For readers who do not know me: Three months before the outbreak of the Ukraine war, all Chinese-language political commentators unanimously believed that Putin had no intention of invading and was merely playing a highly sophisticated game of chess. I predicted that Putin would definitely invade. Three days before the invasion, I predicted that war was imminent. Since then, I have predicted all the subsequent developments of the war in advance. See here.
Two years ago, in 縱覽烏戰、中東、臺海, I predicted that regardless of how incompetent the Ukrainian military might be, because the Russian military could not stop Ukrainian drone strikes against Russian oil-refining facilities, and because Russia’s oil and gas exports were its only source of income for sustaining its war effort, “the outcome of the Ukraine war has already been decided. There is no longer any suspense whatsoever."
Now this prediction is coming true perfectly.
At this very moment, Ukraine’s Third Army Corps, under the command of Brigadier General Andriy Biletsky, is conducting a counteroffensive in the Lyman area of northern Donetsk Oblast, codenamed Operation Vivaldi. The operation was prepared over the course of a year and began in May 2026, completely frustrating Russia’s attempt to encircle Ukraine’s fortress belt through a pincer offensive. For the first time in the history of human warfare, Ukrainian forces have combined infantry assaults, electronic warfare, aerial drones, and unmanned ground vehicles (UGVs) in combat. So far, they have recaptured 176 square kilometres of territory, inflicted more than 5,000 Russian casualties, and captured more than 250 Russian soldiers. The fourth phase is being planned.
- Ukrainian forces used heavy Griffon drones to transport ground robots loaded with explosives more than 10 kilometres behind Russian positions, launching attacks from unexpected directions. This was the world’s first use of such tactics
- Unmanned ground vehicles have carried out more than 200 strikes and 94 assault or sabotage missions, attacking Russian bunkers, command posts, and drone operators, greatly reducing the risk of Ukrainian infantry being exposed to enemy fire.
- Ukrainian forces used ground robots to complete mine-clearing operations along a 30-kilometre route in just two nights. Using traditional methods, this would have required an estimated two combat engineer companies working for a week. Not a single Ukrainian combat engineer was injured.
- Ukrainian forces destroyed multiple Russian drone launch positions, ammunition depots, and command facilities, forcing Russia to withdraw its elite Rubicon drone unit from the Lyman–Borova sector.
- Ukrainian forces regained control of several settlements, including Nove, Shandryholove, and Katerynivka, and reportedly forced Russia to divert reinforcements from other fronts, disrupting its planned offensives.
In the age of firearms, the attacking side always suffers greater casualties than the defending side, because defenders are sheltered in trenches and bunkers, while attackers must cross open ground that has already been calibrated by the defenders’ artillery. Ukraine’s national strength, military strength, air force, and air-defence capabilities are all far inferior to Russia’s, yet Ukrainian casualties in the Vivaldi offensive have been far lower than Russian casualties.
It is no exaggeration to say that Operation Vivaldi is a miracle in the history of human warfare.
The collapse of Russian frontline combat capability caused by the paralysis of its rear-area economy and logistics, which I predicted in several previous articles in my In-Depth Analysis of the Ukraine War series, is now becoming reality. It is simply happening faster than I expected.
Ukraine is going from strength to strength.
In 1917, the devastating military losses of the First World War, severe food shortages, economic collapse, and widespread public dissatisfaction with the autocratic rule of Tsar Nicholas II ultimately triggered a revolution. Massive demonstrations and strikes broke out in the capital, Petrograd. When the army began to defect and join the protesters, refusing to obey orders to suppress them, the Tsarist regime lost its last pillar of support. On 15 March 1917, Nicholas II was forced to abdicate, ending more than three centuries of Romanov rule.
Now, even those Russian bloggers who have staunchly supported the war are warning that Russia is rapidly heading towards the same fate.
Russia now has no technological means whatsoever to bring itself back from the dead. Against the jet-powered Shahed drones on which Russia had once placed great hopes, Ukraine’s fast interceptor drones and AI-controlled machine guns have already entered production and proven effective. Russia’s economy is heading towards collapse, while the European Union’s support for Ukraine in economic and military technology is becoming increasingly determined as Ukraine goes from strength to strength.
As a death throes, Putin has just ordered the removal of all restrictions on Russian missile and drone strikes against Ukrainian civilian facilities. Russian drones have just struck a bridge in Kyiv, causing minor damage, and have also attacked Ukrainian civilian data centres.
This demonstrates Putin’s desperate state of mind with extraordinary clarity.
Why?
He has sent 1.5 million young Russians into the Ukrainian meat grinder, at least 700,000 of whom have been killed. Two battalions of Russian troops are killed every day. None of this has any effect on his conscience. If slaughtering every Ukrainian civilian—including women and children—could save him from his own downfall, he would do it without blinking an eye.
But throughout nearly five years of war, he has never lifted this restriction. Why?
Because he knows that doing so could not destroy Ukraine’s ability or will to fight. It would only strengthen the Ukrainian people’s determination to fight and Europe’s determination to support Ukraine.
Therefore, Putin’s action at this moment demonstrates, beyond any doubt, his desperate state of mind.
Zelensky said, “Such civilian facilities (bridges and data centres) do not exist only in Ukraine." The implied threat is self-evident. Ukrainians have long been demanding that their military retaliate in kind by striking Russian civilian facilities.
But I do not believe the Ukrainian military will do so. It will continue striking Russian oil-refining facilities, oil-storage facilities, and logistics systems.
Why?
Because it is precisely these strikes that have driven Putin into a corner and forced him to take such a mad action. This proves that these strikes are hitting Russia where it hurts most. Therefore, Ukraine should continue and intensify these strikes, rather than divert its limited long-range drones and even more limited missiles to attack Russian civilian targets. Doing so would not only reduce the damage inflicted on Russia’s war-making capability, but would also strengthen the Russian people’s determination to continue fighting.
Nazi Germany made exactly this mistake during the Battle of Britain. In the first phase of the German air offensive, the Luftwaffe targeted the Royal Air Force, bringing it close to the brink of collapse. But because Germany did not realise how effective its attacks had been and believed they were achieving little, it shifted its targets to central London. As a result, the Royal Air Force gained precious breathing space and ultimately won the Battle of Britain, while the Luftwaffe completely ceased its air raids against Britain.
Friends, the dawn of the collapse of Putin’s regime and Russia’s defeat in the war has already appeared on the horizon.
The day of God’s reckoning is near.
