President Putin has begun his deathbed struggle. He issued a desperate order to his sleeper agent, Vladimir Trump, his ace operative registered with Russia’s Federal Security Service (FSB):
“Isn’t it about time you got your hands dirty? I’m fucking dying here, and you’re still pretending? What fucking use will you be once I’m finished?"
You think I must be joking, right?
No! A sitting British MP Graham Stuard said so!
And so Vladimir Trump could no longer sit still. He rolled up his sleeves.
Russian satellite imagery and missile technology directly enabled Iranian missiles to destroy most American military bases in the Middle East, wiping out tens of billions of dollars’ worth of military equipment that will be difficult to replace, and killing 21 American servicemen. The Houthi militants, backed by Russia and Iran, have just attacked Riyadh Airport in Saudi Arabia, America’s most important ally, causing more than 300 casualties.
Russia is an enemy of the United States, recognised as such across the American political establishment and defined as such by law.
Yet Trump is preparing to hand President Putin the US dollars he desperately needs: $5 billion.
Putin will certainly not spend this money on the welfare of his people. He will use it to kill more Ukrainian women and children, more of America’s allies, and more Americans.
What Putin dreads most, which is the only way to end the war, is Ukraine’s bombing of Russian refineries. So that is what Trump is now pressuring Ukraine to stop.
With the midterm elections looking increasingly precarious, with his boss Putin at his back, Comrade Trump has taken both his mask and gloves off. He no longer worries if his identity as the ace FSB undercover is uncovered, he no longer cares how the civilized world is disgusted by him. He goes all in.
The Joke
Trump announced to the world on his Truth Social platform that Russia and Ukraine had reached an agreement to stop attacking each other’s energy facilities.
One hour later, Russia destroyed a Ukrainian power plant.
Then, when President Zelenskyy was asked about the announcement by reporters, he replied:
“I’ve only just heard about this news. Clearly, Putin doesn’t read Truth Social."
Neither Putin nor Zelenskyy takes Trump seriously.
Why Zelenskyy Can Ignore Trump
A person of character and refinement has friends everywhere. Even people who seem to be of no immediate use to him are his friends.
Partly, this is because he understands that someone who seems unimportant today may be of tremendous help tomorrow. Partly, it is because he is a kind person and people naturally want to befriend him.
But someone like Trump has an enormous ego.
His ego is like a ravenous wolf that can never be satisfied. His sole purpose, day after day, is to keep feeding that wolf. And the food it demands is evidence of his own greatness.
He refuses to acknowledge a legitimate election because his ego cannot possibly accept being defeated. Defeat would be devastating to it.
He launched the war against Iran because the military miracle of capturing Maduro alive could satisfy that wolf only briefly. Almost immediately, it demanded more food.
Such a person is inevitably arrogant, inevitably shortsighted, and easy to offend.
Consequently, he will offend anyone he does not desperately need at that particular moment.
To the person he desperately needs, however, he will promise everything, because he has no intention of honouring any of those promises.
As Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney put it:
“Trump signs all his agreements in pencil."
On Monday, he offends everyone except John, whom he desperately needs. To John, he promises everything.
On Tuesday, Peter becomes the person he needs most. So he tells Peter: “Forget John! He’s nobody! You’re my real friend! I will give you anything you want!"
On Wednesday, he needs Simon to plug his biggest hole. So he tells Simon: “Don’t listen to that idiot Peter! I’ll always be loyal to you!"
On Thursday, he needs John’s help again. He goes back to John.
Guess what John says?
That is Trump.
Why Won’t Zelensky Listen to Him?
First, he has already cut off all material aid to Ukraine. The only thing the US still provides that is useful to Ukraine is intelligence. But even in intelligence, Ukraine’s European allies provide two-thirds of what Ukraine needs. As for the remaining one-third, Ukraine’s own intelligence operations against Russia have been outstanding and have also played a major role. Even if the US cuts off all intelligence sharing, it will not have a decisive impact on the course of the war in Ukraine.
Second, opposition to Russia and support for Ukraine remain quite strong in both American political parties. Trump has already faced considerable condemnation for buying Russian diesel. If Trump orders a complete cutoff of intelligence, the condemnation he faces can only become even greater.
Third, as a member of the Five Eyes intelligence alliance, the US also relies heavily on intelligence from the other four countries. If the US cuts off intelligence sharing with Ukraine, the other four countries may also cut off intelligence sharing with the US.
Fourth, the battlefield in Ukraine has completely overturned the concepts of modern warfare, revealing that the vast majority of the US military’s ground warfare methods are already obsolete. The US military urgently needs to use this battlefield to learn and make corrections. If the US cuts off intelligence share, Ukraine will cut off the US army’s access to this fascinating future war lab.
Therefore, the likelihood of Trump actually cutting off all assistance is very small.
That is why Zelenskyy not only ignores Trump’s demands, but openly mocks him.
For readers who do not know me: Three months before the outbreak of the Ukraine war, all Chinese-language political commentators unanimously believed that Putin had no intention of invading and was merely playing a highly sophisticated game of chess. I predicted that Putin would definitely invade. Three days before the invasion, I predicted that war was imminent. Since then, I have predicted all the subsequent developments of the war in advance. See here.
Two years ago, in 縱覽烏戰、中東、臺海, I predicted that regardless of how incompetent the Ukrainian military might be, because the Russian military could not stop Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian oil-refining facilities, and because Russia’s oil and gas exports were its only source of income for sustaining its war effort, “the outcome of the Ukraine war has already been decided. There is no longer any suspense whatsoever."
Now this prediction is coming true perfectly.
At this very moment, Ukraine’s Third Army Corps, under the command of Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky, is conducting a counteroffensive in the Lyman area of northern Donetsk Oblast, codenamed Operation Vivaldi. The operation was prepared over the course of a year and began in May 2026, completely frustrating Russia’s attempt to encircle Ukraine’s fortress belt through a pincer offensive. For the first time in the history of human warfare, Ukrainian forces have combined infantry assaults, electronic warfare, aerial drones, and unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) in combat. So far, they have recaptured 176 square kilometres of territory, inflicted more than 5,000 Russian casualties, and captured more than 250 Russian soldiers. The fourth phase is being planned.
Ukrainian forces used heavy Griffon drones to transport ground robots loaded with explosives more than 10 kilometres behind Russian positions, launching attacks from unexpected directions. This was the world’s first use of such tactics
Unmanned ground vehicles have carried out more than 200 strikes and 94 assault or sabotage missions, attacking Russian bunkers, command posts, and drone operators, greatly reducing the risk of Ukrainian infantry being exposed to enemy fire.
Ukrainian forces used ground robots to complete mine-clearing operations along a 30-kilometre route in just two nights. Using traditional methods, this would have required an estimated two combat engineer companies working for a week. Not a single Ukrainian combat engineer was injured.
Ukrainian forces destroyed multiple Russian drone launch positions, ammunition depots, and command facilities, forcing Russia to withdraw its elite Rubicon drone unit from the Lyman–Borova sector.
Ukrainian forces regained control of several settlements, including Nove, Shandryholove, and Katerynivka, and reportedly forced Russia to divert reinforcements from other fronts, disrupting its planned offensives.
In the age of firearms, the attacking side always suffers greater casualties than the defending side, because defenders are sheltered in trenches and bunkers, while attackers must cross open ground that has already been calibrated by the defenders’ artillery. Ukraine’s national strength, military strength, air force, and air-defence capabilities are all far inferior to Russia’s, yet Ukrainian casualties in the Vivaldi offensive have been far lower than Russian casualties.
It is no exaggeration to say that Operation Vivaldi is a miracle in the history of human warfare.
The collapse of Russian frontline combat capability caused by the paralysis of its rear-area economy and logistics, which I predicted in several previous articles in my In-Depth Analysis of the Ukraine War series, is now becoming reality. It is simply happening faster than I expected.
Ukraine is going from strength to strength.
In 1917, the devastating military losses of the First World War, severe food shortages, economic collapse, and widespread public dissatisfaction with the autocratic rule of Tsar Nicholas II ultimately triggered a revolution. Massive demonstrations and strikes broke out in the capital, Petrograd. When the army began to defect and join the protesters, refusing to obey orders to suppress them, the Tsarist regime lost its last pillar of support. On 15 March 1917, Nicholas II was forced to abdicate, ending more than three centuries of Romanov rule.
Now, even those Russian bloggers who have staunchly supported the war are warning that Russia is rapidly heading towards the same fate.
Russia now has no technological means whatsoever to bring itself back from the dead. Against the jet-powered Shahed drones on which Russia had once placed great hopes, Ukraine’s fast interceptor drones and AI-controlled machine guns have already entered production and proven effective. Russia’s economy is heading towards collapse, while the European Union’s support for Ukraine in economic and military technology is becoming increasingly determined as Ukraine goes from strength to strength.
As a death throes, Putin has just ordered the removal of all restrictions on Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian civilian facilities. Russian drones have just struck a bridge in Kyiv, causing minor damage, and have also attacked Ukrainian civilian data centres.
This demonstrates Putin’s desperate state of mind with extraordinary clarity.
Why?
He has sent 1.5 million young Russians into the Ukrainian meat grinder, at least 700,000 of whom have been killed. Two battalions of Russian troops are killed every day. None of this has any effect on his conscience. If slaughtering every Ukrainian civilian—including women and children—could save him from his own downfall, he would do it without blinking an eye.
But throughout nearly five years of war, he has never lifted this restriction. Why?
Because he knows that doing so could not destroy Ukraine’s ability or will to fight. It would only strengthen the Ukrainian people’s determination to fight and Europe’s determination to support Ukraine.
Therefore, Putin’s action at this moment demonstrates, beyond any doubt, his desperate state of mind.
Zelensky said, “Such civilian facilities (bridges and data centres) do not exist only in Ukraine." The implied threat is self-evident. Ukrainians have long been demanding that their military retaliate in kind by striking Russian civilian facilities.
But I do not believe the Ukrainian military will do so. It will continue striking Russian oil-refining facilities, oil-storage facilities, and logistics systems.
Why?
Because it is precisely these strikes that have driven Putin into a corner and forced him to take such a mad action. This proves that these strikes are hitting Russia where it hurts most. Therefore, Ukraine should continue and intensify these strikes, rather than divert its limited long-range drones and even more limited missiles to attack Russian civilian targets. Doing so would not only reduce the damage inflicted on Russia’s war-making capability, but would also strengthen the Russian people’s determination to continue fighting.
Nazi Germany made exactly this mistake during the Battle of Britain. In the first phase of the German air offensive, the Luftwaffe targeted the Royal Air Force, bringing it close to the brink of collapse. But because Germany did not realise how effective its attacks had been and believed they were achieving little, it shifted its targets to central London. As a result, the Royal Air Force gained precious breathing space and ultimately won the Battle of Britain, while the Luftwaffe completely ceased its air raids against Britain.
Friends, the dawn of the collapse of Putin’s regime and Russia’s defeat in the war has already appeared on the horizon.
First of all, yes I do imply with the above title that the United States is not a civilized country. You can give me a billion evidences to rebuke me, but I insist that, if a government agency posts such a message to its Indian citizens:
“Hey Mr. Singh! Get off our road! America doesn’t want you!"
Then this country by no means can be regarded as a civilized country.
Period.
Is Trump’s America an ally of Europe or Russia?
Since 1945, America’s democratic allies have operated on an assumption so fundamental that it was rarely questioned: whatever disagreements might arise with Washington, the United States would remain the ultimate strategic backstop of the democratic world.
Since the beginning of Trump’s second term, that assumption has gone.
America’s erstwhile allies are facing the gravest security challenge since the Cold War. With Russia intensifying its war against Ukraine, NATO is all but certain that Russia will soon launch some form of shooting attack on it. In the Indo-Pacific, China is building jet fighter runways on one of the illegally occupied islands in the biggest expansion in the last ten years. Yet at precisely this moment, Trump started a war that no adults in the room wanted and got the United States bogged down in the quagmire.
Facing a shooting war with Russia, Germany urgently needs weapons such as Patriot missiles, which it had ordered from the US, and was told that, due to the war with Iran consuming most of America’s stockpiles, delivery will be delayed by five years.
At the same time, Trump is drastically reducing American troops in Europe.
I know it may sound radical to many, but if you were a new visitor to Earth, judging from what Trump is doing, wouldn’t it be natural for you to assume that Trump and Putin are allies?
The root cause
Trump once famously boasted during his 2016 campaign that his supporters were so loyal that he could stand on Fifth Avenue, shoot somebody and not lose voters.
These voters are the problem, not Trump, and, because of them, this radical swing is not a one-off aberration, but the beginning of America’s permanent moral and cognitive decline.
These angry mobs have always been there, but their numbers have greatly multiplied in the last decade, partly due to the economic pain brought by the transition from manufacturing to a digital economy, but mainly due to the decline of the Christian faith—more and more people are starting to feel that no one cares about their difficulties, and they desire a Jason Statham-style quick fix:
Their chosen demagogue throws to them some scapegoats, then they beat the hell out of them, then everything will be fine.
America’s erstwhile ally—democratic Europe—was one of the scapegoats.
Another shift also contributed to this swing. In the past, the elites controlled society’s narrative via newspapers and television. Now, using social media, these angry mobs have wrested control of narratives from the elites into their own hands.
Therefore, the adults in the room—America’s erstwhile allies like democratic Europe, the UK, Australia and Japan—understand that the good old days when this giant acted with strategic maturity, sophistication and constancy are gone.
Although they don’t spell it out—there is zero need for the petulant kid who is the president of the world’s most powerful country to hear their plan—the adults have started a major movement of de-Americanization.
The civilized world is de-Americanizing
Silently, something very substantial is happening.
1. Europe is constructing its own air and missile shield
Europe already possesses excellent air-defence technology. France and Italy have SAMP/T NG and MBDA’s ASTER missiles; Germany produces IRIS-T. The problem has been scale and integration — and above all, dependence on American Patriot systems.
That is now changing. France and Italy are deploying SAMP/T NG, while Denmark selected the system in 2025. In February 2025, France, Italy and Britain ordered nearly 1,000 additional ASTER missiles, with MBDA committing €2.4 billion to expand production between 2025 and 2029. The European Sky Shield Initiative is also bringing countries together to procure systems such as Germany’s IRIS-T SLM.
The objective is simple:
If America has Patriots available, excellent.
If America does not, Europe must still be able to shoot the missile down.
2. Europe is building sovereign space capabilities
Modern warfare does not begin with the tank. It begins hundreds of kilometres above it.
Satellites provide communications, surveillance, navigation, missile warning and battlefield intelligence. An autonomous European military that cannot independently see the battlefield or communicate securely is not genuinely autonomous.
That dependency is now being reduced. In October 2024, the European Commission awarded the IRIS² satellite communications programme to the SpaceRISE consortium, involving SES, Eutelsat, Airbus, Thales Alenia Space and OHB. The system is planned to provide secure European satellite communications from 2030.
In February 2026, the EU’s GOVSATCOM system became operational, pooling secure satellite communications for European governments.
Europe is therefore building the eyes, ears and communications infrastructure needed to defend itself without assuming America will always provide them.
3. Europe is developing independent long-range strike capabilities
Europe needs the ability to destroy missile launchers, ammunition depots, command centres, air bases and logistics infrastructure far behind the battlefield.
In 2024, France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Sweden and Britain launched the European Long-Range Strike Approach (ELSA). The programme covers weapons ranging from 300–500 km to systems exceeding 2,000 km, including long-range missiles and low-cost one-way attack drones.
In February 2026, the six countries signed a further agreement to accelerate their development and procurement.
For decades, Europe could largely rely on America for this capability.
It is now beginning to build it for itself.
4. European nuclear deterrence is quietly becoming more European
This may ultimately be the most profound change of all.
Europe already possesses two nuclear powers: Britain and France. Their arsenals are far smaller than America’s, but Russia does not need to believe that Europe can destroy Russia ten times over. Deterrence requires Russia to believe that attacking Europe would impose an unacceptable cost.
In July 2025, Britain and France signed “Lancaster House 2.0″, deepening cooperation between their independent nuclear forces and establishing a permanent UK-France Nuclear Steering Group.
France and Germany are also discussing the role of French nuclear deterrence in European security.
This does not mean that the American nuclear umbrella has disappeared.
But Europe is now seriously asking a question that would have been almost unthinkable only a few years ago:
What happens if one day the American nuclear umbrella simply isn’t there?
The fact that Europe is seriously asking that question is itself de-Americanisation.
5. Europe is preparing for the next war without America
Ukraine has transformed European military thinking. Cheap drones can destroy equipment costing millions of dollars; electronic warfare can cripple sophisticated weapons; and modern war consumes ammunition on a scale that peacetime armies never imagined.
Europe is responding with money on a scale that would have been unthinkable before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The EU’s 2025 ReArm Europe/Readiness 2030 plan aims to mobilise up to €800 billion in additional defence spending, including €150 billion in EU-backed SAFE loans. At least 65% of eligible procurement costs must come from the EU, Ukraine or other eligible European countries.
The EU is also putting €6 billion into its Drone Alliance with Ukraine, while European ammunition production has increased by 40%.
This is more than rearmament.
Europe is rebuilding the industrial capacity to manufacture the weapons, ammunition, drones and interceptors required for a prolonged war.
Poland and the Baltic states, sitting directly on Europe’s eastern flank, understand this particularly clearly. The geographical centre of gravity of European defence is moving eastward.
The petulant kid may intend to use the withdrawal of American troops as revenge against the adults’ despise on him. But it only serves to increase European votes’ support for the military build up, which makes America less and less relevant in this birthplace of western civilization.
6. Canada is also de-Americanizing
Canada is taking the same approach economically.
On 1 October 2026, Prime Minister Mark Carney and Alberta Premier Danielle Smith announced the Pacific Link pipeline — a proposed approximately 1,200-km pipeline carrying about one million barrels of oil per day from Alberta to Canada’s Pacific coast, opening a direct route to Asian markets instead of sending virtually all Canadian oil south to the United States.
Canada is also expanding trade through the CPTPP and CETA. Since the CPTPP came into force, Canadian merchandise trade with its original seven Indo-Pacific partners has increased 42.9%. Since CETA, Canada-EU merchandise trade has increased 59.8%.
At home, Canada’s Critical Minerals Strategy targets lithium, graphite, nickel, cobalt, copper and rare earths. Its 2026 economic plan allocates C$5 billion to critical minerals and C$5.7 billion to trade diversification and infrastructure.
And Canada is strengthening its Arctic sovereignty: Ottawa announced C$32 billion in March 2026 for infrastructure upgrades at four northern military locations.
7. Europe is building its own payment system
Europe has long depended heavily on American payment networks such as Visa and Mastercard. That is now being challenged directly.
In September 2026, payment systems from Spain’s Bizum, Italy’s Bancomat, Belgium-based Wero, Portugal’s MB WAY and Norway’s Vipps MobilePay joined together to form the European Network for Payments (ENP). The network will connect payment systems covering about 130 million users across 13 countries, initially for person-to-person payments and later for online and physical retail.
The EU is simultaneously developing the digital euro, with the European Central Bank explicitly saying that it will strengthen Europe’s autonomy in payment infrastructure, where Europe currently relies on international providers.
Europe is therefore beginning to build an alternative to one of the most deeply embedded pieces of American economic infrastructure.
8. Europe is trying to free itself from American cloud and technology infrastructure
This one is particularly powerful because it is very close to the heart of modern economic power.
In April 2026, the European Commission awarded €180 million in contracts for sovereign cloud services to four European-led providers: OVHcloud/Clever Cloud, STACKIT, Scaleway and Proximus/S3NS. The contracts cover EU institutions for up to six years and were designed specifically to reduce dependence on non-European technology providers.
And this is not merely a procurement decision. In June 2026, the Commission announced a broader Tech Sovereignty package, including the Cloud and AI Development Act and Chips Act 2.0. The Commission says the EU currently relies on non-EU countries for more than 80% of key digital products, services, infrastructure and intellectual property. Digital Strategy
The message is remarkably clear:
Europe does not want its governments, data and critical infrastructure to depend on technology companies it cannot ultimately control.
9. Australia is diversifying away from dependence on the American market
Australia has been expanding FTAs with India, the UK and the EU, strengthening economic ties with Southeast Asia and participating in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework.
In June 2026, Australia’s Trade 2040 Taskforce formally identified trade diversification and economic security as one of its seven strategic pillars. The government is also putting $13 million into deeper engagement with Southeast Asia, including the Southeast Asia Economic Strategy to 2040. DFAT
Australia is not cutting America out. It is cutting its dependency.
10. Japan is building a defence industry with Britain and Italy
Japan, Britain and Italy are developing the GCAP next-generation fighter through a joint organisation, the Global Combat Air Programme International Government Organisation (GIGO).
The significance goes beyond one aircraft.
Japan is developing an advanced combat-aircraft capability jointly with two European powers, creating a defence-industrial relationship that does not run through the United States.
And this is exactly the sort of thing that would have been politically difficult to imagine when Japan’s defence relationship with America was treated as almost absolute.
The consequence
I had a rough childhood. I rubbed shoulders with all kinds of street kids, participated in a lot of street fights, and witnessed even more. A gang of three, with a strong and ferocious leading boy, almost always routed a gang of eight or ten that lacked such a leader. All that ferocious kid needed to do was to beat down one of the opponents with cruelty, and the rest of them would just disperse. Yes, if they acted as one, two smaller kids could easily defeat the stronger one, but the problem was that they couldn’t act as one.
The dynamics of alliances in wars are almost identical.
That is why Europe’s coming war with Russia is not a foregone conclusion—their combined wealth, industrial capacity and military capabilities are many times greater than Russia’s, but they are separate countries, while Russia is that big and ferocious boy. It is still possible that Russia beats down the first of them with horrific cruelty, and the rest become intimidated and lose the courage to fight.
That is why, no matter how much European countries invested in their own militaries, they would always rely heavily on America if possible. America is their own strong boy. They can always rally around this big boy and not be intimidated by the big boy on the opposing side. America may not even do much of the fighting; the psychological assurance is priceless in a world war.
So, if any other normal person like George W. Bush were the president, he would have forced the Europeans to increase their own military spending without showing them the middle finger and backstabbing them—like starting a useless war without consulting them, exhausting America’s expensive ordnance and delaying its delivery to Europe for five years; like inviting Russia to the G20; like pulling out US troops right before an imminent Russian attack on NATO.
He could simply have worked with the Europeans to come up with a schedule to reduce America’s military strength and spending in Europe while the Europeans built up their own strength to fill the void in a well-organized manner, all the time assuring them that America would always be their staunchest ally and, if the dire need arose, would come and defend them.
This would have achieved the same goal of reducing America’s burden of defending Europe, at the meantime words spoken by America would have carried the same weight and influence in Europe.
What Trump’s America actually did was consistently backstab and insult Europe, clearly demonstrating that America sees Europe as some kind of an annoyance or even foe and would much prefer Russia as its partner in the new world. It achieved the same goal of forcing Europe to defend itself, but America lost its leadership and influence in Europe and the world.
People say that America’s soft power, which its wise leaders of past generations carefully built, is more powerful than its military. Trump’s America destroyed a large part of it in two years.
Recently, Trump asked Ukraine to stop attacking Russian oil refineries. Ukraine said OK, then intensified the attacks. This is just one more example of America’s dwindling influence in Europe.
The endgame
With its global influence, moral and cognitive capacity dwindling, America’s decline will continue. I had a long and deep article, America’s Decline — and Why I Still Have Hope, dedicated on this topic.
Unless the midterm elections deliver an overwhelmingly crushing defeat to the puppet of the big bully—what used to be known as the Grand Old Party. If that happens, it will show the world that the American race has woken up from a psychotic seizure and swears that it won’t happen again.
If that doesn’t happen, America will continue its moral and cognitive decline. The technology and economic sectors may remain resilient for a while, but there has never been a country in history that has undergone such a decline while keeping its innovation and economy vibrant. The virus will spread.
Europe has shown the world its depth and sophistication, deeply rooted in Greek philosophies, Roman civilization and the splendid elegance since the Renaissance, by holding on to its graceful values while facing huge challenges such as an influx of Muslim migrants. Upstarts with their extreme wealth may appear as nobles for a short while, but when they face such inconveniences, the crimson-embroidered celestial pallium falls off, revealing their upstart nature.
Europe will be the future beacon of Western values.
The interviewee, Cormac Smith, is a British strategic-communications expert and former diplomat. From 2016 to 2018, he served as special communications adviser to former Ukrainian foreign minister Pavlo Klimkin—the first foreign national to hold that position—and also advised Ukraine’s Ministry of Health, Ministry of Education, National Security and Defence Council, and mission to NATO. Following the 2018 Salisbury poisoning, he joined the UK Cabinet Office’s National Security Communications Team, advising on countering hybrid warfare and disinformation. He is now a frequent commentator and analyst on international conflicts and the war in Ukraine for news channels, podcasts, and digital media outlets such as Frontline.
He provided a wealth of substantive information, but what most caught my attention was one of his predictions. There is a general consensus that Putin is about to carry out a large-scale military mobilisation and launch some form of provocation against NATO. If you want to know more, you must read this analysis of mine: Putin Is Highly Likely to Attack a NATO Country. Most people have predicted that Putin would wait until after today’s State Duma election, on 20 September. Smith, however, predicts that Putin will wait until after the US midterm elections in November.
The reason is that, if Putin were to attack NATO before then, the disastrous consequences of the policies pursued over the past two years by the FSB’s ace undercover, Comrade Vladimir Trump—policies favouring America’s enemies and alienating her allies, all carried out on President Putin’s orders—would become fully apparent, and the Republican Party would suffer a crushing defeat in the midterms.
Comrade Trump has certainly gone to extraordinary lengths. Over more than a decade of painstaking work, Ukraine constructed what is known as the Fortress Belt. This is a 50-kilometre defensive corridor running north to south along the H-20 highway in northern Donetsk Oblast. Centred on Sloviansk, Kramatorsk, Druzhkivka, and Kostiantynivka, it makes use of dense concentrations of heavily built concrete industrial facilities, ridgelines and high ground, and natural water barriers such as the Siverskyi Donets River. Together, these features have created an exceptionally lethal battlefield for wearing down Russian forces.
The Fortress Belt is not only the main defensive backbone protecting the remaining territory under Ukrainian control in the Donbas; it is also a vital railway and road logistics hub. Beyond it lies largely open, flat country. Once the Fortress Belt falls, major cities such as the capital, Kyiv, as well as Dnipro and Kharkiv, will be left dangerously exposed.
And so, after Comrade Trump received his orders from President Putin in Alaska, he began continuously pressuring Ukraine to surrender the Fortress Belt.
To clear-eyed observers such as Smith and me, Comrade Trump’s identity as Russia’s undercover agent is plainly obvious.
Many uninformed readers will undoubtedly say:
“Not all of Trump’s policies are pro-Russian. Some are neutral, and some are even anti-Russian.”
The problem is that the anti-Russian forces within the American political establishment and society are a hundred times stronger than the pro-Russian forces. If Comrade Trump were openly and unreservedly pro-Russian, would that not immediately expose his identity?
As an undercover agent who also happens to be president of the world’s most powerful country, his value to Russia exceeds that of the entire Russian military. No undercover agent, anywhere or at any time in history, would do so to risk immediate exposure.
However, the moment of truth is approaching. Once Putin provokes NATO, the United States will be forced to choose between withdrawing from the world stage and going to war with Russia—two catastrophic alternatives. The American people will finally understand the disastrous consequences that Comrade Trump’s two years of undercover work have brought upon both the United States and the world. The Republican Party would lose more than two-thirds of its seats in both chambers of Congress, enabling the Democrats to impeach and remove Trump on their own.
Smith therefore believes that Trump must already have sent a request through his handler to President Putin, asking him to postpone the attack until after the midterm elections.
I have no doubt that Comrade Trump would submit such a request. Putin will do everything in his power to protect him. But both the Russian military on the battlefield and the Russian economy at home are accelerating towards collapse. If the war turns against him, then, in Putin’s own words:
“They will hang me.”
Putin may therefore be unable to wait until after the midterm elections. To save his own life, he may have to risk his ace sleeper agent.
Recently, Comrade Vladimir Trump has once again dispatched his trusted lieutenants abroad, claiming that this time they have come up with a more acceptable peace proposal. I’ve been so busy lately that I haven’t even bothered to read it. All I’ll say is this: you can’t expect anything decent to come out of that lot. It’s going nowhere.
Russia still holds the initiative on the battlefield. In other words, for the most part it is Russia that decides what to do, where to do it, and when, while Ukraine is forced to react. It is only because of the inherent defensive advantage of entrenched positions, the ingenuity of the Ukrainian military, and NATO’s intelligence advantage that Ukraine has been able to stop the great majority of Russian attacks while suffering fewer casualties.
It is hard to describe an army that still holds the battlefield initiative as one that is losing the war.
Recently, Estonia’s intelligence chief said that Russia could suddenly experience a coup. Political commentators around the world immediately went into overdrive, and optimistic predictions of Putin’s imminent downfall began springing up like mushrooms after rain.
I see no sign, however, that Putin is about to fall.
The trend is certainly bad for him. But imagine a company worth several hundred million dollars that starts losing twenty million a year. That is undoubtedly cause for great concern. It does not mean the company is about to go bankrupt.
Back in 1945, the Soviet Red Army had already encircled Berlin, yet Hitler was still sitting in his bunker beneath the Reich Chancellery issuing orders for armies that effectively no longer existed to march on Berlin and save him. It was only when he could hear with his own ears the unmistakable rapid fire of Soviet PPSh “Papasha” submachine guns that he finally abandoned hope and killed himself.
Now consider that Russian forces still hold the initiative on the battlefield, and add to that the long-standing tendency of Putin’s subordinates to feed him false reports about the situation. Putin is nowhere remotely close to that state of despair. The probability that he would now agree to withdraw from every piece of Ukrainian territory Russia occupies—including Crimea—is not 1 percent. It is not 0.1 percent.
It is zero.
From Ukraine’s perspective, meanwhile, the trend is very encouraging. With the full financial and technological backing of the civilized world—and the word “civilized” naturally excludes the new bully—America—Ukraine is bringing into production, or is on the verge of bringing into production, long-range AI drones, cruise missiles, ballistic missiles, and missile-defense systems.
Russia has found no effective answer. Oil refineries, major depots, and other strategic facilities across the country have been destroyed on a massive scale. Petrol stations around Russia are seeing long queues, and the country has been forced to import petrol.
Agriculture is extraordinarily dependent on fuel, and Russian agriculture is heading toward catastrophe. The consequences have not yet become fully visible because crops have long production cycles and Russia currently has surplus grain stocks. Once these advanced weapons enter service on a large scale, Russia’s predicament will become even worse.
Eventually, Russia’s ability to sustain the war will fall below a critical threshold. At that point, the deterioration in the combat effectiveness of Russian forces at the front will cease to be merely quantitative and become qualitative.
That is when Ukraine’s great counteroffensive will begin.
The objective of Ukraine and the civilized nations standing behind it is therefore perfectly clear: the complete recovery of all occupied Ukrainian territory will by no means be Ukraine’s only demand. This war must make Russia bleed so much that, fifty years from now, Russian children will still have nightmares about it. Only then can there be any assurance that the Russian animals will not simply forget the pain once their wounds have healed, recover their strength, and attack again.
Given the enormous gulf between the two sides’ positions, and then looking at the diplomatic travels of the two clowns Comrade Trump has dispatched abroad, you have to wonder:
Has the FSB given Comrade Trump another direct order from headquarters, to alow down the relentless attacks from Ukraine and buy Russia some time?
Why are the civilized countries backing Ukraine—those that firmly support it—completely uninterested in a ceasefire at this point?
Because a ceasefire at this point would be a strategic disaster for Ukraine—one from which it might never recover.
Ukraine’s current advantage in drones has enabled it to strike Russia’s industrial capacity to the point where Russia is approaching what might be called a “threshold of irreparability.”
Before that threshold is reached, Ukraine can keep bombing and Russia can keep repairing. At any given moment, Russia’s industrial base remains strong enough to sustain both the basic functioning of the country and the war effort.
But once the depth and breadth of the attacks push Russia beyond that threshold, the country would enter a vicious cycle: fewer resources and capabilities mean a diminished ability to repair; diminished repair capacity means fewer facilities can remain operational; national strength declines; air-defence capability weakens; still more resources and productive capacity are destroyed; repair capacity falls further—and the cycle feeds on itself.
Russia has not yet crossed that threshold. But as Ukrainian drones become more advanced, acquire longer ranges, and are deployed in ever greater numbers, the economic disruption across Russian industries caused by oil shortages will become increasingly severe, pushing Russia ever closer to that threshold.
The way Ukraine is attacking Russia is fundamentally different from the way America is attacking Iran. America’s military technology is two generations ahead of Iran. America can pause the attack for as long as it wants, when it resumes, it still has the same advantage.
There is, however, nothing particularly high-tech about Ukraine’s drones, and even by simply copying them, Russia is unlikely to fall too far behind. Russian air-defence missiles have no difficulty shooting down Ukrainian drones. The problem is simply that Russia cannot manufacture air-defence missiles as quickly as Ukraine can manufacture drones. Meanwhile, Russia’s ballistic-missile strikes against Ukraine have so far failed to push Ukraine beyond that same threshold of irreparability.
Russia’s industrial base is vastly larger than Ukraine’s. Give Russia just a few months of breathing room, and it could accumulate a large stockpile of missiles while developing and producing large numbers of advanced drones and counter-drone systems. If the war then resumes, Russian ballistic missiles and drones could potentially destroy Ukraine’s industrial base and defence-production capacity on a massive scale, pushing Ukraine beyond that threshold, while a large proportion of Ukrainian drones could be intercepted.
A ceasefire would undoubtedly be the finest gift Comrade Trump, the FSB’s ace undercover operative, could possibly deliver to President Putin.
Alas, the America that has faded in to legend, the America of Washington, Roosevelt, Reagan, Carter and Bush!
