This article is written against the backdrop of a political and military alliance formed by the US, Australia, Japan and other democratic partners to face off the unprecedented threat from the communist China.
I can see that the diplomatic and military effort of this alliance is currently focused on changing the behavior of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), or perhaps forcing it to change its leader. Should this strategy work, and CCP replaces Xi with a more liberal candidate such as the current premier Li Keqiang or Wang Yang, it would be the Ally’s short-term tactical victory but long-term disaster.
It is a fundamental and disastrous mistake to attribute CCP’s hostility toward the democratic west to Xi personally. Instead, there are three root causes for this hostility, none of them having anything to do with Xi.
Firstly, in Confucius ideology, the right and the evil can never coexist, and the right must eliminate the evil at all costs and means – lying, breaking promises, back-stabbing and alike are all forms of wisdom not treachery if the end is to eliminate the evil. My article “儒家文化: 中华民族千年愚昧的根源” discussed this topic thoroughly.
In this mentality, CCP, being an extreme form of despotism, believes that the west must be wanting to eliminate itself at all costs. Therefore, no matter how many genuine kind gestures the west makes toward them, CCP will always interpret them as deceptive tactics of a long-term elaborate strategy to entrap them and finally defeat them.
Taiwan is a big wedge between the US and China that makes sure that they will never be friends. When China threatened Taiwan’s democratic election with missiles overhead in 1996, the US sent two aircraft carrier groups. CCP’s thought process was this:
“You said you were our friends, you said you wanted to help us, but why would you threaten us with such a mighty force when all we wanted to do was to take back what had always belonged to us? You are clearly not our friend!”
Therefore, all the back-stabbing that CCP has been doing on the US, in the last 20 years, not just the last six years since Xi took office, while the US was helping China to rebuild and join the international family, CCP did it with a clear conscience, because they were simply being deceptive and back-stabbing toward the same deceptive and back-stabbing opponent.
Secondly, a westerner can never comprehend the thoroughness of CCP’s brain-washing. They not only brain-washed their subjugates, they also brain-washed themselves. After three generations of such brain-washing, no one in CCP knows what the western democracy really is. To them, the western democracies are all malicious evils that just want to see the demise of the great Chinese nation.
Therefore, no matter who replaces Xi, this ingrained hostility toward the democratic west will not change. What will change is only the deception tactics they adopt – maybe next tactic devised by the next leader will work better?
Thirdly, in a previous article “中美兩個民族的根本差異是什麽？“, I talked about the very low moral standard in China. In such a political system, even if the leader is retard, he may still gain solid control over the whole country, because no one cares how good or bad he is, and everyone flocks to him and says: “If you give me that lucrative position, I can help you to destroy your enemy or push through that policy.” Once the leader establishes himself as the most likely winner, such flocking effect will happen quickly. Then, when all the powerful positions have been taken by such profiteers, they will fight pretty hard to defend their leader whom they don’t necessarily like at all, because they are all seen as the leader’s men, and if a different person becomes the leader, they all need to go to make place for the new leader’s loyalists. This flocking effect makes Xi appear to be very powerful.
The only mistake that the simple-minded Xi Jinping made was that he exposed CCP’s hostility toward the west too early, well before they have the power to defeat the west. So Xi is in fact the best friend of the west. If he had not become the leader of CCP, if another wiser man did, CCP would continue to gain more and more influence in the west and build up their economic and military advantage over the west. When they feel it is time to show their ugly face, the west would have had no choice but to capitulate.
Therefore, the current focus of the western alliance’s political and military effort, which is to force a behavioral or leadership change in CCP, is fundamentally wrong. It coincides with the best interest of CCP. If they do change their leader, and they declare to the west that they were wrong to be antagonistic, that the west is now their friend, what will we do? We cannot continue to isolate them as we are doing now. We have to give them another chance. Then they will gain crucial time to regain their strength and grow their might. I can bet my life on it that, after a decade or two, when their might is big enough to defeat us, they will do just that.
There is never any chance for CCP and the democratic west to coexist. Giving them a second chance while we could have collapsed them is absolutely equivalent to giving the cancer tumor in your lung a second chance when you could have cut it off cleanly before it spreads.
The other strategically important thing the democratic alliance should do is to establish formal and normal diplomatic relationship with Taiwan. Reasons to do this:
- Taiwan has been the exemplar democracy in Asia for decades so they really deserve it.
- CCP will lose its legitimacy to rule China for losing Taiwan – it will not have the gut to attack Taiwan for its independence with its current military might. It will most probably be rejected by Chinese and collapse.
- After the western democracies recognize Taiwan as a legitimate independent country, when China finally capitulate in this current cold war – which I am sure they will, deceptively or cordially, one of the terms of peace will be that they must formally and irreversibly acknowledge the nationhood of Taiwan.
Once China gives up this ambition to take back Taiwan, the wedge between China and the democratic world is removed, and it becomes possible for China and the democratic world to sincerely coexist. Without this wedge being removed, even if CCP collapses and a semi-democratic government like Putin’s takes over China, which is almost certain, China will continue its effort to take back Taiwan, and the western alliance will continue to be forced to defend her, and the two sides will never be at peace.