(The Chinese version of this article was published on 2 Mar 2026)

On January 14, 2026—the day after the clerical regime’s mass slaughter of protesters—I predicted in my article “預言哈梅內伊的歸宿：GBU-57 (The ending of Khamenei: GBU-57)" that Khamenei would be killed by a bomb, and I explained why. That has now come to pass.

As early as October 2024, in “伊朗如何跳進以色列用一年挖的坑 (How Iran fell into the trap which Isreal spent a year to lay)" I wrote:

After October 7, Israel learned a painful lesson. They realized that if they continued to play by the rules of proxy warfare—striking only the pawns and not Iran—Israel could never avoid the next massacre… Once Iran is subdued, its three proxies will naturally become harmless… Israel has decided to take action against Iran.

Iran’s wicked clerical regime has lost support from China and Russia and no longer dares to provoke trouble abroad, losing its ability to divert domestic contradictions outward. Its collapse is just around the corner… The Middle East is about to quiet down.

It seems this, too, is nearing fulfillment.

Before getting to the main point, an interesting interlude: I woke up this morning and opened the ABC app to hear the news that Khamenei had been killed. Simultaneously, I saw a “MAGA fan" commenting on my previous prophecy, baselessly claiming my prediction was inaccurate. I replied: “The moment you saw the news of Khamenei’s decapitation, you said to yourself: ‘Crap! The person who actually understands things got it right again!’ So you rushed to this post to run damage control. Am I right? Is the MAGA camp really that afraid of my prophecies?"

Below, I analyze how long this war will last and the future of the Iranian regime.

How Long Will the War Last?

Iran is a large country with vast territory, but it is also governed by extreme stupidity and stubbornness. There is an old saying: “He won’t turn back until he hits the brick wall." The Iranians? They won’t turn back even if they hit the wall—in fact, they won’t turn back even if you beat them to death.

Look at the primary threads of this situation:

1. Iran has no foreign aid. Russia is mired in the Ukrainian swamp and can barely save itself. China has always talked a big game about “sacrificing for friends," but runs away the moment it faces a real tough guy. A few months ago, when Iran was pummeled by the U.S. and Israel—losing its president, top generals, and nuclear scientists—China and Russia didn’t dare utter a peep.
2. The Middle East seeks stability. Other Arab nations know Israel has no intention of bullying them. They realize that peaceful coexistence with the U.S. and Israel leads to prosperity. Iran is now the only bully left in the Middle East, and everyone is looking at it with disdain.
3. Israel alone is enough to beat Iran senseless. Behind Israel stands the United States—the world’s undisputed number one economic and military power.

With these three realities, any leader with an IQ over 70 would know that to survive, they must normalize relations with the U.S. and Israel immediately. But Khamenei would rather be blown to bits than stop Iran from being the rabid dog plaguing the world. This level of stupidity and stubbornness is almost non-human.

During the last round of hostilities, Iran retreated after a minor retaliation because regime change wasn’t the goal. The “Old Thief" (Khamenei) didn’t care how many others were killed as long as he kept his throne. But this time, the U.S. and Israel have explicitly stated they want regime change. Iran is facing death regardless, so it may struggle more desperately this time.

However, this will not become a multi-year war of attrition as “experts" in mainstream media suggest. Why?

• First, Iran is not Hamas. Hamas is an extremist terrorist organization. Because of this, Muslims worldwide donate to it. It doesn’t need hardware like ports, airports, or power plants; it only needs “cannon fodder"—Palestinians willing to die. As long as there is money, there is an inexhaustible supply of such people. Thus, Hamas is nearly impossible to destroy completely. Iran, however, lacks that universal appeal. No one is donating to “the state of Iran." Iran is a country; without ports, oil terminals, and factories, it collapses. Without barracks and tanks, the people will overthrow it. These facilities can be destroyed at any time by the U.S. and Israel, who hold total air superiority. In fact, it would only take 10 to 20 bombs to level the Kharg Island oil terminal, halting exports and triggering a total collapse. The U.S. and Israel haven’t done this yet only to avoid a massive humanitarian crisis for innocent civilians.
• Second, the infiltration of Iran’s government and military is unprecedented. Iran once formed an elite counter-intelligence unit to root out Israeli moles; it turned out the entire unit, including the head, were Israeli informants. There is no one in the Iranian hierarchy that Israel cannot eliminate. If you are still alive, it’s only because Israel doesn’t want you dead yet. This will become increasingly obvious as Iran’s power wanes.

---

The Fate of the Iranian Regime

There are three possible outcomes:

1. Overthrown by the People (40% Probability) Experts doubt this because they think the Revolutionary Guard is too powerful. They believe the regime will simply use machine guns again, as they did during the last protests. But they forget the “Remote Control Bomb" effect. Khamenei, the only one with the “authority" to order the massacre of 20,000 people, is dead. Will the next leader have that same grip or courage? Furthermore, if the U.S. and Israel aren’t already coordinating with Iranian protesters, I’d be surprised. Once the air strikes take out the hardliners, the military will be leaderless. A “leader" who was only chosen because he was in the right place at the right time might hesitate to order a massacre while looking up at a Reaper drone.

2. Surrender to Survive (50% Probability) The current power holders surrender, give up nuclear ambitions, stop trying to destroy Israel, and cut off Hamas and Hezbollah. They become a “harmless" state like the Taliban’s Afghanistan. This is the outcome the U.S. and Israel desire most.

3. The Regime Withstands the One-Month Strike (10% Probability) U.S. Command previously stated ammunition reserves might only last two weeks. If the clerical regime sacrifices wave after wave of leaders and refuses to budge, the U.S. might run low on munitions while facing domestic MAGA pressure and Arab ally unrest. Trump might then pull a “TACO" (Total Abandonment of Current Objectives), claim victory, and go home. If Iran survives this, the global impact would be deafening. If the U.S. exhausts itself and can’t even subdue a tattered Iran, it would prove utterly powerless against Russia or China. This would embolden Russia to annex Ukraine and the Baltics, and China to launch a forceful unification with Taiwan.

Launching a regime-change war with only two weeks of ammo is a reckless gamble that only Comrade Vladimir Trump—who thinks with his ego and his groin—would take. No previous president would have placed the world at such high risk.