On January 14, 2026, the day after the theocratic regime massacred protesters on a large scale, in my piece 言哈梅內伊的歸宿：GBU-57, I predicted that Khamenei would be killed by a bomb.
On March 2, in My Prophecy Fulfilled: The Fall Of Khamenei & The Future of the Iranian Regime, I was the first person in the world to point out that a moderation of the current Iranian regime is America’s most desired outcome. A few days later, similar reports about American intentions began to appear.
I also pointed out that the prospect of Iran refusing to yield would be a nightmare for America and the world. Iran’s selection of Khamenei’s son as the new leader signals Iran’s determination to fight to the end. Iran has also begun mining the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have surged sharply, diesel in Australia is close to running out, and industries dependent on it — such as livestock — face ruin.
Trump may have led America and the world into a pit so large and deep that the Afghan quagmire will look trivial by comparison.
Imagine the following scenario.
You and your wife are shopping at a mall when a woman accidentally steps on your wife’s foot. The woman smiles apologetically and rushes to say sorry, but your wife loses control, erupts in a torrent of abuse, grabs the woman by the hair and starts punching her. At that moment, you’d be horrified and pull your wife back:
“Are you crazy? What are you doing?!"
You’ve separated them and are apologising to the woman, when her husband charges out of a nearby shop and punches your wife to the ground, straddles her and beats her bloody. Would you stand by and say to your wife: “Serves you right for acting crazy"?
Of course not. In that moment, your frustration at your wife’s behaviour vanishes — because it was only a surface-level emotion — and what awakens is the deep love of years of marriage. You’d throw yourself at that man like a madman.
One of the handful of genuinely perceptive Chinese political commentators, Lao Zhou Hengmei, recently made a programme in which he used the fact that 95% or even 99% of Chinese people support the CCP to infer that the vast majority of Iranians support the theocratic regime. I think that since the Iranian government has managed the economy far worse than the CCP and treated its people far more brutally, the proportion of Iranians who support the regime should be smaller than the proportion of Chinese who support the CCP — but saying it’s around half seems reasonable.
Among the opposition, many people are angry simply because of runaway inflation, but don’t necessarily oppose the Islamic fundamentalist system at a fundamental level. Once America reduces their homeland to rubble — especially as civilian casualties mount rapidly (Iran will follow Hamas’s playbook and hide weapons in residential areas), and friends and family are killed — the anti-government sentiment of these people may quickly be replaced by national pride and solidarity, rallying them around the government. The tiny minority who truly despise the regime and would rather see their country razed to the ground than live under theocratic rule will no longer dare to speak up.
There are many historical examples of foreign invasion causing anti-government citizens to swing behind their government:
- In the early 19th century, Russia’s serf system left the peasantry in misery, full of grievances against Tsar Alexander I, with uprisings occurring regularly. When Napoleon invaded Russia, the serfs who had previously hated the government did not see the French as liberators — instead they spontaneously formed guerrilla units and cooperated with government forces in a scorched-earth campaign.
- In 1982, Argentina was under the military junta of General Galtieri — the economy had collapsed, inflation was extreme, and the people were tired of dictatorship, with protests constant. To deflect domestic tensions, the junta decided to seize the British Falkland Islands. When Britain dispatched a task force to fight back, the very crowds that had been protesting the government flooded the squares, chanting in support of the nation.
- In 1980, the Iranian Islamic Revolution had just concluded, the country was in extreme turmoil, and many people opposed the newly established theocracy. Saddam saw this as an opportunity to attack — but Iraq’s invasion actually consolidated Khomeini’s regime, with many secular Iranians and military officers who had been lukewarm about theocratic rule rallying behind the government.
In my previous article I said Iran’s theocratic regime is as stubbornly foolish as aliens. Once the majority of Iranians unite in solidarity behind their government, even if America bombs Iran into rubble, they will only fight more resolutely.
Because I don’t know the current mindset of the Iranian people, I can’t be certain whether they will rally behind the government or whether the government will fight to the end. But judging by Iran’s choice to elect the son of the slain leader and its mining of the Strait of Hormuz, it is at least a non-trivial possibility — wouldn’t you agree?
Comrade Vladimir Trump has already become Putin’s greatest saviour. He is also the CCP’s greatest saviour. And now, he may become the greatest saviour of Iran’s theocratic regime.
This is why I don’t call Comrade Trump’s camp MAGA — I call them MEGA: Make Enemies Great Again.
Israel shares a land border with Gaza. Tanks can penetrate the heart of Gaza within hours, and drones have hovered over it year-round. Even so, the Israeli military not only bombed Gaza repeatedly for months, but also swept through it with ground forces like a comb, time and again, before finally largely subduing Hamas.
Iran’s territory is 4,500 times the size of Gaza, and its population is 41 times larger. Iranians don’t need to be as alien-like in their stubbornness as the regime’s leadership — they only need to be as stubborn as Hamas, and America would have to mobilise for total war, launching a ground invasion with hundreds of thousands or even millions of troops to fully subdue the Iranian people. The national debt would increase by $10 trillion within a year. America currently pays more in debt interest than it spends on defence; at that point, interest payments would be 1.5 times what they are now, defence spending 1.5 times what it is now, and fiscal bankruptcy would be nearly inevitable. Once America is bogged down in an Iranian quagmire — with its arsenal depleted and its treasury empty — the CCP launching a military unification campaign and occupying Taiwan becomes a certainty.
Why didn’t previous American presidents strike Iran? Because they were all civilised people who wore shoes. They didn’t act unilaterally — they relied on think tanks and experts, who would invariably tell the President that all-out war could strengthen the theocratic regime, that the war could drag on indefinitely, that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed, causing catastrophic damage to the global economy.
But in today’s America, only one person makes decisions — Comrade Trump — and everyone else is a yes-man. And Vladimir does not think with reason; his ego drives his impulses.
Since Comrade Vladimir Trump took office:
- He has been played by Putin like a toy in the palm of his hand, while Russia steadily tightens its grip in Ukraine;
- He is now planning to lift sanctions on Russian oil and gas, using energy scarcity as a pretext;
- Because China has a stranglehold on America’s rare earth supply chain, he has made concession after concession to the CCP, permitting the sale of critical AI chips to China;
- America’s former European allies are rushing to visit Beijing — the CCP has become the darling of Canada and Europe alike.
MEGA — Make Enemies Great Again. Perfectly apt, isn’t it?
做个明白人 