The US-Iran War: America Totally Defeated

Long-time followers of my writing know that I never distort facts to prove myself right, nor do I let my personal feelings about a politician override the facts. I don’t attack a politician’s not-bad policies simply because I dislike him — on the contrary, I only criticise policies I believe are bad. For example, despite my deep contempt for Trump, I still expressed support for several of his policies in my piece “評川普上台後的九條新政“.

So when I say “America has been totally defeated," I am not being alarmist, nor am I venting anger.

Before the US and Israel launched the war on February 28, Iran had only threatened to blockade the Strait of Hormuz — it never dreamed of actually controlling and administering it.

“Blockade" and “control" are worlds apart.

The Houthi militia once blockaded the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea. But they were a million miles from actually controlling it.

A terrorist firing a sniper rifle sporadically from a distance can empty Times Square in New York. But is that anywhere close to him controlling Times Square — collecting rent from every business there?

Yet now, Iran has begun charging ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz a staggering $3 million per vessel. And Trump’s response?

“We could form a joint venture with Iran and collect the fees together."

This implies two things:

First, Trump has acknowledged Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz. If Iran had no sovereignty, on what basis could it charge fees? Why can’t the US go and collect fees in China’s Yellow Sea? Why can’t Australia go and collect fees in Turkey’s Bosphorus Strait? Because they have no sovereignty there — correct?

Second, bandits seizes a hilltop and charges every traveller and merchant passing along the road below. The authorities being unable to defeat the bandits is forgivable. But if those same authorities then set up their own checkpoint downstream to rob the already-robbed travellers a second time — can you still call them authorities? Aren’t they just bandits themselves?

And all of this in just ten years.

Ten years ago, America was the beacon of freedom and moral high ground that all the world’s oppressed peoples looked up to.

Ten years later, America is a fucking bandit — and a pathetic one who has been beaten into submission by another bandit a hundred times weaker than itself.

Yes, most of Iran’s military-industrial and nuclear facilities have been destroyed. But the point is: from now on, the US and Israel will never dare strike Iran again. That single fact determines everything.

Through this war, Iran has learned that the reason it ultimately prevailed is the missiles and drones it preserved deep inside underground tunnels. Going forward, Iran will invest ten times the resources into expanding its underground tunnel network, moving missile and drone factories and warehouses underground too. China and Russia will certainly provide them with ever more advanced missile and drone technology. If the US and Israel strike Iran again, Iran will launch even more devastating attacks on the critically important oil, gas, and desalination facilities of surrounding countries, and blockade the Strait of Hormuz once more. This time the US and Israel were powerless to stop it — next time they will be even more powerless.

So unless the US and the world are prepared to go all-in — launching a much larger, sustained, relentless campaign against Iran, even deploying hundreds of thousands of ground troops — Iran will from this point on be free to develop its military strength undisturbed. Toll collection on Hormuz will dramatically increase its revenues. Within a few years, Iran’s military will be far stronger, and it will be the same if not more hostile toward the US and Israel. Hamas and Hezbollah will both make comebacks, stronger than before. Iran may ultimately join the nuclear club.

So Trump has absolutely succeeded in making Iran great again.

In my earlier pieces " The Consequences of Trump’s Reckless War: The Fall of Taiwan is Almost Inevitable" and " The Prelude to Taiwan’s Fall Has Begun," I have already fully elaborated on the consequences of America’s catastrophic defeat. So Trump has absolutely succeeded in making China great again.

Russia’s oil revenues have now surged sharply. A recently leaked tapping of a phone call between the Hungarian Foreign Minister and the Russian Foreign Minister sounded nothing like a conversation between two foreign ministers of independent sovereign nations — it was the spitting image of an FSB spy talking to his handler. And yet Trump continues to fully back Orbán, with Vance even personally travelling to Hungary to show his support.

Without a doubt, Trump has absolutely succeeded in making Russia great again.

Only America and its former democratic allies are suffering — from soaring oil prices and an ever more aggressive Russia.

MAGA: Make Adversaries Great Again.