History Has Placed Putin on the Same Road Once Taken by Hitler

The orginal article in Chinese was published on 19th December 2021, two months before Putin’s invasion of Ukraine.

Before Hitler came to power, Germany suffered from a 30 percent unemployment rate, the Great Depression, and political turmoil. After Hitler became Chancellor in 1933, Germany rapidly emerged as the strongest and wealthiest nation in Europe. Before he embarked on his military adventures, Hitler was a rising star on the world stage. Leaders from around the world, including Britain and the United States, came to Germany seeking to learn from him.

In March 1936, Hitler violated the Treaty of Versailles by ordering German troops into the demilitarized Rhineland bordering France and Belgium.

In March 1938, German forces marched into Austria, and Austria was annexed into the Third Reich.

Later that year, Hitler threatened war unless Czechoslovakia ceded the Sudetenland, where most of the population was ethnic German. Britain and France yielded at Munich, pressuring Czechoslovakia to surrender the territory.

In March 1939, Hitler tore up the Munich Agreement, occupied the rest of Czechoslovakia, and turned his territorial demands toward Poland.

Britain and France finally warned him:

“If you invade Poland, we will declare war."

In September 1939, Hitler invaded Poland.

Britain and France declared war on Germany.

From that moment on, Hitler had no way back. He was committed to a path from which there was no return.

Was Hitler unaware that the real power behind Britain and France was the United States? Did he not realize Germany could never ultimately defeat America?

Why, then, did he continue down that road?

On the one hand, Germany believed it urgently needed to expand the living space of the Third Reich. On the other hand, Britain and France had been devastated by the First World War. Their populations were deeply opposed to another war. Every time Hitler took another step, Britain and France issued stern protests but still refused to go to war over that single step. Hitler understood this perfectly, and so he advanced one step after another.

But why didn’t he stop after gaining enough territory? Why didn’t he consolidate his gains, rebuild relations with Britain and France, and avoid a wider war?

There were three reasons.

First, when you keep winning while your opponents keep retreating, your own people and your officials begin to worship you. Your confidence inevitably expands into overconfidence, and your contempt for your opponents grows ever deeper. When Britain and France finally declared war, Hitler was genuinely shocked and deeply depressed, because he had never expected them to go to war over Poland.

Second, repeated victories create ever higher expectations among those around you. To preserve your prestige, you feel compelled to seek new victories.

Imagine if Hitler had backed down after Britain and France warned him over Poland.

His supporters would have said:

“Poland is already ours. Britain and France are bluffing. They would never dare fight Germany. The Führer simply lost his nerve!

Imagine the pressure Hitler faced. Continuing to gamble was almost his only option.

Third, every concession made by Britain and France increased, rather than reduced, their hostility toward Germany. With every success Hitler achieved, Britain and France strengthened their military preparations against him.

When you face an increasingly hostile adversary, you do not spend your time imagining sharing a barbecue and a beer together. You worry instead about whether he will strike first. Eventually, you conclude that perhaps you should strike first yourself.

Hitler did not embark upon that irreversible path entirely by choice. In reality, he had very little choice. History, and the circumstances surrounding him, gradually lured—and eventually pushed—him onto that road.

Today, history is pushing Vladimir Putin down the very same road. His circumstances bear remarkable similarities to Hitler’s.

• Putin annexed Crimea. The entire world condemned him, yet no one was willing to go to war with a nuclear power over it.
• He became a national hero inside Russia. Russian confidence soared, and public expectations continued to rise.
• Not only did the United States and Europe fail to stop the annexation of Crimea, but now, with more than 100,000 Russian troops massed on Ukraine’s border and virtually everyone expecting a full-scale invasion after the New Year, the United States has explicitly stated that defending Ukraine militarily is not an option.
• Isn’t this exactly the same pattern of concession after concession shown by Britain and France before the Second World War?
• Putin has concluded that the Western powers are paper tigers. He believes they would never dare fight a nuclear power directly, and therefore he still has much more to gain.
• Meanwhile, NATO has strengthened Ukraine’s military and has become increasingly hostile toward Russia. Putin views this as an existential threat.

The United States and Europe continue warning that a Russian invasion would trigger unprecedented economic sanctions. They assume that Russia could never withstand such punishment and therefore will not invade.

Putin sees things differently.

He believes that absorbing Ukraine would be a historic triumph that would restore the Russian Empire and secure his place in history. If sanctions are the price of that achievement, then so be it.

Russia possesses enormous reserves of oil and natural gas, upon which Europe depends. China can also help offset Western pressure. Russia, in Putin’s view, can survive the sanctions.

Besides, no sanctions regime lasts forever. With skillful diplomacy and by exploiting divisions within Europe, easing sanctions after several years is entirely possible.

That is why, even after speaking with President Biden, Putin continued reinforcing Russian forces along Ukraine’s border.

A Russian invasion of Ukraine is therefore highly probable.

Once Russia invades Ukraine, Putin will have stepped onto Hitler’s road of no return.

He will almost certainly be shocked by the severity of Western sanctions and the damage they inflict upon Russia.

At that point Russia will find itself in exactly the same position as Imperial Japan before Pearl Harbor. American sanctions had pushed Japan toward economic collapse. Japan faced only two choices: abandon Manchuria and withdraw from China, or wage war to seize greater strategic space.

Russia will confront the same dilemma.

History tells us that neither Hitler nor Hideki Tojo chose to retreat. The mindset and circumstances of dictators make retreat almost impossible.

Putin will not retreat either.

At that stage, the military will become his last remaining trump card, and he will have little choice but to use military force to compel the West to abandon its sanctions.

If, after occupying Ukraine, Putin further expands his military ambitions, NATO will inevitably respond militarily.

Its patience will have reached its limit.

If NATO still refuses to fight, Putin’s ambitions will grow without restraint, and the security of Europe will collapse. NATO cannot permit that.

Russia’s conventional forces and nuclear arsenal may be formidable, but they are still smaller than those of the former Soviet Union.

If NATO was prepared to confront the Soviet Union directly, why would it tolerate today’s Russia bullying Europe?

Putin is therefore making a grave strategic mistake by underestimating NATO’s determination.

When he finally receives NATO’s ultimatum, he will once again be stunned—just as Hitler was stunned when Britain and France declared war.

But he will refuse to back down.

And then war will follow.

Once Russia invades Ukraine, the Russia–China (and Iran) axis will formally take shape, and the likelihood of China seizing the opportunity to invade Taiwan will increase dramatically.

This world war, however, will not last six years.

It will probably end within one year.

Nor will it conclude with the defeated powers being occupied militarily.

The United States, Japan, and their European allies need only destroy the Chinese and Russian air forces and navies. Once that happens, China and Russia will be willing to sign an armistice.

Of course, Putin and the Chinese Communist Party would both fall from power.

In my article, “A Military Expert Predicts the Entire Course of the Taiwan Strait War," I describe how I believe such a conflict would unfold. I believe my forecast is largely accurate.

Predicting China’s political future after the collapse of the Chinese Communist Party is even more difficult than predicting the course of a war.

The version I have written is the most optimistic one.

If readers would like to see a less optimistic scenario, leave a comment, and I will write that version as well.