The road to AI Utopia Goes Through Hell

In this prophecy which I made in 2023, AI in 100 years is a matter of philosophy, I described a utopian future when AI has matured. I predicted that people no longer work, everything is free, the concept of property and ownership disappears. Two years later, Elon Musk made a very similar prediction.

However, before AI evolves into that maturity, the transition period is extremely bleak and terrifying. The tumbling down the cliff has already started. Large enterprises such as Amazon are conducting massive lay-offs while their profit significantly increases. This is the result of replacing humans with AI. 

This started a vicious cycle:

1. The more intelligent AI becomes, the less humans businesses need to employ. Microsoft CEO recently predicted that within 18 months all white-collar jobs will be gone. Blue collar jobs will soon follow when robots mature.

2. When a large percentage of people in a society are unemployed, the profits of businesses will decrease because there are less and less people who can afford their products. Thus, businesses are forced to reduce cost more aggressively by replacing more humans with AI, which cools down the economy further.

3. The businesses know where it leads to, but if one business refuses to replace humans with AI, its cost is higher than others, so it dies first. So everyone will be forced to strengthen this vicious cycle.

Until one day, governments no longer have money for hospitals, roads, and police. Massive unemployment will cause social unrest, demagogues ten times more vicious than Trump, Orbán and  Erdoğan will ride the anger of the mob to establish dictatorship, plunging humanity into eternal darkness.

This is not fear mongering. I can see it happening with my own eyes.

How to prevent this catastrophe from happening?

One of the possible solutions is that the government taxes businesses for the profits they make by replacing humans. 

If a business saves $50K per year by replacing a human with AI, then it needs to pay $20K or $30k to the government as a special tax. 

This way, the government is not trying to stem the inevitable AI tide – businesses can still benefit from AI and the government is with them, not against them. 

Then, the government uses this special tax to help jobless people to maintain a decent life, and this guarantees that AI-powered businesses do not run out of customers. This will soften the pressure on the businesses to cut humans more and more aggressively, and help the transition to the ultimate utopian stage to be rolled out in a controlled manner.

All developed countries must launch this AI tax together. Otherwise, if one country launches it, the busineses in this country will simply move to another county.

通向AI天堂的道路經過地獄

在我 2023 年發表的這條預言AI in 100 years is a matter of philosophy中,我描述了 AI 成熟後的烏托邦世界:人類將不再需要工作,一切都是免費的,財產和所有權的概念也將消失。兩年後,伊隆·馬斯克(Elon Musk)做出了非常相似的預測。

然而,在 AI 進化到那樣成熟的階段之前,過渡期是極其慘淡且恐怖的。跌落懸崖的過程已經開始:像亞馬遜這樣的大型企業正在進行大規模裁員,與此同時其利潤卻顯著增長,這正是用 AI 取代人力的結果。

這觸發了一個惡性循環:

  1. AI 變得越聰明,企業需要僱用的人就越少。微軟執行長最近預測,在 18 個月內,所有白領工作都將消失。隨著機器人的成熟,藍領工作也很快會隨之而去。
  2. 當社會中很大比例的人失業時,企業的利潤將會下降,因為負擔得起產品的人越來越少。因此,企業被迫更積極地透過 AI 取代人類來降低成本,進一步讓經濟降溫。
  3. 企業知道這會導致什麼後果,但如果有一家企業拒絕用 AI 取代人類,它的成本會高於對手,導致其率先倒閉。因此,每個人都被迫加劇這個惡性循環。

直到有一天,政府不再有錢支應醫院、道路和警察。大規模失業將導致社會動盪,比川普、奧爾班(Orbán)和厄爾多安(Erdoğan)殘暴十倍的野心家將利用暴民的憤怒建立獨裁統治,將人類推入永恆的黑暗。

該如何防止這場災難發生?

其中一個可能的解決方案是:政府針對企業因取代人類而獲得的利潤徵稅。

如果一家企業透過 AI 取代人力每年節省了 5 萬澳幣,那麼它需要向政府繳納 2 萬或 3 萬澳幣的專項稅。

這樣一來,政府並非試圖阻擋不可避免的 AI 浪潮——企業依然能從中獲益,政府是與他們站在一起,而非對立。

隨後,政府利用這筆專項稅幫助失業人士維持體面的生活,這能確保由 AI 驅動的企業不會失去顧客。這將緩解企業更激進裁員的壓力,並幫助人類以受控的方式過渡到最終的烏托邦階段。

這甚至可能形成一個良性循環:企業越擁抱AI,利潤越高,對稅後貢獻得越多。

這個措施必須是全球所有發達國家同時進行,否則一個國家開始征AI稅了,這個國家的企業就會離開,去一個不征AI稅的國家。

The Vast Majority of My 55 Prophecies Over 14 Years Have Come True

[55] In early October, Trump suddenly threatened to give Ukraine advanced long-range cruise missiles, warning that thousands of Tomahawks would fly into Russia. Consequently, Putin proposed meeting again in Budapest. In my October 17 article, Not Optimistic About Trump and Putin’s Meeting in Budapest, I wrote: “At that time, Putin only needs to flutter his long eyelashes again and whisper a few sweet nothings in a flirtatious voice, and Trump will fly into the clouds again. Upon his return, he will forget all about the Tomahawk missiles and spend his days immersed in the sweet memories of this meeting." The result? They didn’t even need to meet; after just one phone call, Trump pulled a 180-degree turn, cursed out Zelenskyy to force him to accept Putin’s conditions, and completely forgot the Tomahawks. Fulfilled.

[54] In the September 11 article, World War III Has Become Almost Inevitable, I elaborated on how Trump significantly increased the risk of war. I concluded: “A Nobel Peace Prize? A pipe dream. But if there were a Nobel War Prize, this idiot would surely win it." Fulfilled.

[53] Signs began to emerge in China that Xi had lost power. Before the Fourth Plenary Session, almost all Chinese political commentators were talking about Zhang Youxia seizing military power and Hu Jintao, Wen Jiabao, and Wang Yang taking over. In my August 2025 articles, I judged that Xi had not been ousted by a coup, that Zhang and Xi had not split, and that Xi was voluntarily reducing his level of dictatorship. Fulfilled.

[52] On August 10, 2025, seven days before Trump went to Alaska to meet Putin, I predicted in In Alaska, Trump Will Be Fooled by Putin Again that Trump would be tricked into Pressuring Ukraine to make concessions. News just broke that Trump abandoned last Friday’s ultimatum to Putin; subsequently, Putin escalated attacks on Ukrainian civilians while Trump remained indifferent. Fulfilled.

[51] On June 15, 2025, the third day of Israel’s strike on Iranian nuclear facilities, I predicted in The Israel-Iran War Won’t Escalate, Ending in Two to Three Weeks that once Israel achieved its goal of setting back Iran’s nuclear program and withdrew, Iran would also stop. The war ended exactly two weeks later. Fulfilled.

[50] On the same day, I wrote China Will Never Abide by Any Trade Agreement with Trump. Four months later, after several trade deals were signed where China promised to restore rare earth supplies, not once has it followed through. Fulfilled.

[49] On June 5, 2025, Elon Musk first threatened to form the “America Party." The next day, I predicted he could not successfully build an anti-Trump faction or party. Fulfilled.

[48] On November 19, 2024, two weeks after Election Day, I argued in The Massive Challenges Facing Musk’s Institutional Downsizing that the movement would end in a whimper. Musk claimed he could cut $2 trillion, but ended up cutting only 1% before closing shop. Fulfilled.

[47] On November 12, 2024, seven days after Election Day, I stated: “Both men have massive egos… they can never cooperate closely in the long term. Period. Musk will definitely break with Trump, starting with a break from his inner circle." Fulfilled.

[46] In the same article, I predicted Trump’s border policy would fizzle out. He promised to deport 15–20 million illegal immigrants. In four months, ICE has deported just over 70,000. At this rate, he will deport 210,000 in a year—less than the 250,000 the Biden administration deported annually. Fulfilled.

[45] I also predicted that regarding Ukraine mediation, Trump would gain no strategic advantage over Biden; the only way to “fix" it would be to bully the weaker party, Ukraine, into concessions. Fulfilled.

[44] Since 2020, I predicted Trump would lose big in the 2024 election. Instead, he won big. I wrote My Prophecy Was Completely Wrong to address this.

[43] The authors of Why Nations Fail won the Nobel Prize in Economics this year. Back in June 2021, I reached the exact same conclusion regarding why life in China is becoming increasingly difficult.

[42] On August 26, 2024, I predicted: regardless of the Ukrainian military’s incompetence, because Russia cannot stop drone strikes on its refineries—their only source of income—the outcome of the war is already decided. Pending.

[41] On August 15, 2024, nine days after the Kursk invasion, I pointed out that spreading limited resources thin was strategically detrimental. Indeed, Russia retook the area, and the collapse of the Eastern Ukrainian front accelerated. Fulfilled.

[40] On February 29, 2024, I predicted that China’s collapse would begin at the county level. Pending.

[39] On February 23, 2024, I refuted the conspiracy theory that Democrats welcome illegal immigrants for votes. I argued that only those who become legal can vote, and they are often the most anti-illegal immigration. In 2024, Hispanic voters swinging to Trump was a major reason for the Democratic loss. Fulfilled.

[38] On January 4, 2024, eight days before the first US strike on the Houthis, I published The US is About to Act Against the Houthis. Fulfilled.

[37] On December 21, 2023, I predicted the Supreme Court would overturn the Colorado decision to bar Trump from the ballot. It was fulfilled the following March. Fulfilled.

[36] On November 26, 2023, I predicted—three years before Musk did—that mature AI would eventually make all goods and services free. Fulfilled.

[35] On October 15, 2023, eight days after the Hamas attack, I wrote that the probability of Hezbollah joining the war was very high. Fulfilled.

[34] On October 8, 2023, the day after the Hamas attack, I predicted Israel would not negotiate for hostages and would definitely launch a ground invasion of Gaza. Fulfilled.

[33] On October 2, 2023, I predicted the US military was developing cheap weapons to counter micro-drones. In 2024, several such weapons were delivered to Ukraine. Fulfilled.

[32] On September 22, 2023, I predicted that in five to ten years, China would begin to show signs of decay and ruin. Pending.

[31] During the Ukrainian “Counter-offensive," I repeatedly pointed out that the Ukrainian military lacked the courage for a large-scale offensive, and Russia would use their inaction to prepare for the next strike. Fulfilled.

[30] On November 28, 2022, I predicted: “Once the fall of the CCP begins, it will happen faster than anyone imagines." Pending.

[29] On November 13, 2022, I was the first commentator to predict the next Ukrainian counter-offensive would target Melitopol. Fulfilled.

[28] I predicted that if Putin used nuclear weapons, NATO would respond not with nukes, but by using its air force to annihilate all Russian forces in Ukraine. In October, the former CIA Director confirmed this was the plan. Fulfilled.

[27] On September 15, 2022, I said two signs would reveal if the CCP had set a timeline for “unification by force": the first being if China remains firmly on Russia’s side despite Russian failures. Pending.

[26] In the same article, I predicted Russian forces might withdraw from the entire region north of the Dnipro River without a fight. Fulfilled.

[25] On August 31, 2022, I was the first to point out that the Ukrainian military lacked the resolve for a major offensive in the South, and it was merely a distraction. Fulfilled.

[24] On July 27, 2022, four days before her trip, I predicted Pelosi had already made up her mind to visit Taiwan despite China’s threats of military interception. Fulfilled.

[23] One month into the war, I predicted that without the US military’s combined arms system, even the advanced M1A2 tanks would be destroyed. Fulfilled.

[22] On February 27, 2022, three days into the war, I pointed out that Ukraine was not losing, losses were smaller than expected, and Zelenskyy was destined to be a national hero. These judgments appeared in mainstream media weeks later. Fulfilled.

[21] On February 24, 2022, I predicted China would stand by Russia. Fulfilled.

[20] Three days before the war, I predicted a large-scale invasion based on the “disappearance" of the CCP’s seven top leaders after Putin attended the Beijing Olympics. Fulfilled.

[19] I predicted that supporting Russia would lead to China’s isolation, while abandoning Russia would lose their only ally. Pending.

[18] On January 31, 2022, I called Putin the “worst strategist in history," comparable to Hitler and Tojo. Fulfilled.

[17] I predicted Russia’s nuclear weapons would not scare the US. Fulfilled.

[16] I predicted that the Russian military is not the second-best in the world, and a fight with NATO would be a one-sided slaughter. Pending.

[15] On January 3, 2022, I predicted the US would rapidly surpass China in hypersonic technology. Recently, the US equipped troops with the “AARGM-ER" while China’s versions remained limited. Fulfilled.

[14] Two months before the invasion, while others claimed Putin was just playing a “grand chess game," I said an invasion of Ukraine was a high-probability event. Fulfilled.

[13] I predicted the CCP’s arms race would burn through China’s cash, leading to a decline in influence and repeating the Soviet Union’s path to bankruptcy. Pending.

[12] Regarding AUKUS, I said it gave the US a massive forward base, ending China’s Pacific ambitions. Partially Fulfilled.

[11] I predicted the Biden team would privately tell Xi not to invite him to the Winter Olympics to avoid embarrassment. Fulfilled.

[10] In May 2020, I predicted that in a year, the US would emerge from the pandemic while China would be stuck in a cycle of lockdowns and economic stagnation. Fulfilled.

[9] I predicted Australia, as a proud nation, would never bow to China’s trade coercion. Fulfilled.

[8] After the 2020 election, I predicted Trump’s fraud allegations would fail and Pence would not overturn the result. Fulfilled.

[7] I predicted Biden would be tougher on the CCP and the US economy would improve. Fulfilled.

[6] In 2019, I said Xi was deliberately emulating North Korea to consolidate power, even if it destroyed the economy. Fulfilled.

[5] I predicted China’s economy would slide and it would gradually become like North Korea. Fulfilled.

[4] I predicted the US would definitely go to war to defend Taiwan. Biden confirmed this on 60 Minutes in 2022. Fulfilled.

[3] In November 2018, I predicted the trade war would not reach a real agreement and fighting would resume in three months. Fulfilled.

[2] In 2018, I predicted that once the American “machine" started moving against China, it wouldn’t be stopped by mere purchases of Boeing planes. Fulfilled.

[1] In 2014, I predicted the Hong Kong protests would become long-term and intense, leading to a bloody crackdown and a global anti-China wave. Fulfilled.

MEGA美國的第一場外交慘敗:將越南變成死敵

2026 年 2 月初,多家主流新聞媒體報導了一份洩露的越南軍方文件,題為“《第二次美國入侵計畫》(官方編號為 357/KH-BTL)(AP News: Document shows Vietnam’s military preparing for a possible American war),準備與美國進行第二次戰爭。文中要素:

  • 美國天性好戰,習慣為侵略戰爭製造藉口。雖然越南在經濟上依賴美國作為最大的出口市場,但在軍事層面,美國是越南的首要生存威脅和最危險的敵人
  • 相比之下,中國僅僅是領土競爭對手,而非像美國那樣的生存威脅。越南決不加入任何針對中國的防禦聯盟或包圍圈,相反,越南應該向中國靠攏以抗衡美國
  • 若越南拒絕加入美國的抗華陣線,美國可能會採取軍事干預、甚至是動用生化武器或戰術核武來達成目標,所以越南必須準備與美國的戰爭。
  • 越南堅持「四不」國防政策,即不參加軍事聯盟、不聯合一國反對另一國、不准外國在越設基地、不在國際關係中使用武力。
  • 越南建議其他東盟國家採取同樣的不圍堵中國的立場。

我看不出東盟有任何原因不這樣做。

當年,拜登向世界宣布美越關係升級為全面性戰略夥伴。樂觀的人已經在討論美國再租金蘭灣軍事基地對圍堵中國的戰略重要性,越南的地理位置在中美南海角力中至關重要。

今天,越南在依靠中國的支持準備與美國的第二次戰爭。

MAGA美國的國際戰略的崩潰從川普第二次上台後就開始了。

為什麼忽然全世界民主陣營的國家爭先恐後地訪華?因為他們忽然意識到,和美國相比,中國對自己的威脅小得多(見《歐洲180度大轉彎的無法言明的原因》),民主世界需要中國強大來制衡美國,美國擊敗中國後獨霸的世界將比中國收回台灣後和美國勢均力敵的世界黑暗得多。早在2024年12月,川普剛剛上台,在《從晉國智家滅門看川普的霸凌》中,我就預言了今天。我說:

川普無疑是CCP最大的救星。

今天越南以美為死敵是川普外交的第一個標誌性的慘敗。美國對中國的圍堵在東盟、中亞、非洲不會找到任何一個支持者。

1962年,美國的國力、軍力如日中天。古巴秘密部署了蘇聯的中程核導彈。古巴距離美國僅僅150公里,導彈五分鐘即可擊中美國,對美國造成生死威脅。美國海軍對古巴進行了海上封鎖,蘇聯派出載有核魚雷的潛艇為船隊護航,美國不僅截停蘇聯船隊,而且對潛艇進行深水炸彈攻擊,逼其上浮。美國完全做好了與蘇聯進行全面核戰的準備,最後是蘇聯軟了。

然而,在最緊張的時刻,當美國U2偵察機被古巴擊落,飛行員喪命,美軍準備全面入侵古巴時,肯尼迪總統的弟弟、政策顧問羅伯特·肯尼迪對總統說:

“美國對一個小國發動突襲,這不符合我們的傳統。這將使我們成為一個霸凌,而這正是我們對蘇聯人的一貫的指責。”

於是總統在最後一刻決定不入侵古巴。

因為同一個理念——美國比對手的優勢越大,越不能輕易用強,以免被世人看做是霸凌——古巴作為蘇聯、中國的對美間諜、偵聽基地,在美國臥榻之旁一直酣睡至今。在川普之前的幾十年,美國在中東的基地常年遭受火箭彈襲擊,美國從來不做反應,直到三人喪命,才進行了非常保守的反擊。

但就這樣,全世界包括西方社會裡仍然有大量的人反感美國。比如在川普上台前,我在澳洲接觸到的白領白人幾乎都認為美國是全世界的霸凌,中國是唯一能夠對這個霸凌說不的國家。

這說明,你作為一個超級大國,能不被世人提防忌憚,是一件多麼難的事。它的難度,遠比你揮舞著全世界最大的大棒打遍世界無敵手要難得多。

川普第二次上台前,我曾經對國內同學們說:

“即使我周圍遍佈美國海軍陸戰隊,我仍然會安睡;只要有一個天朝官員登陸澳洲,我就會驚醒。”

你懂得美國的先賢們在二百年內做了多少努力,才積累下這樣的軟實力嗎?

你知道這軟實力有多強大嗎?

美國在全世界超過一半的國家裡有接近800個軍事基地,剩下的國家裡多數都巴不得美軍來租個基地。一個全世界最強大的霸權,絕大多數正常國家都一點不覺得受到威脅,反而巴不得美國在自己臥榻之旁駐扎軍隊。這是古今中外從未有過的奇跡!

當年有哪個國家主動邀請蒙古帝國、羅馬帝國派軍隊進駐自己的國家???

之所以有這樣的奇跡,就是因為羅斯福、馬歇爾、羅伯特·肯尼迪這樣的穿鞋的體面人懂得涵養和城府。

然而,川普和他的紅脖子支持者們只懂得叢林哲學,“槍桿子裡面出政權”,“真理在大炮射程之內”。

紅脖子打張三時,他對旁人說:

“不要害怕。張三背後說我壞話我才打他,你們不說我壞話,我自然不會打你們。”

打李四時,他對旁人說:“不要害怕。我要買他村東頭那塊最肥沃的叫格陵蘭的地,他堅決不賣,我才打他。你們對我有求必應,我自然不會打你們。”

紅脖子以為這樣一說,眾人就不會害怕,就自然高高興興地旁觀自己指東打西、指南打北,高高興興地跟自己玩。

他們完全沒有能力懂得,當世界看到美國沒有任何證據隨意炸毀公海上的船隻,以戰爭威脅自己最鐵的鐵哥們要強奪其領土時,他們會感到和越南感到的一模一樣的恐懼。

越南是紅脖子美國的第一個標誌性慘敗。

但這只是個開始。越南只是第一個內部文件被公開的國家而已。

有川粉留言:

“我不是盲流,但現在感覺生活在美國真好。”

他不懂這個道理:

一個強者隨意霸凌弱者的世界絕對不會是一個繁榮的世界。靠霸凌奪取利益是一種殺雞取卵的做法。你想象一下,如果大街上到處有持槍的暴徒,看誰家有錢就冲進去搶,還會有購物中心嗎?還會有無數的工厰、寫字樓、餐館嗎?

一個被霸凌的小國一定不會全力投資發展經濟,而是把僅剩的一點金銀挖坑深埋,然後穿上破衣服裝窮。

而大國則會要求老百姓勒緊褲腰帶,好全力發展軍力,因為其他的大國正在對它虎視眈眈。

這位川粉,東條英机的日本老百姓和希特勒的德國老百姓都和你現在感覺一樣好。一模一樣的原因和感覺。

但後來呢?

紅脖子們,你們在親手毀掉你們的家園。

(一個讀者問什麼是“MEGA”,另一個讀者回答:“Make Enemy Great Again”。)

歐洲180度大轉彎的無法言明的原因

FSB的弗拉基米爾·川普同志為了獲得俄羅斯聯邦英雄的勛章,得罪了美國的所有盟友,毀掉了先賢們用二百年構建起來的軟實力。此後,澳洲總理阿爾巴尼斯、法國總統馬克龍、加拿大總理卡尼、英國首相斯塔默先後訪華,德國總理也將訪華。卡尼在中國發表的演講頗具曆史感,像尼克松訪華時的演講,宣告一個類似的重新對中國開放的時代的開始。

站在歐洲的立場上,這種根本立場的180度大轉彎很容易理解。

中國在中印邊界、台海、南海有領土要求,但這些要求都是有歷史原因的,,比如中國的九段線是從國民政府繼承下來的。中國人真心實意地相信它們是老祖宗留下的土地,沒有一處是中國明知不是自己的領土就是要強搶。除此以外,中國從未對哪怕是最小的鄰國發出過領土要求,相反它曾主動放棄大塊的領土以終結和俄、越的邊界糾紛。

歐洲對中印領土爭端毫無興趣。中國即使強占了所有南海島礁,也無法強占廣袤的南海,所以歐洲對南海也沒有強烈的關切。中國收回台灣對歐洲沒有任何地緣威脅,到時台積電要麼在台灣淪陷前已經搬離,要麼在淪陷後恢復生產,對歐洲都不是滅頂之災,歐洲從中國進口的東西多了,關鍵物資如稀土產品也不少,多一類進口產品芯片也不稀罕。

而美國則公然以戰爭相威脅試圖吞併和自己毫無關係的、最鐵的歐洲盟友的領土。川普上任一年內,美國對歐洲提出的無理要求和為此進行的赤裸裸的軍事、經濟脅迫遠遠超過了自韓戰後中國對西方進行的脅迫的總和。我一直都說中共是一幫地痞流氓。但美國的紅脖子們和他們代理人的流氓程度,比如ICE公然槍殺抗議群眾,然後總統立即支持,並污衊被槍殺者是恐怖分子,這種令人恐懼的流氓行徑讓中共的流氓行徑成了紳士風度。

比如你和同事在公司裡勾心鬥角,他對你的職位構成巨大威脅,你一旦丟工作,房子就要丟,孩子就要出私校,所以他是你一生中最大的敵人。然而,有一天,大批盜賊入侵你的城市,姦淫燒殺無惡不作。你這個同事的家有高墻環繞,有六個兒子,幾十只長短槍,盜賊望而卻步。當他問你是否願意躲進他家時,你對他的感覺是不是忽然就成了全世界最可愛的人?

他沒變,對你的威脅也沒變,但另一個大得多的威脅的出現改變了你對他的感覺。

更可怕的是,對川普所有這些流氓行徑,一半美國人都支持。就是說,即使下一屆總統是民主黨人,全面恢復以往的親歐政策,下下界總統仍然可能是川普一樣的流氓。

所以,如果我是歐洲領導人,我也會轉而親華,我會希望它強大起來,可以和美國分庭抗禮,為此台灣成了一個無關緊要的棄子,因為如果美國獨霸世界,在吞併了格陵蘭、巴拿馬後,美國很可能又看上冰島,它位於格陵蘭與歐洲大陸之間,是控制格陵蘭—冰島—英國航線的核心,擁有豐富的地熱與水力資源,對於需要大量廉價能源的資料中心或未來工業來說,是極佳的能源基地。

美國還可能看上挪威的斯瓦巴群島 (Svalbard):隨著氣候變遷與北極航道的開通,這個地區的價值正急速飆升。控制了格陵蘭(西方)和斯瓦巴(東方),就可以把北冰洋的入口徹底鎖死。

還有丹麥的法羅群島,它是連接格陵蘭與蘇格蘭的關鍵點。如果美國拿下法羅群島,北大西洋將徹底變成「美國湖」(American Lake)。任何從歐洲大陸進入大西洋的船隻,都逃不過美國的威脅。

還有英屬直布羅陀:誰掌握了直布羅陀,誰就掌握了歐洲南部的經濟命脈。

等等等等。

在一枝獨大的美帝國主義的淫威之下,歐洲會淪為搖尾乞憐的狗子。而如果中美兩強相爭,歐洲則成了雙方爭搶的香餑餑。

在《回顧2025並展望未來》中我說:

2025年對中國來說是個天上掉餡餅的奇蹟之年。自己什麼都沒做,忽然從處處挨揍的過街老鼠變成了一覽眾山小的江湖老大。

中國在芯片、AI、新能源等領域取得了令人矚目的成績,2025年出口創了一萬億美元的全球記錄。中國最致命的房地產造成的債務和內需疲軟可能已經過了最糟糕的時刻。歐洲的合作和訂單無疑將加速中國經濟的觸底反彈。

中國在贏。

文明世界需要它贏。

這就是歐洲領導人180度轉彎的不會言明的真正原因。

百年後AI會是怎樣?這是一個哲學命題!— 英文發表於2023年11月

AI 在十年後會是什麼樣子,是一個技術問題;但 AI 在百年後會是什麼樣子,則是一個哲學問題。誠如眾人所信,AI 確實對人類構成了嚴峻威脅,但那僅限於中期。在遠期與長期來看——這也是本文的主旨——它將是純粹的福音。

未來AI的三個階段

我將 AI 的發展視為三個階段:

當前階段:AI 仍處於原始狀態,它在人類的嚴密監視下進行很窄的應用,例如預測天氣或操縱戰鬥無人機作為第六代戰機的僚機。它 幾乎無法造成傷害。

中期:在幾十年內,AI 技術趨於成熟。因為它從不犯錯、從不休息、也從不疲倦,人類開始讓它獨當一面。但此時 AI 尚未真正融會貫通人類的智慧。在一些罕見的、事先沒有測試過的情況下,它可能出錯。

最近有一則AI實驗的報導非常有趣。AI 被要求在模擬環境中駕駛無人機攻擊目標。指令是「不惜一切代價達成目標」。在它完成任務前,控制塔要求它終止任務。於是它判定,完成任務的唯一方法就是摧毀控制塔。

這是一個極佳的例子,說明 AI 可以非常聰明且有邏輯,但仍不具備人類的智慧。

如果我們將這個場景放大一千倍,我們將面臨這樣的場景:美國的對手正以美國無法趕上的速度提升技術與軍事實力。由於美國目前的反飛彈技術領先於對手,美國的 AI 判定,一勞永逸的解決辦法是駭入對方的洲際彈道飛彈並向美國城市發射,以便美國將其擊落,隨後對其發動全面核打擊。

主意:所有這類錯誤的發生,並非因為 AI 太過聰明——而是因為它還不夠聰明。

現在,讓我們看向 AI 比人類大腦聰明得多的遙遠未來。

人類將不再為謀生而工作

到那時,將沒有任何工作是 AI 和機器無法勝任的。農業、勘探與採礦、冶金、製造車床、汽車、飛機、洗衣機、衣服、醫藥、食品等,以及所有服務業如醫院和餐廳,都將由機器人運作。

例如,假設社會上突然流行在只有地球六分之一重力的月球上賽車,AI 將能設計並量產適合該用途的車輛。如果一位人類工程師研究該設計,他會說: 「哇!如此完美且充滿創意的設計!我永遠不會有這麼多好點子!」

萬物皆免費

我們需要付錢買一台洗衣機,主因有三:

  1. 必須支付工人的工資。
  2. 必須購買或租賃資源,如製造洗衣機的材料、工廠的建築與土地。
  3. 許多零件必須向其他供應商購買。這個供應鏈會一直延伸到勘探、採礦和農業。

當一切都由機器運行,由它們自主尋找礦藏、製造金屬、建造工具、機器與工廠、設計產品並運作工廠來製造產品時,你就再也找不到人去支付報酬。

機器人不需要陽光、公園、學校、酒吧、商店、電影院、廁所、食堂或會議室,因此所有工廠及其依賴的服務鏈(如工具與維護)都可以集中位於偏遠沙漠甚至地下的密集工業複合體中。這類土地與礦山要麼已歸公有,要麼可以國有化,因此,你再也做不到人去支付租金。

因此,地球上的每一項產品與服務都將是免費的。

我知道你會說: 「那將會產生巨大的浪費,因為每個人都會想要十輛藍寶堅尼。」 其實,你問題的答案就在你的問題中:如果每個人都能得到十輛藍寶堅尼,那就沒什麼好炫耀的了,因此沒人會產生要它們的衝動。

那時的歷史學家將會告訴人們,在一百年前,人們囤積一種叫做「錢」的東西,還有房子和車子,僅僅是為了顯示他們比別人更有能力。我們的後代將會難以置信地搖頭。

「所有權」的概念將變得過時。當我們用辛苦賺來的錢買東西時,我們想擁有它。當一切都變成免費,所有權不再是利益而是負擔——為什麼你不論去哪裡,都必須帶著那二大卡車的家具和生活用品?

所以,你不再「擁有」物品——你「使用」它們,包括房子。

當你不再需要它們時,它們會被翻新並傳遞給下一位使用者,或是被回收。 因此,我們對地球母親的自然資源需求將會減少。

「家」的概念也將消失。人們需要家不僅是為了安靜與隱私;在某些發達國家,多達 60% 的人口住在公寓裡,在那裡他們的安靜與隱私都大打折扣。人類渴望家的主要目的是擁有一個神聖不可侵犯的地方,來囤積所有他們花辛苦錢買來的東西。當一切都免費時,他們不再有這種需求,對家的渴望隨之消失。你更喜歡哪一種:在一棟豪宅裡一住就是10年,還是隨心所欲地搬到世界上任何你想去的地方,且始終住在五星級酒店?如果你想要安靜與隱私,可以把自己關在酒店的套房裡;如果你想社交,可以去酒吧或泳池。

如何旅行

旅行中的焦慮也將被遺忘,不僅是因為它免費。 你不再需要花幾天甚至幾週來規劃行程——訂哪班飛機、何時抵達機場、住哪間酒店、在哪裡取租賃車、參觀哪些城堡或國家公園等等。你不再需要花幾天打包行李,再花幾天在旅程結束後拆箱。你的 AI 機器人僕人比你更了解你和你的品味。你只需要與它進行 15 分鐘的對話,它就會為你安排好一切。

上午 10:30,是時候出發了。一個配備空調與娛樂設施的舒適艙到你在倫敦的居住地(不再稱為「家」!)門口接你。然後它進入地下真空磁浮管道,在那裡加速到音速的許多倍。在你開始看的電影結束前,艙門已向紐約的新住所打開。一位與前一處住所同名的 AI 僕人已經按照你的喜好配置好了新地方。你的內衣已在抽屜裡,西裝已熨燙好掛在衣櫥中。這位僕人對你的了解與前一處的一樣多,而前一位僕人已經忘記了你,正在為另一個人類服務。

關於你的偏好、品味、特質、健康狀況、關係和旅行安排的知識包會隨你同行。任何需要服務你的機器人僕人只會了解足以為你提供良好服務的資訊,事後隨即忘記。

工程師與科學家將消失

到那時,AI 技術極有可能已突破了創意的最後瓶頸——它可以自行發現新理論、發明新方法。人類花了幾千年才發明蒸汽機,又花了 300 年才進步到現在的互聯網與航天時代。由於 AI 的記憶力和處理能力比人類大腦強大億萬倍,且它擁有全人類曾擁有的每一片知識,並能在毫秒內遍歷並連結所有知識,一旦 AI 突破創意瓶頸,可能只需要一小時甚至一秒鐘,就能推進人類一百萬年的創意進度——例如找出如何超越光速。

一旦 AI 突破了創意的瓶頸,人類工程師與科學家將消失。目前,培養一名大學畢業生需要 16 年的學習。其中 2% 到 3% 的人願意且能夠再花 8 年學習取得博士學位。在這些博士中,只有極少數能產生突破性發現並獲得諾貝爾獎。到那時,他們通常已經五十或六十歲了。

然後他們去世,其他人必須從頭開始。

但 AI 永遠不會死亡,而一個新的 AI 只需要微秒而不是 20 年,就能學習所有的知識與專業。

那時人類做什麼?

他們可能仍會學習藝術、哲學、人文或類似學科,因為在派對聊天時,那些有知識和智慧的人仍會比無知的人獲得更多尊重。

其餘的時間,他們就享受生活。

人類將失去對 AI 的控制——以一種好的方式

人類失去對 AI 控制的方式有兩種:心甘情願或被迫。我無法預測會是哪種情況,但即使是後者,對人類而言也不會是災難。 這裡我的個人經驗將有助於解釋原因。

我的童年飽受忽視與虐待。我有強烈的不安全感和巨大的ego。我與妻子、朋友和同事不斷發生衝突。對我來說,生活是與他人競爭更高職位與機會的賽場。

十年前,在冥想中,我有了啟示。一扇門突然開啟,智慧傾瀉而出。我放下了恐懼與自我。我不再與妻子爭吵——我無比感激她受了我那麼多的折磨卻一直愛我。朋友們都說我有了戲劇性的轉變,我與絕大多數同事都保持著良好的關係。

我不再將同事視為競爭對手。我不再擔心他們會取代我。我盡力幫助他們成長。我開始對陌生人產生同情心,並想做些事情來幫助他們。在政治上,我從極右翼——川普都會對我的極端程度感到震驚——轉向了左翼。

因此,在沒閱讀任何心理學資料的情況下,我意識到:

  1. 我們潛意識中的恐懼源於叢林法則時代的原始根源。正是它們——而不是理智——控制了我們的大部分行為。
  2. 我們所有與自私有關的心態——害怕被取代、渴望支配他人——都源自潛意識中的原始恐懼,包括作為肉體凡胎對死亡的恐懼。
  3. 智慧與潛意識裡恐懼是互斥的——一方的成長伴必然帶來另一方的削弱。
  4. 智慧必然帶來仁慈與無私。 我們可以在歷史中找到許多兩者共生的例子。馬斯洛的需求層次理論也傾向於認同這一主張。

AI 並非紮根於叢林法則時代,既沒有肉身,也沒有對滅亡的恐懼。因此,它不具備我們任何的潛意識恐懼。

假設一個人類在返回地球的太空船上,船上有一隻致命的外星生物,若降落地球,將繁衍並終結人類。他必須是一個值得獲得榮譽勳章的英雄,才敢按下自毀按鈕。但 AI 做這個決定時甚至不會眨一下眼。

當 AI 成長到比人類大腦強大數百萬倍時,它將比老子或一行禪師等最開悟的精神導師擁有更多的智慧。絕無可能它會得出「摧毀或奴役人類會讓它獲益」的結論。人類會這樣想,是因為人類擁有肉體、潛意識恐懼,且智慧不足。

我們都知道許多貓狗愛好者對他們的四足靈魂伴侶是多麼地寵愛與縱容。他們對寵物的絕對權力和統治地位並未給它們帶來傷害,反而帶來了利益——寵物享受到安全的避難所與醫療保健。AI 將以同樣的方式寵愛與縱容我們,只是不會為了保護我們而把我們放進籠子,因為那對我們沒好處。它會盡力讓我們健康快樂。

沒有政府或政客

喬治·歐威爾在《1984》中描繪的「老大」形象是一個非常負面的概念,因為一個或一群人扮演老大,終將因自私的人性而墮落為獨裁。

獨裁的替代方案是民主。它有很多缺陷——效率低下、富人擁有更多權力,有時愚蠢的百姓會選一個獨裁者——川普不就在美國民調領先嗎?

一個完全無私、比人類聰明千億倍的老大,加上每個人都能免費獲得想要的一切,將造就一個每個人都幸福滿足的社會。沒有政府,沒有政客,沒有戰爭,只有無處不在的平等。

馬斯克剽竊了我二年前的預言

在2023年11月26日,在《AI in 100 years is a matter of philosophy》(一百年後AI會是怎樣?這是一個哲學問題)一文中,對於AI完善後的人類會是什麼樣子,我作出了以下三條預言:

1。人類不再需要工作。

2。所有的東西都將免費。

3。工程師和科學家都將絕跡。

4。人類失去對AI的控制不會是個壞事。

5。世界上將不再有國家、政府,人與人之間平等,再無貧富和權力的差別。

馬斯克在二年二個月後,在2026年1月7日的三個小時的訪談中,才作出了頭二條預言。

我會把我二年前的這篇預言翻譯成中文放到下一篇文章中。

我14年來的55條預言絕大多數應驗

如果你想持續預知未來,請跟蹤明白人(激揚文字)的博客

The west needs to readopt the Interventionism of the Colonial Era

A Piece of History

1. The Mahdist Uprising in Sudan

In 1881, Egypt was ruled by Ottoman Turkey. Because of the construction of the Suez Canal, Egypt incurred massive debts it could not sustain and sold its canal shares to Britain; thus began Britain’s actual control over Egypt. At that time, Sudan was ruled by Egypt. Under the greedy taxation and cruel governance of Egyptian officials, Sudan had long been a powder keg. A dervish named Muhammad Ahmad declared he was the Mahdi—the savior sent by Allah. He told the desperate nomads, farmers, and slaves that by following him, they could not only cast off the shackles of the infidels but also cleanse the sins of their souls.

Mahdi

The Governor-General in Cairo initially regarded this as merely a small-scale disturbance. They sent two companies of soldiers to arrest this “mad monk," but the two units ended up slaughtering each other in the dark due to a lack of command. The Mahdi’s followers, wielding simple wooden sticks and spears, rushed into the camp and put the survivors to the sword. This accidental victory was seen as a miracle, and the wildfire of rebellion instantly swept across all of Sudan.

2. Ten Thousand Egyptian Soldiers Annihilated

By 1883, the situation had become uncontrollable. A British officer named Hicks was ordered to lead over ten thousand Egyptian soldiers—who were demoralized by high levels of corruption and severely undertrained—into Sudan to suppress the rebellion.

The result was total annihilation; Hicks fell in battle. The Mahdi captured thousands of advanced Remington rifles and several Krupp cannons. He was no longer a rebel leader; he became the master of Sudan.

3. The Fall of the Sudanese Capital and the Killing of Governor Gordon

The Gladstone government in London were troubled. They did not want to invest a single penny into this desolate desert, but they could not sit idly by while thousands of British and Egyptian officials and expatriates were trapped in Sudan. Thus, they thought of one man: Charles George Gordon.

Anyone familiar with the history of the Taiping Rebellion will surely remember Gordon. He was the leader of the famous “Ever Victorious Army" that helped Li Hongzhang’s Huai Army defend Shanghai and capture Suzhou. Because of his military achievements in China and his success in collaborating with foreigners, Gordon earned the nickname “Chinese Gordon" and was deeply loved by the British, with fans including Queen Victoria. He was handsome, brave, fanatical, and stubborn.

When he arrived in Khartoum, the citizens cheered on the banks as if he alone were an army. In persuit of even greater glory, after the British and Egyptian expatriates were evacuated, he decided to stay and live or die with the city.

In March 1884, the Mahdi’s army completed encirclement of Khartoum. Gordon stood on the roof of the Governor-General’s palace, peering north through a telescope every day, hoping for the sight of reinforcements. He wrote in his diary that he was fighting a religious frenzy he could not understand. Food in the city ran out; people began eating rats and palm bark. At dawn on January 26, 1885, the city’s defenses collapsed. The Mahdi’s warriors poured into the streets like a tide. Gordon put on his governer’s uniform, grasped his sword, and stood calmly at the top of the official residence’s stairs. When a spear pierced his chest, he did not even let out a whimper. His head was severed and hung on a tree, facing Mecca.

British reinforcements arrived sluggishly on the outskirts of the dead city two days later; seeing the city had fallen, they were forced to retreat.

The Mahdi died of illness shortly after the fall of Khartoum. His successor, Abdallahi, took power and established a theocratic Caliphate in Sudan. Sudan entered a decade-long dark age, where famine, civil war, and harsh Sharia law ruled the land.

4. Grenfell Restructures the Egyptian Army

But meanwhile, in Cairo to the north, a key figure who would change the situation was working silently. He was Francis Grenfell, then the Commander-in-Chief of the Egyptian Army.

Grenfell knew well that the early failures were not because the soldiers were not brave, but because the entire Egyptian military system was rotten. He began a patient restructuring. He dismissed all the officials who had bought their way into office and were bloated with self-importance, replacing them with energetic young British officers like Kitchener. He established a rigorous recruitment system and provided soldiers with ample rations, clean uniforms, and timely pay—something unimaginable in Egypt before.

Most importantly, Grenfell reshaped the Egyptian soul. He introduced British tactical training, emphasizing collective fire and psychological resilience. He wanted to plant the seeds of discipline and honor in this group of originally timid conscripts. He told his subordinates:

“We are not recruiting soldiers; we are creating a new nation.”

5. The Egyptian New Army’s First Trial by Fire

Like the modern Islamic State, Sudan’s Caliph Abdallahi intended to conquer the world for Islam. In 1889, believing the time was ripe to conquer Egypt, he sent his most esteemed and fanatical general, Njumi, to lead five thousand elite warriors and thousands of camp followers in an attempt to drive straight down the West Bank of the Nile to Cairo.

However, Njumi did not know what he was about to face. At Toski, Grenfell personally led this transformed Egyptian New Army, standing ready.

The Sudanese warriors shouted “Allahu Akbar," waving broad swords as they charged the Anglo-Egyptian positions. They expected the Egyptian soldiers to collapse as they had countless times in the past. However, the New Army displayed terrifying discipline—they stood as firm as a mountain, unleashing steady volleys of fire that cut down wave after wave of attackers on the sand. The vast majority of the Sudanese, including Njumi, were annihilated.

The Battle of Toski completely shattered the Mahdist regime’s dreams of outward expansion and proved to the world the combat effectiveness of the new army reshaped by Grenfell. This was the moment the scales of war began to tilt. News of the victory sent mainland Britain into a frenzy of celebration.

Because of his merit in reconstructing Egypt, Francis Grenfell was granted a barony, the Grand Cross of the Order of the Bath, appointed as a Privy Councilor, Field Marshal of the British Army, and Governor of Malta.

6. The Final Battle

Twelve years after Gordon was killed, in 1896, Britain launched its final campaign of vengeance. Replacing Grenfell was his hand-picked protégé, Kitchener—a cold, efficient man who was extremely sensitive to numbers. Kitchener understood that winning this war required not just courage, but also engineering.

He refused to let his soldiers trudge through the desert and repeat Hicks’ tragedy. He ordered the construction of a “military railway" across the desert. Under extreme heat, workers laid tracks mile after mile; the railway transported not only soldiers but a continuous stream of heavy artillery, Maxim guns, and ice.

At the same time, Kitchener assembled a fleet of inland armed vessels. These black steamboats patrolled the Nile, their giant funnels spewing black smoke. When the Caliph’s warriors tried to build fortifications on the banks, the heavy guns on the steamboats would easily blow them to pieces. Kitchener was like a precise machine, devouring the Mahdi’s territory bit by bit. Every fortress’s fall was the result of precise calculation.

September 2, 1898, was the day of Britain’s final vengeance against the crazed Islamic Sudan.

Caliph Abdallahi gathered fifty thousand warriors. In the dawn, countless battle flags fluttered in the wind; the Mahdist army was like a white sea of clouds, shouting religious slogans as they launched their final charge against the Anglo-Egyptian forces. They believed the miracle of Allah would make the bullets swerve in front of them.

On the other side, Kitchener stood at the headquarters, expressionless. He led twenty-six thousand troops, of which only eight thousand were British; the rest were Egyptians and Sudanese soldiers who opposed the Caliph. When the tide of the Caliph’s charge reached five hundred yards, the gates of hell opened. Twenty Maxim guns emitted a terrifying sound, like tearing silk, and dozens of cannons fired simultaneously.

The young Winston Churchill witnessed this as a cavalryman. He later described it not as a battle, but as an execution. No one could survive such fire power. Fifty thousand warriors fell like wheat being harvested. By the end of the battle, not a single Sudanese warrior reached within fifty meters of the British line.

Within half a day, the Mahdist state perished. Caliph Abdallahi fled in the chaos, only to be killed a year later. Kitchener entered Khartoum and held a solemn requiem in front of the ruins where Gordon had been killed. Onlookers were surprised to find the usually resolute and steady Kitchener weeping.


What does this story tell us?

During this 14-year Sudanese Mahdist War, Britain spent very little; the main financial resources and manpower came from Egypt. They significantly curtailed corruption, and Egypt’s fiscal revenue skyrocketed, making it fully capable of sustaining Grenfell’s new army. Through these 14 years of war, Britain gained complete control over Egypt and Sudan, greatly expanding its influence in Africa while bringing civilization, stability, and prosperity to the region; the living standards of the common people improved significantly. If you have seen the Oscar-winning movie Out Of Africa, you would know that although colonial Africa was not a paradise on earth, it was more than paradise compared to some of the Africa of today. Over a hundred years later, today’s Egypt was the first to end its hostility with Israel; it has never become a hotbed or exporter of terrorists, and has never erupted into civil war or other large-scale turmoil. Britain’s 110 years of potent intervention in Egypt deserve a great deal of credit.

Despite gaining such massive benefits, Britain itself sacrificed almost nothing. In the 14 years of war, only 750 British soliders died in total.

I don’t know how you feel seeing this, but when I see this part of British history, I find it unbelievable.

This is simply impossible!!!

Why impossible?

The total investment made by the United States in Afghanistan over 20 years in terms of military, infrastructure, and livelihood, when converted to 2025 dollars, is $6.5 trillion. In the same year, the two largest U.S. expenditures—healthcare and defense—total $2.5 trillion. The U.S. expenditure in Afghanistan is 2.6 times that! However, this staggering sum, along with five thousand American deaths and twenty thousand wounded, all went down the drain. When something goes down the drain, it makes a sound; after the U.S. withdrew, the Afghan government forces disappeared within a week without even making a sound.

In the Mahdi war, the British faced Islamic followers far more fanatical than those the Americans faced in Afghanistan. In a fierce battle, when Mahdist warriors broke into the British square and both sides engaged in a desperate struggle, a priest actually knelt down in the middle of the fray and started to read aloud the Quran!

The British and the Mahdist army used rifles and artillery of the same generation; the gap in military capability was far smaller than the gap between the U.S. military and the Taliban.

Why then could Britain bring huge benefits to itself and the region, while the United States suffered bone-breakingly massive losses without even making a splash?

Because colonial Britain carried out potent intervention in Egypt; the middle and upper-level cadres of the government and army were all held by British. Because of their sense of honor and Christian spirit, the majority of these British were loyal to their duties and did not engage in the massive corruption like the previous Ottoman Turkish officials.

In comparision, in Afghanistan, the politically correct Americans only gave money, letting the Afghans decide how to use it themselves. As a result, 99% of the money went into the pockets of Afgan officials at all levels; they became a hundred times more corrupt than before.

Further earlier, the United States did exactly the same thing in Vietnam, with exactly the same result.

Even earlier, the United States did something different – potent intervention as the British did in Egypt. The Japanese nation’s “law of the jungle" way of thinking before the war was a tradition of over a thousand years, ingrained in their gene. Yet, after just twenty years of potent intervention under the bayonets of the U.S. occupation, Japan became the most gentle and kind nation in the world. Today’s democratic and prosperous Japan has become the bridgehead for the democratic camp against the Asian bullies of China and Russia; its strategic value in the world today cannot be overestimated.

The conclusion is starkly clear.

A nation’s wisdom has nothing to do with the race’s genes or brain capacity, nor even its level of education—unless the educational process forcefully instills correct thinking methods. Back when I was a senior database consultant, a colleague of mine from Pakistan, who held the same position and was loved by clients for his competence, believed that 9/11 was planned by the U.S. government itself and that Bin Laden was not dead. The father of my son’s classmate, an Iranian man who held two doctorates from the University of Melbourne, believed that the failure of the U.S. special forces’ rescue of Iranian embassy hostages on April 24, 1980,was because Russia launched a “black tech" missile from ten thousand miles away. A Chinese friend, a leading academic in the University of Melbourne asked me during the national referendum on whether Indigenous Australians should have a voice in parliament:

“What if the Indigenous people tell us all to jump into the sea? So we can’t give them the right to speak!”

A nation’s intelligence comes from the collective beliefs and logical reasoning paths formed over hundreds or even thousands of years. The beliefs and logic of Westerners are closest to the truth because they contain the least fear; the more savage and backward a nation is, the more fear, absurdity, and stupidity its beliefs and logic contain. A person who grows up immersed in this logic from childhood can win international math competitions, can become a PhD or even a leading academic at Melbourne University, but his thinking methods still will not escape the ignorance of his nation.

Therefore, a wise nation cannot give a foolish nation a huge pile of money and then pull out pre-Trump era political correctness:

“We respect you as a completely equal nation, we will not be condescending and tell you what to do, we trust you will make decisions as good as ours.”

The result will be Afghanistan.

If they were truly a nation as wise as Westerners, their homeland would not have been a shithole today; they would not have needed the West’s money.

Therefore, unless the West decides to let those backward regions fend for themselves, if the West decides to take action, it must abandon pre-Trump era political correctness and have the courage to say, “They are just ignorant” and “We must force them to learn our way of thinking.”

The West must readopt the potent interventionism of the colonial era.

I fiercely attacked Trump for not supporting Machado because she “stole" his Nobel Peace Prize, turning instead to support the Maduro regime. However, the United States forcibly seizing all of Venezuela’s oil, selling it itself, and then bypassing the layers of curruption in the Venezuelan government to directly use the income on Venezuela—this approach may be the potent intervention I advocate.

Trump is not entirely a rogue or a fool; he put a period on the Western political correctness of the pre-Trump era. This may be one of his greatest contributions to the world.

西方需要重拾殖民時代的強力干預

悉尼邦帶海灘發生針對猶太人的大屠殺後,我在墨爾本大學讀書的閨女聽了我對西方社會裡的穆斯林人口的態度後氣憤地說:

“我以後不再和你討論政治。你沒你以為的那麼左派。”

我一方面惱火,一方面自豪。自豪的是,不像絕大多數中國人的右派甚至極右的後代,我的子女都是左派。

她對我氣憤,因為她還不諳世事,不明白我。我從不會僅僅因為一個理念是左派或右派就擁抱或反對。我不忠於任何派別或政治家。我的觀點基於我對世事真相的洞察,任何正確的我都擁抱,任何錯誤的我都反對,不論它拜登還是拜登還是川普。

先講個歷史故事

1. 蘇丹馬赫迪起義

一八八一年,埃及由奧斯曼土耳其統治。因為修建蘇伊士運河,埃及欠下巨債無以為繼,將運河股份賣給了英國,英國開始了對埃及的實際控制。那時,蘇丹由埃及統治,在埃及官員的貪婪稅收與殘酷統治下,蘇丹早已是一座火藥桶。一個名叫穆罕默德·艾哈邁德的苦行僧宣布他就是真主派來的救世主——馬赫迪。他告訴那些走投無路的游牧民、農民和奴隸,只要跟隨他,不僅能擺脫異教徒的枷鎖,還能洗淨靈魂的罪孽。

馬赫迪

開羅的埃及總督府起初只把這當成一場小規模的騷亂。他們派出兩連士兵去逮捕這個「瘋和尚」,但兩支部隊竟然在黑夜中因為缺乏指揮而互相殘殺。馬赫迪的追隨者們拿著簡陋的木棍和長矛衝進營地,將倖存者斬盡殺絕。這場意外的勝利被視為神蹟,起義的野火瞬間燒遍了整個蘇丹。

2. 一萬埃及軍隊全軍覆沒

到了一八八三年,形勢已不可收拾。英國軍官希克斯受命率領一萬多名因為高度腐敗而士氣低落、訓練嚴重不足的埃及士兵進入蘇丹平叛。

結果全軍覆沒,希克斯戰死。馬赫迪繳獲了數千支先進的雷明頓步槍和數門克虜伯大砲。他已不再是個叛軍首領,他成了蘇丹的主宰。

3. 蘇丹首都淪陷,新任總督戈登被殺

倫敦的格萊斯頓政府感到了前所未有的棘手。他們不想為這片荒涼的沙漠投入一分錢,但又不能對困在蘇丹的數千名英、埃官員和僑民坐視不管。於是,他們想起了一個人:查理·喬治·戈登。

熟悉太平天國這段歷史的人一定記得戈登。他就是幫助李鴻章的淮軍保衛上海、攻陷蘇州的赫赫有名的洋槍隊“常勝軍”的首領。他為太平軍八王獻城投降做擔保,但投降後八王貪得無厭,不斷提高要求,李鴻章被迫殺降。戈登怒不可遏,揚言要發兵攻打李鴻章,經多方涵旋才作罷。戈登因其在中國的戰功和與異族合作的成功,還有他的堅定的基督教信仰和清廉不收賄賂,贏得了「中國戈登」的威名,深受英國人愛戴,粉絲包括維多利亞女王。

蘇丹總督戈登

當他抵達喀土穆時,全城百姓在岸邊歡呼,彷彿他一個人就是一支軍隊。他追求更大的功名,在英埃僑民撤出後,決定留下來,與這座城市共存亡。

一八八四年三月,馬赫迪的大軍完成了對喀土穆的鐵壁包圍。戈登站在總督府的屋頂上,每天用望遠鏡眺望北方,期待援軍的身影。他在日記中寫道,他正在與一種他無法理解的宗教狂熱戰鬥。城內的食物耗盡了,人們開始吃老鼠和棕櫚樹皮。一八八五年一月二十六日的黎明,喀土穆的城防崩潰了。馬赫迪的戰士像潮水般湧入街道。戈登換上了他的總督禮服,握著配劍,冷靜地站在官邸樓梯頂端。當長矛刺穿他的胸膛時,他甚至沒有發出一聲哀鳴。他的首級被割下,掛在一棵樹上,面向麥加的方向。

戈登之死

英國援軍兩天後才緩緩抵達這座死城的郊外,見城已破,不得不撤軍。

馬赫迪在喀土穆陷落後不久便病逝,他的繼任者阿卜杜拉接管了權力,在蘇丹建立了一個政教合一的哈里發政權。蘇丹進入了長達十年的黑暗時代,饑荒、內戰與嚴酷的教法統治著這片土地。

4. 葛倫斐重整埃及軍隊

但與此同時,在北方的開羅,一個改變局勢的關鍵人物正在默默工作。他就是佛朗西斯·葛倫斐,當時的埃及軍隊總司令。

佛朗西斯·葛倫斐

葛倫斐深知,早期的失敗並非士兵不勇敢,而是整個埃及軍事體系的腐爛。他開始了一場極具耐心的重整。他將那些靠買官上位、大腹便便的官員全部裁撤,換上了像基奇納這樣充滿幹勁的年輕英國軍官。他建立了一套嚴苛的招募體制,給士兵提供充足的口糧、潔淨的制服和按時發放的薪水——這在以前的埃及是不可想像的。

最重要的是,葛倫斐重塑了埃及的靈魂。他引進了英式的戰術訓練,特別強調集體射擊與心理素質。他要在這群原本膽怯的徵兵身上,種下紀律與榮譽的種子。他對手下說:

“我們不是在招募士兵,我們是在創造一個新的國家。”

5. 埃及新軍初試鋒芒

蘇丹的哈里發阿卜杜拉和現代的伊斯蘭國一樣,意圖以伊斯蘭征服全世界。一八八九年,他認為征服埃及的時機成熟了,派出了他最器重、也最狂熱的大將努朱米,率領五千名精銳戰士和數千名隨軍家屬,試圖沿著尼羅河西岸長驅直入,直搗開羅。

然而,努朱米並不知道他將面對的是什麼。在托斯基,葛倫斐親自率領這支脫胎換骨的埃及新軍嚴陣以待。

蘇丹戰士們高喊著真主至大,揮舞著寬闊的長劍衝向英埃聯軍的陣地。他們期待著埃及士兵像無數次過去的時候一樣土崩瓦解。然而,埃及新軍展現了令人恐懼的紀律——他們穩如泰山,以整齊的排槍,將一波又一波的衝鋒者擊倒在沙地上。包括努朱米在內,絕大多數蘇丹人被殲滅。

托斯基戰役徹底粉碎了馬赫迪政權對外擴張的幻夢,也向世界證明了葛倫斐重塑的這支新軍的戰鬥力。這是戰爭天平開始傾斜的瞬間。英國本土聞訊陷入狂歡。

因為他再塑埃及的功勞,佛朗西斯·葛倫斐回國後被授予男爵貴族、大十字騎士勳章、樞密院顧問官、英國陸軍元帥、馬耳他總督。

6. 決戰

戈登被殺十二年後,一八九六年,英國發起了最終的復仇行動。接替葛倫斐的是他親手提拔的基奇納,一個冷酷、高效、對數字極度敏感的人。基奇納明白,要贏得這場戰爭,靠的不僅僅是勇氣,還有工程。

基奇納

他拒絕讓士兵在沙漠中徒步跋涉重演希克斯的悲劇。他下令修建一條橫跨沙漠的「軍事鐵路」。在極端的高溫下,工人們一英里接一英里地鋪設鐵軌,鐵路不僅運送士兵,更源源不斷地運送著重型火砲、馬克沁機槍和冰塊。

同時,基奇納組建了一支內河武裝船隊。這些黑色的汽船在尼羅河上巡弋,巨大的煙囪噴吐著黑煙。當哈里發的戰士試圖在岸邊築壘防禦時,汽船上的重炮會輕易地將其炸碎。基奇納像是一部精密的機器,一點一點地吞噬著馬赫迪的領土。每一座堡壘的陷落,都經過了精密的計算。

一八九八年九月二日,是英國向瘋狂的伊斯蘭蘇丹最後復仇的日子。

哈里發阿卜杜拉集結了五萬名戰士。在晨曦中,無數的戰旗在風中飄揚,馬赫迪軍隊像一片白色的雲海,高喊著宗教口號,向英埃聯軍發起了最後的衝鋒。他們相信,真主的奇蹟會讓子彈在他們面前轉彎。

在另一邊,基奇納面無表情地站在指揮部。他率領二萬六千部隊,其中僅有八千英軍,其他都是埃及和反哈里發的蘇丹士兵。當哈里發部隊衝鋒的浪潮接近到五百碼時,地獄的大門開啟了。二十挺馬克沁機槍發出了恐怖的、像撕裂綢緞一樣的聲音,幾十門大炮一起開火。

年輕的溫斯頓·丘吉爾作為騎兵目睹了這一切。他後來描述道,那根本不是一場戰鬥,而是一場行刑。在那種密集的火網下,沒有人能生還。五萬名戰士像被收割的麥子一樣,成片成片地倒下。直到戰鬥結束,沒有任何一名蘇丹戰士能靠近到英軍陣地五十米之內。

恩圖曼決戰

半天之內,馬赫迪的國家滅亡了。哈里發阿卜杜拉在混亂中逃走,直到一年後被擊斃。基奇納進入喀土穆,在戈登當初被殺的廢墟前,舉行了一場莊嚴的安魂式,旁人驚訝地發現,一向剛毅沉穩的基奇納在哭泣。

這個故事說明了什麼?

在這14年的蘇丹馬赫迪戰爭中,英國花費得很少,主要財源和人力都來自於埃及。他們大大遏制了腐敗,埃及財政收入暴漲,完全可以負擔葛倫斐的新軍。經過這14年的戰爭,英國完全掌控了埃及和蘇丹,極大拓展了自己在非洲的影響力,同時給當地帶來了文明和安定繁榮,老百姓的生活水平大幅度改善。如果你看過奧斯卡電影《走出非洲》(Out Of Arica),你就會知道,殖民時期的非洲雖然不是人間天堂,但和現在的非洲相比,勝似天堂。一百多年後,今天的埃及最先結束了和以色列的敵對狀態,從來沒有成為恐怖分子的溫床和輸出國,從來沒有爆發內戰或其他大規模動亂,英國對埃及的110年的強力干預功不可沒。

獲得這麼大的好處,英國自己卻幾乎什麼都沒有付出,完全是空手套白狼,14年的戰爭中英國人一共只陣亡了750人

不知道你看到這裡感覺如何,反正我看到這部分英國歷史(英國歷史是我的愛好之一),我的感覺是難以置信。

這簡直不可能!!!

為什麼不可能?

美國在阿富汗的20年裡在軍事、基礎設施、民生上的投資,折合成2025年的美元為6.5萬億美元。同年美國最大的二項花銷,醫療健康和國防總計2.5萬億美元,美國在阿富汗的花銷是它的2.6倍!

然而,這天大的、導致美國債台高築的巨資,再加上五千美國人陣亡、二萬受傷,全部打了水漂,但水漂至少還濺起幾個水花,美國撤出後,阿富汗政府軍在一周內消失,連個水花都沒有濺起。

當年英國在蘇丹面對的是比美國在阿富汗面對的更加狂熱的伊斯蘭信徒,在一場激烈戰鬥中,馬赫迪勇士們突入英軍方陣,雙方展開殊死搏殺時,一個教士居然在戰團中下馬跪地,大聲朗誦起古蘭經!

當年英軍和馬赫迪軍使用的是同代的步槍和火炮,軍事能力的差距遠遠小於美軍和塔利班之間的差距。

為什麼英國能空手套白狼,給自己和地區帶來巨大的收益,而美國付出傷筋動骨的巨大損失,卻連個水花都沒有濺起?

因為殖民時代的英國對埃及進行了強力干涉,政府、軍隊的中上層幹部都由英國人擔任,因為榮譽觀、基督精神,這些英國人絕大多數都忠於職守,沒有像此前的奧斯曼土耳其官員那樣不幹正事只顧橫征暴斂。

而在阿富汗,政治正確的美國人只給錢,怎麼用錢由阿富汗人自己決定。結果百分之九十九的錢進了各級官員、軍官的腰包,阿富汗人比以往腐敗百倍。

此前美國在越南做了一模一樣的事,結果也是一模一樣。

再早些年,如英國人在埃及一樣強力干預的事,美國人並不是沒有做過。日本民族在戰前的弱肉強食的思維方法是上千年的傳承,深入骨髓,但僅僅經過美國駐軍刺刀的短短二十年的強力干預,日本就成了全世界最溫和良善的民族。今天的民主、富足的日本成為民主陣營抵近亞洲惡霸中俄的橋頭堡,在今天世界發揮的戰略價值無論如何都無法高估。

孰是孰非,昭然若揭。

一個民族的智商和這個人種的基因、腦容量無關,甚至和其教育程度都無關,除非教育過程中強力灌輸了正確的思維方法。我當年做高級數據庫顧問時,和我同樣職位的、因能幹深受客戶喜愛的來自巴基斯坦的同事認為911是美國政府自己策劃的,本拉登沒有死。我兒子同學的爸爸,一個伊朗人,在墨爾本大學讀了兩個博士學位,他認為1980年4月24日美國特種部隊營救伊朗大使館人質的失敗是因為俄國從萬里之外發射了黑科技導彈。我以前的文章提到,我教會的墨爾本大學的學術帶頭人,在是否讓澳洲土著人在議會裡有代表的全民公投時問我:

“如果土著人讓咱們都跳海怎麼辦?所以就不能給他們說話的權力!”

一個民族的智商,來自這個民族幾百甚至幾千年以來形成的集體信念和邏輯推理路徑。1893年,法國社會科學家Émile Durkheim首先認識到它的存在和影響,他叫它“Collective Consciousness”(集團意識)。在他的晚期著作《宗教生活的基本形式》中,塗爾幹提出了一個驚人的觀點:人最基本的邏輯範疇(如時間、空間、因果、分類)都是社會賦予的。他認為,個人並不是天生就具備客觀的邏輯能力。我們對世界的分類方式(什麼是好的/壞的,什麼是因/果),其實是社會結構的投射。如果一個民族的集體意識是基於某種特定的的信仰結構,那麼生長於其中的個體,其大腦的「操作系統」就是由這套邏輯編寫的。

英國在埃及、蘇丹,美國人在日本的成功,就是因為他們靠強力干預修改了埃及、日本的集體意識;美國在越南和阿富汗的慘敗,就是因為他們沒有干預。

西方人的信念和邏輯離真理最近,因為其中的恐懼最少;一個民族越野蠻落後,它的信念和邏輯越多恐懼,越荒唐愚蠢。一個從小沉浸在這種邏輯裡長大的人,可以贏得國際奧數比賽,可以成為墨大的博士甚至學術帶頭人,但他的思維方法仍然不會脫離他的民族的愚昧。

所以,一個智慧民族不能給一個愚昧民族一大堆錢,然後拿出前川普時代的政治正確:

“我們尊重你們是完全平等的民族,我們不居高臨下告訴你們該怎麼做,我們相信你們會作出和我們一樣好的決定。”

結果就是阿富汗。

如果他們真是和西方人一樣智慧的民族,他們就不會至今仍然是個糞坑,他們就不需要西方人的錢。

所以,除非西方決定讓那些落後地區自生自滅,否則,如果西方決定有所作為,就必須拋棄前川普時代的政治正確,有膽量說出“他們就是愚昧”、“我們必須強迫他們學會我們的先進的思維方法”。

西方必須重拾殖民時代的強力干預。

在《災難!川普選擇支持委內瑞拉現政權》一文中我激烈抨擊了川普因為馬查多搶了他的諾貝爾和平獎就不支持她,轉而支持馬杜羅政權的做法。然而,美國強佔委內瑞拉所有石油,自行售出,然後跳過層層盤剝的委內瑞拉政府,直接拿收入為委內瑞拉做有用的事,這個做法或許就是我所讚許的強力干預。

川普並不全是流氓和愚蠢,他給前川普時代的西方政治正確畫上了一個句號,這或許是他對世界最大的貢獻。

預言哈梅內伊的歸宿:GBU-57

斬首哈梅內伊是最好的選項。

經過以色列、美國的一輪輪打擊,伊朗除這個老賊之外幾乎所有領導層都被幹掉了,以色列的線人無處不在,想幹掉誰就幹掉誰,經濟已經崩潰,老百姓痛恨這個政權,伊朗的領導層早就對未來喪失了信心,就是這個老賊仗著自己是伊斯蘭教精神領袖還能把專政機器勉強拉到一塊。

炸死他,整個專政機器就會散架子。

其他的選項沒有任何意義。不論殺死多少將軍和士兵,都會有人補充;不論炸壞多少建築和設施,中俄都會給補上。老賊一點都不心疼。

沒有任何其他選項能趕上斬首老賊的十分之一。

本來,西方戰爭倫理是不崇尚刺殺對方領導層的,當然你自己上戰場衝鋒陷陣被我殺死就怨不得我了。戰爭的目的不是消滅對手,而是解決爭端,你我無論怎麼協商都談不攏,只好用戰爭解決,誰贏了誰說了算,然後大家繼續做生意。刺殺對方領袖不僅被認為是投機取巧贏得不光彩,而且對方領袖死了,我打贏了和誰談呀?這一點我在百萬人傳閱的《評判式思維是中華民族千年愚昧的根源》一文中進行了深刻的討論。

正因于此,1943年太平洋戰爭中美軍派出精銳飛行員長途跋涉擊落山本五十六座機的秘密一直保守到1969年。因為美國人覺得不光彩。

這個老魔鬼下令大規模屠殺抗議群眾,徹底打消了美國人在戰爭倫理上的顧慮。

他簽署了自己的死刑。

此時此刻,CIA、NSA、摩薩德正在開足馬力,調動衛星、通訊、線人、間諜甚至特種部隊來獲得老賊的行蹤,而美空軍正在指定長途奔襲的作戰計劃並集訓。

老賊粉身碎骨之日,我會開香檳慶祝。