, stronger than before. Iran may ultimately join the nuclear club.

So Trump has absolutely succeeded in making Iran great again.

In my earlier pieces " The Consequences of Trump’s Reckless War: The Fall of Taiwan is Almost Inevitable" and " The Prelude to Taiwan’s Fall Has Begun," I have already fully elaborated on the consequences of America’s catastrophic defeat. So Trump has absolutely succeeded in making China great again.

Russia’s oil revenues have now surged sharply. A recently leaked tapping of a phone call between the Hungarian Foreign Minister and the Russian Foreign Minister sounded nothing like a conversation between two foreign ministers of independent sovereign nations — it was the spitting image of an FSB spy talking to his handler. And yet Trump continues to fully back Orbán, with Vance even personally travelling to Hungary to show his support.

Without a doubt, Trump has absolutely succeeded in making Russia great again.

Only America and its former democratic allies are suffering — from soaring oil prices and an ever more aggressive Russia.

MAGA: Make Adversaries Great Again.

長期跟蹤我的讀者都知道，我從來不會爲了證明自己正確而歪曲事實，也不會把對一個政客的好惡放在事實之上——我不會因為厭惡一個政客就去抨擊他的本來不壞的政策，相反，我縂是因爲不喜其政策才抨擊他。比如，雖然我對川普深惡痛絕，仍然在《評川普上台後的九條新政》一文中對川普的多條政策表示支持。

所以，當我說“美國完敗”時，我不是在危言聳聽，不是在發泄憤怒。

在二月二十八日美以發動戰爭前，伊朗只是威脅封鎖霍爾穆斯海峽，它做夢都沒想過控制它。

“封鎖”和“控制”二個概念天差地別。

一個恐怖分子通過在遠處用狙擊槍零星開槍，就可以封鎖紐約時代廣場，讓它空無一人，對不對？

但這離他控制時代廣場，開始對所有商戶和廣告收租金，是不是差了十萬八千裏？

而現在，伊朗已經開始對通過霍爾穆斯海峽的船隻收每艘三百萬美元的巨額費用。這意味著實際控制。

美國打這場戰爭，死了人，傷了上百，花了上千億美元，昔日盟友們損失了上萬億甚至好幾萬億（ChatGPT），唯一的長久後果就是伊朗獲得了它以前做夢都不敢想的霍爾慕斯海峽的控制權！

而弗拉基米爾·川普的反應：

“我們可以和伊朗成立合資公司，一起收費。”

這意味著二間事：

第一，弗拉基米爾·承認了伊朗對霍爾穆斯海峽的主權。如果伊朗沒有主權，憑什麽收費？爲什麽美國不能跑到中國的黃海去收費？爲什麽澳大利亞不能跑到土耳其的博斯普魯斯海峽去收費？因爲他們沒有主權，對不對？

第二，土匪占山爲王，對所有通過山下那條交通要道的行人商旅收費。官府打不過土匪，可以原諒，但官府去那條路的下游設卡，對被搶劫了的行人進行第二次搶劫，這還叫官府嗎？？？這特麽不是土匪嗎？

僅僅十年呀！

十年前，美國是地球上所有被壓迫的人所向往的自由燈塔和道德高地。

十年后，美國就特麽是個土匪，而且是個被一個比自己實力小百倍的土匪打服了的窩囊廢。

不錯，伊朗的大多數軍力、軍工、核工業設施都被摧毀了，但問題是，從此美國、以色列再也不敢打伊朗了。這一點決定一切。

通過這次戰爭，伊朗發現，自己之所以獲得最後勝利，就是因爲自己在深深隧道裏保存下來的導彈和無人機。以後他們一定會投入十倍的資源去擴大地下隧道網絡，將導彈、無人機生產厰和倉庫也轉入地下，中俄一定會爲其提供更加先進的導彈、無人機技術。如果美以再次打擊伊朗，伊朗將對周圍國家的對世界極其重要的油氣設施、海水淡化厰等發起更加致命的打擊，並再次封鎖霍爾姆斯海峽。這次美以對此無計可施，到時會更加無計可施。

所以，除非美國和世界豁出去了，對伊朗發起更大規模的、長期不停的打擊，甚至出動幾十萬地面部隊，否則，伊朗從此可以不受打擾地發展軍力，霍爾姆斯海峽的收費將使其財政收入大幅度提升，幾年之後，伊朗軍力將更强大，更敵視美國和以色列，哈馬斯、真主黨都將捲土重來並更加强大，伊朗還可能最終成爲擁核國家。

2025年2月16日，弗拉基米爾·川普剛剛上臺，我就寫了《川普：新時代的任尚》：

公元102年，西域（新疆）都护班超退休，返回洛阳。朝廷府派一位以能幹聞名的的大將任尚接替。上任前，任尚向班超求教，班超回答：

“塞外的中国官员，差不多在国内都犯过错误才出塞贖罪，外国人更是各懷企图，很难使其滿意，却很容易反叛。你的性情太严，水至清則無魚。凡事应盡量简单，分层负责，你只总揽大纲，不拘小节。”

任尚出來對隨從說：

”班超名聲很大，我以爲是何等英雄，卻原來是一個凡夫俗子。“

班超平定西域后任都護三十年。任尚接任后五年就在西域激起大亂，中國失去了西域。

我的預言應驗了，但沒有完全應驗，因爲任尚花了五年將班超經營了三十一年的西域搞砸，而川普僅僅用了一年，就將先賢們用二百年年積纍下的美國的軟實力和二戰中一百多萬盟軍生命換來的八十年的戰後新秩序徹底摧毀。

任尚想做對國家好的事情，只是無能自大；而弗拉基米爾則是為敵人俄國工作。

弗拉基米爾·川普絕對做到了讓伊朗再次偉大。

在《川普輕啟戰端的後果：台灣的淪陷幾乎已成定局》和《台灣淪陷的前奏開始了》中，我已經充分闡述了美國這場慘敗的結果。所以，弗拉基米爾絕對做到了讓中國再次偉大。

俄羅斯現在的石油收入陡增。最近匈牙利外長和俄國外長之間的通話監聽被公佈，根本不是二個彼此獨立的主權國家外長之間的通話，而是活脫脫的FSB間諜和F上綫之間的通話。就這樣，川普仍然全力挺奧爾班，萬斯甚至親自去匈牙利去為他站臺。

毫無疑問，弗拉基米爾絕對做到了讓俄國再次偉大。

只有美國和昔日的民主盟友們因爲高漲的油價和越來越咄咄逼人的俄國深受其害。

MAGA: Make Adversaries Great Again.

Recently I saw news that Taiwanese people have begun leaving en masse, fleeing the prospect of future forced reunification by the mainland.

These people are Taiwan’s elite class. Only they have the financial means to relocate their entire families overseas, and only they have the basic intelligence to know that after forced reunification, Taiwan will be nothing like what the CCP has promised.

The loss of this elite class will begin to erode Taiwan’s financial strength and its capacity to resist the CCP’s political and military pressure. More fatally, it will trigger a vicious cycle that keeps accelerating: the more of them who leave, the higher the proportion of CCP-brainwashed lower-class Taiwanese, the stronger the KMT becomes, the less capable Taiwan is of resisting the CCP, the greater the likelihood of being taken back by the CCP, and the faster the elite drain accelerates.

Once this vicious cycle begins, it cannot be stopped — unless there is a massive external factor, such as the CCP imploding, or suffering a catastrophic defeat in a large-scale conflict with the US military and fundamentally changing course. But as I argued in The Consequences of Trump’s Reckless War: The Fall of Taiwan is Almost Inevitable, to truly defeat China militarily, the US national debt would need to reach 50 or even 100 trillion dollars — it would have gone bankrupt many times over. The only remaining hope for US intervention against forced reunification was for America to send troops while its allies footed the bill — but Comrade Vladimir Trump has alienated every one of America’s allies and is pushing to withdraw from NATO, all on the orders of his boss Putin, effectively sealing off that path entirely.

The CCP has been threatening Taiwan for decades, and the international community has long been surprised by how unconcerned Taiwanese people seemed. So why are Taiwan’s elites afraid now?

Two reasons:

1. After Trump came to power, Taiwan’s elite class lost confidence in the United States.
2. After the KMT began acting as the CCP’s inside agents without any pretence of concealment, and Taiwanese people nonetheless refused to recall them, Taiwan’s elite class lost confidence in Taiwan’s own political system.

As long as Taiwanese stood united, even without US participation in the war, they would still have a solid chance of repelling forced reunification and defending their democracy and dignity — as I wrote in 預言台海之戰全過程(Prophecy: The Full Course of the Taiwan Strait War).

Taiwan’s foundation was the entire Chinese elite class that fled the mainland in 1949. That is precisely why Taiwan was able to transition from dictatorship to democracy without bloodshed, and why its economy has flourished. But the rise of the internet has allowed the CCP to brainwash Taiwanese people through apps like Xiaohongshu and ByteDance without needing to control Taiwan’s mainstream media. Combined with the deeply ingrained failings of the Chinese nation (see 評判式思維是中华民族千年愚昧的根源 Critical Thinking Is the Root of a Thousand Years of Chinese Ignorance), Taiwanese people have gradually been dumbed down by the CCP, and the process of their fall has begun.

Will Hong Kong’s suffocating red terror be the future of Taiwan after reunification?

No. Taiwan’s future will be much more miserable than Hong Kong.

In fact, it will be even worse than Xinjiang.

Why?

Because the strait between China and Hong Kong Island is only five kilometres wide. The CCP can deploy ten divisions there at any time, and artillery can easily cover all of Hong Kong without needing to cross water — so the CCP will never worry about losing physical control of Hong Kong.

The Taiwan Strait, at its narrowest, is still 130 kilometres wide. After taking back Taiwan, if the CCP stations only 50,000 troops, it won’t be able to suppress a Taiwanese uprising, and the US and Japan could easily retake the island at any time. But if it stations 500,000 or even a million troops, it becomes an unbearable long-term burden for China — and once the US and Japan use their overwhelming naval and air superiority to cut off the Taiwan Strait, supplying that many troops with weapons, ammunition, and even food becomes a serious problem. Throughout history, military effectiveness has never simply been a matter of numbers, precisely because logistics could become the bottleneck.

Therefore, after retaking Taiwan, the CCP will forever harbour an extremely acute sense of insecurity, and will feel an urgent, pressing need to fully subjugate the Taiwanese people.

So, once CCP occupy Taiwan, they will immediately impose indefinite martial law and silencing of speech — at which point the most optimistic fantasy a Taiwanese person could hold would be the hope of going Hong Kong, that “paradise of freedom." At the same time, the CCP will immediately launch an extremely harsh and possibly bloody purge, sending several million Taiwanese with independent thinking ability into re-education camps — similar to Stalin’s purge of the Polish elite after he took Poland. How to send millions of people into re-education camps is something the CCP has already mastered through years of practice in Xinjiang. At that point, large numbers of Taiwanese will join the CCP’s machinery of iron fist— and they will persecute their fellow Taiwanese with even more zeal than the state security officials sent from the mainland, just as large number of Germans joined East Germany’s secret police, the Stasi, becoming a core force in the persecution of the German people. At that point, a Taiwanese going out to buy groceries might be stopped and have their phone searched three times. Taiwan will one hundred percent become more Xinjiang than Xinjiang itself — because the CCP’s armoured divisions can roll into Xinjiang at any time, while the Taiwan Strait is 130 kilometres wide; also because Taiwanese people have seen what democracy is, and are more educated — making them far more dangerous to the CCP than Xinjiang’s population, therefore requiring far stricter control than Xinjiang.

What fate awaits the CCP’s fifth column in Taiwan, the KMT, at that point?

You only need to look at what happened to the KMTs who stayed behind after the mainland fell. The vast majority, those without fame or standing, were simply shot. Those with reputations — such as Fu Zuoyi and Song Qingling — were given nominal posts and placed under strict supervision. You want to leave the island, or send your children abroad? Not a chance. If Fu Zuoyi had been content with his circumstances after the mainland fell, would he have cut off all ties with his daughter who had been a CCP underground agent and convinced him to surrender? Ten years later, once the CCP feels Taiwan has stabilised and no longer needs the KMT, the KMT politicians will fare worse than ordinary Taiwanese — because in the CCP’s eyes, they were once politicians within a democratic system, which makes them more dangerous than the ideologically simple lower-class Taiwanese.

By then, the second generation of Taiwanese, having lived under control even stricter than Xinjiang’s, will be more ignorant than mainlanders.

By then, the last candle of hope for the Chinese nation will have been snuffed out.

Pan-pinks of Taiwan — your haydays are coming.

最近看到新聞，台灣人開始成規模出走，逃避未來的武統。

要知道，這些人是台灣的精英階層，只有他們才有財力舉家跨國移民，才有起碼的智慧，知道武統後台灣絕不會像中共許諾的那樣好。

這個精英階層的流失會開始縮減台灣的財力和抵抗中共文攻武略的能力，更致命的是，它會開啟一個不斷加速的惡性循環的過程：精英階層走得越多，那些被中共的統戰洗腦的底層台灣人的比例越高，國民党越強大，台灣越無力抵禦中共的文攻武略，被中共收回的可能性越大，精英階層流失就越快。

這個惡性循環一旦開始，就不可能停下來，除非有巨大的外部因素，比如中共內爆或中共在與美軍的大規模衝突中慘敗，徹底改弦更張。而在《川普輕啟戰端的後果：台灣的淪陷幾乎已成定局》中我們知道，要徹底打服中國，美國的債務需要達到50甚至100萬億，早就破產N遍了。唯一的美國介入武統的希望，就是美國出兵，全世界的盟友出錢，而弗拉基米爾▪︎川普同志把美國的盟友得罪遍，又要退出北約，就是奉老闆普京之命徹底堵死這條路。

中共威脅台灣幾十年了，國際上一直對台灣人毫不擔心感到驚訝，爲什麽現在台灣的精英們害怕了？

因爲二點：

1. 在川普上臺后，台灣的精英階層對美國失去了信心。

2. 在國民黨不再有任何掩飾地做中共的内應，而台灣人卻拒絕罷免他們后，精英階層對台灣的體制失去了信心。

本來，只要台灣人眾志成城，即使美國不參戰，仍然有把握擊退武統，維護自己的民主和尊嚴，就如我在《預言台海之戰全過程》中所寫。

台灣的根基是1949年從大陸逃去的整個中國精英階層，這就是為什麼台灣能夠不流血從獨裁轉變為民主，經濟蒸蒸日上的原因。但互聯網的興起使得中共不必控制台灣的主流媒體，就可以通過小紅書、字節跳動等應用對台灣人進行洗腦，再加上中華民族的根深蒂固的劣根性（見《評判式思維是中华民族千年愚昧的根源》），台灣人還是被中共逐漸愚昧化，開啟了淪陷的過程。

香港現在的令人窒息的紅色恐怖會是台灣的未來嗎？

不會！台灣的未來會比香港悲慘得多。

實際上，它的未來會比新疆還要悲慘。

不必說我在販賣恐懼。有本事你反駁我下面的分析。

中國和香港島之間的海峽寬度只有五公里，中共隨時可以把十個師的兵力派過去，火砲不用渡海就可以輕鬆覆蓋香港全境，所以中共永遠不會擔心失去對香港的物理控制。

而台灣海峽最窄處也有130公里。中共收回台灣後，如果只駐軍五萬，台灣人暴動就會彈壓不住，美日隨時可以輕鬆奪回。而如果駐軍五十萬甚至一百萬，會成為中國無法承受的長期負擔，而且一旦美日靠絕對優勢的海空軍截斷台灣海峽，這麼多軍隊的武器彈藥甚至糧草的供應就成了大問題。自古用兵都不是人數越多越好，原因就是給養會成為瓶頸。

所以，中共在收回台灣之後會永遠有極其強烈的不安全感。對不對？

一旦一個極權統治感到極其不安全，它會怎麼做？

所以，一旦中共軍隊佔領台灣，一定會立即實施無限期的軍管和言禁，切斷互聯網，屆時台灣人最美好的幻想就是能去香港這樣的“自由天堂”。

同時，中共會立刻開始極其苛嚴甚至血腥的大清洗，把幾百萬有獨立思考能力的台灣人關進再教育營，和斯大林吞併波蘭後對波蘭精英階層的清洗類似。如何把幾百萬人關進再教育營，中共已經在新疆練得駕輕就熟。

屆時，會有大批台灣人加入中共的統治機器，他們迫害同胞台灣人會比大陸過來的國安還要賣力，就好像當年大批德國人加入東德的秘密警察史塔西，成為迫害德國人的骨幹。

屆時，台灣人出門買一個菜可能被截停查手機三次，台灣百分百會比新疆還新疆，因為中共的裝甲師可以隨時開進新疆，而台灣海峽130公里寬，還因為台灣人見過市面，知道民主是什麼，有知識，所以對中共來說，他們比新疆人危險得多，所以需要比新疆嚴苛得多的管控。

屆時中共的走狗國民党會是什麼下場？

你只需要看看大陸淪陷後留下來的國民党就知道了。那些沒名沒姓的絕大多數都被槍斃了，那些有聲望的，比如傅作義、宋慶齡等，則被給個虛職，嚴格管控起來。到時候你或子女想離島？門都沒有！如果傅作義喜歡大陸淪陷後自己的境遇，會和當了中共地下黨說服自己投誠的女兒老死不相往來？

十年后，中共覺得台灣穩定下來了，不需要國民黨這幫人了，國民黨政客們會比普通台灣人還要慘，因爲在中共眼裏，他們曾經是台灣民主體制中的政客，他們比思想簡單的底層台灣人更危險，獨裁者自古就喜歡愚昧，忌憚智慧，要不斯大林幹嘛要大肆屠殺波蘭的手無寸鐵的醫生、律師、藝術家、教授？

屆時，經過比新疆還要嚴苛的管控的第二代尤其是第三代台灣人，會比大陸人還要愚昧。

屆時，中華民族最後的希望之燭就熄滅了。

台灣讀者問我：

“我們討厭民進党，所以選國民党，有什麼錯？！”

沒錯。

你們的智慧一定會得到令你們惊掉下巴的回報。

因為這樣他就有台階下，有停戰甚至承認霍爾木茲從此以後由伊朗控制的藉口：

“不是因為我們無法取勝，而是因為我們要拯救我們的飛行員。”

伊朗絕對不會殺害或者虐待美軍飛行員，因為那樣對他們沒有任何好處，只有極大的壞處。伊朗會善待這個飛行員，然後在通過中間人（比如巴基斯坦）達成秘密協議後釋放，而川普則會感謝伊朗，然後撤軍。

伊朗可能從此控制霍爾慕斯海峽，對通過的船隻收費，國家收入比戰前陡增，加大對核武的投資和對哈馬斯、真主黨、胡塞等恐怖組織的支持，而債台高築的美國再也不敢干預。

The CCP learned four lessons from the American-Iranian War:

1. Attempting reunification by force through conventional warfare would result in a crushing defeat for the CCP

Both Iran and Venezuela deployed Russia’s S-300 air defence missiles and China’s supposedly high-tech radar — claimed to be capable of detecting stealth aircraft — yet American and Israeli warplanes swept through as if entering an undefended land. After two weeks of high-intensity airstrikes, the US and Israel achieved complete air superiority over Iran. Not a single aircraft has been shot down by Iranian forces to this day.

Russia’s most advanced S-400 air defence missiles have repeatedly been destroyed in Ukraine by US-made HIMARS rockets developed twenty years ago and Army Tactical Missile Systems developed thirty years ago. By contrast, Russian forces once fired over a dozen of their latest hypersonic missiles in saturation attacks against Ukraine’s Patriot air defence systems — which entered service forty years ago — and every single one was intercepted.

This demonstrates that Russia’s air defence capability is little more than scrap metal against the US military.

It is true that there have been reports of a US F-35 sustaining combat damage and making an emergency landing at a US airbase. But this does not indicate any deficiency in US technology. In the later stages of the Pacific War, the Hellcat fighter — designed specifically to counter Japan’s Zero — enjoyed a crushing advantage over it. American pilots grew ever more experienced while Japan’s veterans died out, with new pilots thrown into combat having barely learned to take off. In the Battle of the Philippine Sea on June 19–20, 1944, experienced American pilots flying Hellcats that utterly outclassed the Zero shot down more than 300 Japanese aircrafts with ease, producing ten ace pilots in a single day. One pilot returning from the mission said: “This wasn’t aerial combat — it was a turkey shoot." And so the battle became known as the “Great Marianas Turkey Shoot." Yet even in this total dominance, the Americans still lost nearly thirty aircrafts. In contrast, during this all-out war against Iran, US forces flew thousands of sorties, struck between 5,000 and 7,000 targets, suffered combat damage to only one aircraft — which still flew back and landed — and lost not a single pilot. This, precisely, demonstrates the crushing technological superiority of the US military.

It is universally acknowledged — and Chinese military experts themselves admit — that China’s radar technology lags Russia’s by ten years. This means that if the US military were ever to launch a large-scale assault on CCP forces, the PLA’s air defence systems would make Russian scrap metal look sophisticated by comparison. If the PLA were to launch a conventional attack or blockade of Taiwan using warplanes, warships, and missiles, the US military and Taiwan’s forces — equipped with the latest American weapons — would thrash the PLA beyond recognition.

In fact, in my October 2021 piece “Predicting the Full Course of a Taiwan Strait War," I was forced to artificially invent a scenario in which Russia supplied the PLA with an extremely advanced S-600 missile system, causing Taiwan to lose its self-defence capability and compelling it to seek US assistance. Without that invention, Taiwan’s own forces would be enough to thrash the PLA, leaving no need for US intervention — but in that story I wanted the US to intervene, so I could show readers how the war would evolve from that point.

2. The US military’s counter-drone capability is critically deficient

The reason Russian forces cannot destroy Ukraine’s Patriot systems is that Ukraine long ago developed comprehensive countermeasures against Iran’s Shahed drones, rendering them unable to threaten the Patriots, which can therefore concentrate fully on Russia’s high-end ballistic and cruise missiles.

By contrast, of the eight THAAD high-altitude missile defence systems deployed by the US in the Middle East, four have been destroyed or damaged by Iran — because THAAD is designed to counter high-altitude, high-speed ballistic missiles and cannot deal with Iran’s low-altitude, low-speed Shahed drones, and the US military’s capability against such drones is far inferior to Ukraine’s.

China’s scientific and technological capability, electronics capability, and artificial intelligence level are a hundredfold superior to Iran’s. China’s drone technology is unmatched in the world — DJI monopolises the global commercial drone market — and China’s manufacturing scale is without parallel. They are fully capable of developing drones a hundredfold more advanced than Iran’s Shaheds: for example, drones that do not rely on remote control, instead using pre-set GPS to approach the combat zone and then autonomously identifying targets through electro-optical sensors. During a military reunification, thousands of such intelligent drones flying across the strait — even if Taiwan’s various missiles achieved a 100% hit rate — would destroy only half of them at most. And China can dispatch thousands more every day. Taiwan’s air defence missiles would be exhausted, its various air and sea radar systems destroyed, and its Harpoon and Hsiung Feng anti-ship missiles rendered blind.

The same drone swarms could devastate Japan’s offensive capability, US military bases in Japan, and carrier battle groups at sea.

Four years ago, when the Ukraine war began, the US military understood that drones had completely rewritten the rules of the battlefield. Yet to this day, they remain unable to prevent the THAAD system — strategically significant, costing three to four hundred million dollars per unit, with a production cycle of four to five years — from being destroyed en masse by drones.

Taiwan’s situation is ten times worse than America’s. The US military has at least been closely tracking the Ukraine war; US weapons have faced Russian drones in actual combat; US intelligence agencies at every level have maintained close contact with the Ukrainian military. Taiwan, by contrast, has no combat experience whatsoever. The CCP’s Fifth Column in Taiwan — the KMT, which sells out Taiwan without the slightest concealment, faithfully following CCP directives step by step — means that a large proportion of Taiwanese people cannot even distinguish friend from foe. This is why the KMT, despite its blatant betrayal of Taiwan, can still win elections. As a result, Taiwan’s politics has long been in a state of semi-paralysis, incapable of the flexible responses seen in the US or Ukraine. The probability of Taiwan rapidly developing counter-drone swarm technology and deploying it at scale within two to three years is zero.

At this very moment, the CCP is certainly pouring unprecedented resources into suicide drone development.

This is one consequence of Trump recklessly starting a war in defiance of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the National Intelligence Council: exposing to the whole world the greatest vulnerability of the US and Taiwanese militaries — their lack of counter-drone capability — while China happens to be the world’s undisputed king of drones.

3. A new phenomenon in the history of warfare: winning victory simply by absorbing punishment

When Trump took office in January 2025, US national debt stood at $36.2 trillion.

Today, US national debt has already surpassed $39 trillion.

Meanwhile Iran’s attacks on surrounding nations are escalating, and it has just fired an intercontinental missile with a 4,000-kilometre range for the first time. Trump is overwhelmed with no solution in sight.

So even as Iran ratchets up the intensity of its counterattacks step by step and the Strait of Hormuz is completely cut off, Trump has begun talking about withdrawal.

China’s territory is six times Iran’s, its military personnel four times Iran’s, and its military strength twenty to thirty times Iran’s (according to Gemini’s estimates).

Even if the US military could destroy every piece of PLA equipment at zero cost to itself — by the time it had achieved complete air superiority over the Taiwan Strait and China’s coastal provinces and fully suppressed the PLA’s missile and drone capability — America’s national debt would certainly have surpassed 50, perhaps even 60 trillion dollars.

And that’s assuming US losses would be far greater than in the Iran war — which they certainly would be.

America would go bankrupt before the debt even reached 50 trillion.

And before America went bankrupt, the American people would have already voted out the government that decided to intervene militarily in the CCP’s attempt to retake Taiwan by force.

When China launches a military reunification, US intelligence will have long since gauged the CCP’s resolve and readiness for war. If the CCP merely wanted to test the waters — and Taiwan and the US are frightened off, making reunification easy — it gains a huge windfall. If the other side fights to the death, the CCP can pull back. In that case, the US would need to project an image of firm, armed intervention, hoping to frustrate the CCP’s ambitions through a swift, overwhelming victory.

However, if America finds that the CCP is like today’s Iran — absolutely determined to recover Taiwan no matter how great the losses, no matter how long it takes, no matter how many die — then America already knows it simply cannot afford this war, and therefore would certainly not intervene from the outset.

Past US presidents did not start wars lightly precisely because they didn’t need to wait for these consequences to materialise before recognising them. They had the ability to see five moves ahead on the chessboard, while redneck rabble cannot calculate moves at all — driven by fear and vanity, they play one move at a time.

This is the second consequence of Trump recklessly starting a war: exposing to the whole world America’s vulnerability — that it cannot sustain a medium-scale war.

Having seen clearly this vulnerability, the probability of the CCP making the decision to recover Taiwan at all costs, burning all bridges, has increased dramatically — because they now firmly believe this approach can deliver final victory.

Every Taiwanese political commentator, except Professor Ming Chu-cheng, is a Trump worshipper. I believe that even when Five-Star Red Flags and PLA tanks are all over the streets of Taiwan, these people will still be saying on Taiwan’s internet — more tightly controlled than the mainland’s:

“Uncle Trump allowing the PLA to occupy Taiwan is part of a great chess game to destroy the CCP. Taiwanese people simply need to patiently endure hardship and wait."

4. More than half of Americans are stupid

Because Gulf nations and the US military could not cope with Iran’s suicide drones, the US military turned to Ukraine for help. But this wounded Comrade Vladimir Trump’s vanity — too big to fit in the solar system — and so he said:

“The last thing America needs is Ukraine’s help."

Britain had been prepared to deploy its carrier battle group to the Middle East. Vladimir said:

“America has already achieved total victory — what are you British doing showing up now? America doesn’t need it."

Two days later, he begged Britain to send that carrier battle group to help. Can you guess what Britain said?

Beijingers have a dedicated term for someone like Vladimir — and it is the most fitting term possible. That term is “shǎ bī" (stupid c**t).

And this stupid c**t was not sent down by God — he was elected by more than half of Americans, and those people still firmly support him to this day.

The stupidity of Americans is matched only by that of Iranians.

Conclusion

If the CCP has seen these four points, and if Xi Jinping or his successor has the courage to burn the boats and forge ahead — rather than being a mediocre horse reluctant to leave its feedbag — then the fall of Taiwan is almost inevitable.

Unless China implodes due to its internal reasons. I will discuss this topic in the next article.

Iranian missiles struck Qatar’s world’s largest natural gas facility and Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery, which will take five to ten years to recover from, with losses in the hundreds of billions. The image of a safe haven painstakingly built by Middle Eastern nations over twenty years was shattered in an instant; Dubai, paradise for the wealthy, looks like a ghost town. The US stock market lost $3 trillion; oil prices soared across Europe and Australia, driving up all manner of costs; Australia’s central bank was forced to raise interest rates, and the economy faces recession after overheating.

In other words, America itself and all its allies have suffered deeply.

So in this world — who came out ahead?

Do you remember just two years ago? It feels like another era. Back then, America’s coalition against the CCP was as tight as an iron barrel; the CCP was like a rat crossing the street internationally; Biden had repeatedly made clear that America would militarily intervene against forced reunification. Back then, the CCP did not know America’s rare earth vulnerability or its other weaknesses. Back then, forced reunification was a pipe dream that couldn’t last much longer.

And now, Taiwan is already in the CCP’s pocket.

As oil prices double, Russia’s war funding surges — an extra $5 billion in fiscal revenue every month.

MEGA — Make Enemy Great Again.

剛剛有西方主流媒體報道，一架美軍F35在攻擊伊朗的行動中受損，飛回了美軍機場緊急降落，飛行員受傷。伊朗宣稱是被自己的放空火力擊中，並放出了一段視頻，顯示一架戰機被鎖定，幾秒鐘後一枚導彈命中戰機，戰機原地爆炸，視頻在爆炸瞬間終止。

我認為，伊朗擊中F35這件事肯定是真的，因為主流媒體都報道了，但伊朗公佈的這段視頻很可能是假的。

首先，F35的特點是隱形和極高精度的光電系統，它絕不會也完全沒有必要伊朗上空肉眼可見的二三百米高度飛行，因為沒有任何事情它不能在好幾千米甚至上萬米的高空做。在幾千米甚至上萬米的高空，肩扛式單兵導彈對它根本沒有威脅，所以它如果被擊中，一定是被伊朗裝備的S300防空導彈或類似的中高空導彈擊中的，對不對？

視頻中顯示，導彈就算沒有直接命中，也是在幾米內爆炸，爆炸的火球完全覆蓋了戰機。S300防空導彈或類似的中高空導彈在如此近距離爆炸，F35一定會被炸成碎片，又怎麼可能成功降落呢？

當然，另一個可能的解釋是觀察者、爆炸火球和F35恰好在一條直線上，所以雖然在視頻上火球完全覆蓋了F35，但彼此之間還是有幾十米的距離：

這就是為什麼視頻在爆炸瞬間戛然而止這一點非常可疑。如果視頻顯示後戰在爆炸機繼續飛行，甚至顯示部分機翼缺失，那麼視頻就完全可信了，就和F35緊急迫降的已知事實互相印證了。

為什麼伊朗偏偏要掐去爆炸後的視頻呢？

唯一的解釋是，爆炸後的視頻顯示，飛機炸成了碎片。就是說，這段視頻不是那架被損傷並迫降的F35的。

中共從美伊戰爭學到四點：

1. 靠常規戰爭手段進行武統，中共必然大敗

伊朗和委內瑞拉都部署了俄國的S300防空導彈和中國的號稱能夠發現隱形飛機的黑科技雷達，結果美以戰機長驅直入，如入無人之境，經過二週的高強度空襲，美以完全掌握了伊朗的制空權，至今尚無一架戰機被伊軍擊落。

俄國最先進的S400防空導彈在烏克蘭屢屢被美國二十年前研製的海馬斯火箭和三十年前研製的陸軍戰術導彈摧毀。相比之下，俄軍曾經一連發射十幾枚最新研製的超高音速導彈，飽和攻擊烏克蘭的四十年前投產的愛國者防空導彈導彈，全部被愛國者擊落。

這說明俄軍的防空能力在美軍面前幾乎是廢鐵一堆。

不錯，剛剛有美軍F35發生戰損並在美軍機場緊急降落的報道。但這並不能說明美軍科技不夠先進。太平洋戰爭後期，美軍專門針對日軍零式飛機設計的地獄貓式戰機對零式構成碾壓式優勢，美軍飛行員經驗越來越豐富，日軍有經驗的飛行員損失殆盡，剛剛學會起飛就投入戰鬥。在1944年6月19日到20日的菲律賓海海戰中，美軍經驗豐富的飛行員駕駛著性能完全碾壓零式的地獄貓，輕鬆地擊落了300多架日機，一天就誕生了十個王牌飛行員。一個飛行員返航後說：“這哪裡是空戰，這完全是在射火雞！” 於是這次戰役被稱為“馬裡亞納射火雞”。但就是這樣的完全碾壓，美軍在此役中仍然被擊落近三十架戰機。相比之下，在這場對伊朗的全面戰爭中，美軍出動幾千架次，打擊了5000到7000個目標，只有一架戰機戰損，但仍然飛回機場降落，無一名飛行員戰死，這恰恰說明了美軍科技的碾壓性優勢。

世界上公認，中國軍事專家自己也承認，中國雷達技術比俄國落後十年。就是說，如果有一天美軍對中共軍發起大規模恐襲，共軍的防空係統會比俄製廢鐵更加廢鐵。如果共軍對台灣發起常規進攻或封鎖，就是靠戰機、戰艦、導彈，美軍和使用美軍最新武器的台軍一定會打得共軍滿地找牙。

實際上，在2021年10月發表的《預言台海之戰全過程》中，我不得不生硬地虛構出俄國把極其先進的S600導彈援助共軍，導致台灣喪失自衛能力，不得不向美國求助，因為沒有這個虛構，台軍自己就可以打得共軍滿地找牙，美軍就沒必要參戰，但在這個預言故事裡我想讓美軍參戰，以便告訴讀者美軍參戰後戰爭將如何演變。

2. 美軍反無人機的能力嚴重不足

之所以俄軍無法摧毀烏克蘭的愛國者，是因為烏克蘭早已經有了全套的對付伊朗見證者無人機的辦法，無人機無法威脅到愛國者，於是愛國者可以全力以赴對付俄國的高端的彈道和巡航導彈。

相比之下，美軍在中東部署的八套薩德高空反導系統已經被伊朗擊毀或損壞了四套，因為薩德是用來對付高空高速的彈道導彈的，無法對付低空低速的伊朗見證者無人機，而美軍對付這種無人機的能力遠遠不如烏克蘭。

而中國的科研能力、電子能力、人工智能水平比伊朗強百倍，無人機技術獨步天下，大疆壟斷世界商用無人機市場，而且中國的加工製造規模獨步天下。他們完全可以開發出比伊朗見證者無人機先進百倍的無人機，比如不靠遠程遙控，先靠預設GPS接近戰區，然後通過光電傳感器自行辨識目標。武統時，幾千台這樣的智能無人機飛過海峽，即使台灣的各種導彈百分之百命中，也不過擊落其中的一半。而中國可以每天發出幾千台。於是，台灣的防空導彈耗盡，各種對空對海雷達被毀，台灣的魚叉、雄風反艦導彈成了睜眼瞎。

同樣的無人機蜂群可以重創日本的進攻能力、美軍在日本的軍事基地、海上的航母戰鬥群。

四年前，烏戰開始，美軍就知道了無人機完全改寫了戰場規則，然而，直到今天，他們仍然無法阻止具有戰略意義的、三四億美元一套的、生產週期長達四五年的薩德被無人機成批摧毀。

而台灣的情況被美國要糟糕十倍。美軍畢竟在深度跟蹤烏戰，美軍武器在實戰中面對俄國無人機，美軍各級情報部門和烏軍緊密聯繫，而台灣則與實戰無緣。中共在台灣的第五總隊——國民党毫無遮掩的賣台，步步接受中共的指令，很大比例的台灣人分不清敵我，這就是為什麼國民党毫無遮掩地賣台卻仍然能當選。所以，台灣政治長期處於半癱瘓狀態，無法像美國、烏克蘭那樣靈活反應。所以，台灣在二三年內迅速找到對付中共無人機蜂群的技術並大規模部署的可能性是零。

此時此刻，中共一定正在史無前例地加大對自殺式無人機的投入。

這就是川普這次不顧出門證聯席會議主席、國家情報委員會的反對輕啟戰端的後果之一：將美軍、台軍最大的軟肋——缺乏反無人機能力昭示天下，而中國恰恰是世界上的無人機之王！

3. 世界戰爭史上的新現象：靠挨打就能贏得勝利

川普2025年1月就職時，美國國債是36.2萬億美元。

今天，美國國債已經突破了39萬億美元。

而伊朗對周圍國家的攻擊正在升級，還剛剛第一次發射了射程4000公里的洲際導彈，川普焦頭爛額，無計可施。

所以，在伊朗步步升級反擊烈度，霍爾姆斯海峽完全被切斷的時候，川普卻開始談論撤軍了。

而中國國土面積是伊朗的六倍，軍隊人數是伊朗的四倍，軍事實力是伊朗的20到30倍（Gemini的統計）。

就算美軍能以零傷亡為代價摧毀共軍所有的裝備，到美軍完全掌握了台灣海峽和中國沿海省份的製空權，而且完全壓制了共軍的導彈和無人機能力時，美國的國債肯定已經突破了50甚至60萬億。

何況美軍的損失會比伊戰時大得多。

不用等到國債突破50萬億，美國就破產了。

不用等到美國破產，美國老百姓就已經把決定在台海介入中共武統的政府趕下台了。

在中國發起武統時，美國情報部門早已掌握了中共的戰爭決心和準備。如果中共僅僅是想試一下，台灣和美國嚇壞了，武統輕易成功，就佔了個大便宜；如果對方玩命，那就退縮，那麼美國反而要擺出堅決武裝干預的架勢，期望通過一場快速的壓倒性勝利來挫敗中共的意圖。

然而，如果美國發現中共是像現在的伊朗一樣，抱定了不論家底損失多大，持續多久，死多少人，都一定要收回台灣的決心，那麼美國就已經知道，自己完完全全無法負擔這場戰爭，所以美國肯定從開始就不會介入。

過去的美國總統們不輕啟戰端，就是因為他們不用等到這些後果發生了才發覺。他們有能力看到五步之後的棋盤，而紅脖子盲流不會算棋，他們被恐懼、虛榮驅使著，走一步看一步。

這就是川普輕啟戰端的後果之二：將美國無法負擔一場中等規模戰爭的軟肋昭示天下。

因為看清了美國的這個軟肋，中共作出不計一切代價魚死網破也要收回台灣的決定的幾率大幅度增加，因為他們現在堅信這樣能贏得最後勝利。

台灣所有政評人，除明居正教授外，都是川粉。我相信，等台灣街頭到處是五星紅旗和共軍坦克時，這些人還會在比大陸管控得還嚴格的台灣網絡上信誓旦旦：

“川爺聽任共軍佔領台灣是在下一盤滅共的大棋，台灣人只需要耐心吃苦，耐心等待。”

4. 美國有一大半人是愚蠢的

因為海灣國家和美軍無法應付伊朗的自殺無人機，美軍向烏軍求援，但這損害了弗拉基米爾•川普同志的太陽系裝不下的虛榮心，於是他說：

“這個世界上美國最不需要的就是烏克蘭的幫助。”

本來，英國準備調航母編隊去中東，弗拉基米爾說：

“美國已經完勝了，這時你們英國來湊熱鬧？美國不需要。”

二天後，他又求英國派這隻航母編隊來幫忙。你猜猜英國說什麼？

北京人給弗拉基米爾這種人有一個專用詞，而且這個詞是最適合的，這個詞就是“傻逼”。

而這個傻逼不是上帝硬派下來的，他是一大半美國人選上來的，到現在那些人都還堅定地支持他。

美國人之蠢，只有伊朗人可比。

總結

如果中共看到到了本文這四點，如果習近平或他的繼任者有破釜沉舟的勇氣，而不是駑馬戀棧豆，那麼台灣的淪陷幾乎已成定局。

除非中共因為內因內爆。我會在下一篇文章中討論這個問題。

伊朗导弹击中卡塔尔全球最大天然气基地和沙特最大的煉油設施，需要五到十年才能恢復，損失以百億計。中東國家用了二十年努力打造的避險避稅天堂的形象瞬間失去，富人天堂迪拜形如鬼城。美國股市損失3萬億美元，歐洲、澳洲油價飛漲，帶動各種費用飛漲，澳洲央行不得不加息，經濟從過熱面臨衰退。

就是說，美國自己和它的盟友全部深受其害。

那麼，這個世界上，誰佔便宜了？

還記得僅僅二年前嗎？恍如隔世呀！那時美國針對中共的聯盟如鐵桶般嚴密，中共在國際上如過街老鼠，拜登多次明確表示美國會軍事干預武統。那時，中共不知道美國的稀土軟肋和其他的軟肋。那時，武統是再也做不了多久的黃粱夢。

而現在，台灣已經是中共的囊中之物。

隨著油價翻翻，俄國的戰爭經費陡增，每個月財政收入多出50億美元！

MEGA——Make Enemy Great Again.

On January 14, 2026, the day after the theocratic regime massacred protesters on a large scale, in my piece 言哈梅內伊的歸宿：GBU-57, I predicted that Khamenei would be killed by a bomb.

On March 2, in My Prophecy Fulfilled: The Fall Of Khamenei & The Future of the Iranian Regime, I was the first person in the world to point out that a moderation of the current Iranian regime is America’s most desired outcome. A few days later, similar reports about American intentions began to appear.

I also pointed out that the prospect of Iran refusing to yield would be a nightmare for America and the world. Iran’s selection of Khamenei’s son as the new leader signals Iran’s determination to fight to the end. Iran has also begun mining the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have surged sharply, diesel in Australia is close to running out, and industries dependent on it — such as livestock — face ruin.

Trump may have led America and the world into a pit so large and deep that the Afghan quagmire will look trivial by comparison.

Imagine the following scenario.

You and your wife are shopping at a mall when a woman accidentally steps on your wife’s foot. The woman smiles apologetically and rushes to say sorry, but your wife loses control, erupts in a torrent of abuse, grabs the woman by the hair and starts punching her. At that moment, you’d be horrified and pull your wife back:

“Are you crazy? What are you doing?!"

You’ve separated them and are apologising to the woman, when her husband charges out of a nearby shop and punches your wife to the ground, straddles her and beats her bloody. Would you stand by and say to your wife: “Serves you right for acting crazy"?

Of course not. In that moment, your frustration at your wife’s behaviour vanishes — because it was only a surface-level emotion — and what awakens is the deep love of years of marriage. You’d throw yourself at that man like a madman.

One of the handful of genuinely perceptive Chinese political commentators, Lao Zhou Hengmei, recently made a programme in which he used the fact that 95% or even 99% of Chinese people support the CCP to infer that the vast majority of Iranians support the theocratic regime. I think that since the Iranian government has managed the economy far worse than the CCP and treated its people far more brutally, the proportion of Iranians who support the regime should be smaller than the proportion of Chinese who support the CCP — but saying it’s around half seems reasonable.

Among the opposition, many people are angry simply because of runaway inflation, but don’t necessarily oppose the Islamic fundamentalist system at a fundamental level. Once America reduces their homeland to rubble — especially as civilian casualties mount rapidly (Iran will follow Hamas’s playbook and hide weapons in residential areas), and friends and family are killed — the anti-government sentiment of these people may quickly be replaced by national pride and solidarity, rallying them around the government. The tiny minority who truly despise the regime and would rather see their country razed to the ground than live under theocratic rule will no longer dare to speak up.

There are many historical examples of foreign invasion causing anti-government citizens to swing behind their government:

• In the early 19th century, Russia’s serf system left the peasantry in misery, full of grievances against Tsar Alexander I, with uprisings occurring regularly. When Napoleon invaded Russia, the serfs who had previously hated the government did not see the French as liberators — instead they spontaneously formed guerrilla units and cooperated with government forces in a scorched-earth campaign.
• In 1982, Argentina was under the military junta of General Galtieri — the economy had collapsed, inflation was extreme, and the people were tired of dictatorship, with protests constant. To deflect domestic tensions, the junta decided to seize the British Falkland Islands. When Britain dispatched a task force to fight back, the very crowds that had been protesting the government flooded the squares, chanting in support of the nation.
• In 1980, the Iranian Islamic Revolution had just concluded, the country was in extreme turmoil, and many people opposed the newly established theocracy. Saddam saw this as an opportunity to attack — but Iraq’s invasion actually consolidated Khomeini’s regime, with many secular Iranians and military officers who had been lukewarm about theocratic rule rallying behind the government.

In my previous article I said Iran’s theocratic regime is as stubbornly foolish as aliens. Once the majority of Iranians unite in solidarity behind their government, even if America bombs Iran into rubble, they will only fight more resolutely.

Because I don’t know the current mindset of the Iranian people, I can’t be certain whether they will rally behind the government or whether the government will fight to the end. But judging by Iran’s choice to elect the son of the slain leader and its mining of the Strait of Hormuz, it is at least a non-trivial possibility — wouldn’t you agree?

Comrade Vladimir Trump has already become Putin’s greatest saviour. He is also the CCP’s greatest saviour. And now, he may become the greatest saviour of Iran’s theocratic regime.

This is why I don’t call Comrade Trump’s camp MAGA — I call them MEGA: Make Enemies Great Again.

Israel shares a land border with Gaza. Tanks can penetrate the heart of Gaza within hours, and drones have hovered over it year-round. Even so, the Israeli military not only bombed Gaza repeatedly for months, but also swept through it with ground forces like a comb, time and again, before finally largely subduing Hamas.

Iran’s territory is 4,500 times the size of Gaza, and its population is 41 times larger. Iranians don’t need to be as alien-like in their stubbornness as the regime’s leadership — they only need to be as stubborn as Hamas, and America would have to mobilise for total war, launching a ground invasion with hundreds of thousands or even millions of troops to fully subdue the Iranian people. The national debt would increase by $10 trillion within a year. America currently pays more in debt interest than it spends on defence; at that point, interest payments would be 1.5 times what they are now, defence spending 1.5 times what it is now, and fiscal bankruptcy would be nearly inevitable. Once America is bogged down in an Iranian quagmire — with its arsenal depleted and its treasury empty — the CCP launching a military unification campaign and occupying Taiwan becomes a certainty.

The U.S. military has now found itself in a difficult dilemma:

• If they limit their airstrikes to Iranian military facilities, they will be fundamentally unable to eliminate the missiles and drones being launched at the Gulf States, as these are hidden deep within underground “Great Walls." Iran can rapidly produce short-range missiles—and drones in particular—allowing them to sustain attacks on the Gulf States and the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely. In the end, it is the United States that will be forced to surrender, as the U.S. and its allies cannot withstand skyrocketing oil prices.

• To truly “hurt" Iran, the U.S. would have to target its infrastructure—such as oil fields, pipelines, ports, and power plants—but doing so would only accelerate the process of unifying the Iranian people around their government.

Either way, the United States loses.

Why didn’t previous American presidents strike Iran? Because they were all civilised people who wore shoes. They didn’t act unilaterally — they relied on think tanks and experts, who would invariably tell the President that all-out war could strengthen the theocratic regime, that the war could drag on indefinitely, that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed, causing catastrophic damage to the global economy.

But in today’s America, only one person makes decisions — Comrade Trump. Before the war began, General Cain, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff whom he himself appointed, told him that the United States had no viable military option against Iran. The National Intelligence Council conducted a special study and then told him that it would be very difficult to achieve regime change. But he didn’t listen to any of it, because he doesn’t think rationally – his vanity and desire for revenge drive his actions..

Since Comrade Vladimir Trump took office:

• He has been played by Putin like a toy in the palm of his hand, while Russia steadily tightens its grip in Ukraine;
• He is now planning to lift sanctions on Russian oil and gas, using energy scarcity as a pretext;
• Because China has a stranglehold on America’s rare earth supply chain, he has made concession after concession to the CCP, permitting the sale of critical AI chips to China;
• America’s former European allies are rushing to visit Beijing — the CCP has become the darling of Canada and Europe alike.
• Now he may be pushing lots of Iranians toward the regime.

MEGA — Make Enemies Great Again. Perfectly apt, isn’t it?