The CCP learned four lessons from the American-Iranian War:

1. Attempting reunification by force through conventional warfare would result in a crushing defeat for the CCP

Both Iran and Venezuela deployed Russia’s S-300 air defence missiles and China’s supposedly high-tech radar — claimed to be capable of detecting stealth aircraft — yet American and Israeli warplanes swept through as if entering an undefended land. After two weeks of high-intensity airstrikes, the US and Israel achieved complete air superiority over Iran. Not a single aircraft has been shot down by Iranian forces to this day.

Russia’s most advanced S-400 air defence missiles have repeatedly been destroyed in Ukraine by US-made HIMARS rockets developed twenty years ago and Army Tactical Missile Systems developed thirty years ago. By contrast, Russian forces once fired over a dozen of their latest hypersonic missiles in saturation attacks against Ukraine’s Patriot air defence systems — which entered service forty years ago — and every single one was intercepted.

This demonstrates that Russia’s air defence capability is little more than scrap metal against the US military.

It is true that there have been reports of a US F-35 sustaining combat damage and making an emergency landing at a US airbase. But this does not indicate any deficiency in US technology. In the later stages of the Pacific War, the Hellcat fighter — designed specifically to counter Japan’s Zero — enjoyed a crushing advantage over it. American pilots grew ever more experienced while Japan’s veterans died out, with new pilots thrown into combat having barely learned to take off. In the Battle of the Philippine Sea on June 19–20, 1944, experienced American pilots flying Hellcats that utterly outclassed the Zero shot down more than 300 Japanese aircrafts with ease, producing ten ace pilots in a single day. One pilot returning from the mission said: “This wasn’t aerial combat — it was a turkey shoot." And so the battle became known as the “Great Marianas Turkey Shoot." Yet even in this total dominance, the Americans still lost nearly thirty aircrafts. In contrast, during this all-out war against Iran, US forces flew thousands of sorties, struck between 5,000 and 7,000 targets, suffered combat damage to only one aircraft — which still flew back and landed — and lost not a single pilot. This, precisely, demonstrates the crushing technological superiority of the US military.

It is universally acknowledged — and Chinese military experts themselves admit — that China’s radar technology lags Russia’s by ten years. This means that if the US military were ever to launch a large-scale assault on CCP forces, the PLA’s air defence systems would make Russian scrap metal look sophisticated by comparison. If the PLA were to launch a conventional attack or blockade of Taiwan using warplanes, warships, and missiles, the US military and Taiwan’s forces — equipped with the latest American weapons — would thrash the PLA beyond recognition.

In fact, in my October 2021 piece “Predicting the Full Course of a Taiwan Strait War," I was forced to artificially invent a scenario in which Russia supplied the PLA with an extremely advanced S-600 missile system, causing Taiwan to lose its self-defence capability and compelling it to seek US assistance. Without that invention, Taiwan’s own forces would be enough to thrash the PLA, leaving no need for US intervention — but in that story I wanted the US to intervene, so I could show readers how the war would evolve from that point.

2. The US military’s counter-drone capability is critically deficient

The reason Russian forces cannot destroy Ukraine’s Patriot systems is that Ukraine long ago developed comprehensive countermeasures against Iran’s Shahed drones, rendering them unable to threaten the Patriots, which can therefore concentrate fully on Russia’s high-end ballistic and cruise missiles.

By contrast, of the eight THAAD high-altitude missile defence systems deployed by the US in the Middle East, four have been destroyed or damaged by Iran — because THAAD is designed to counter high-altitude, high-speed ballistic missiles and cannot deal with Iran’s low-altitude, low-speed Shahed drones, and the US military’s capability against such drones is far inferior to Ukraine’s.

China’s scientific and technological capability, electronics capability, and artificial intelligence level are a hundredfold superior to Iran’s. China’s drone technology is unmatched in the world — DJI monopolises the global commercial drone market — and China’s manufacturing scale is without parallel. They are fully capable of developing drones a hundredfold more advanced than Iran’s Shaheds: for example, drones that do not rely on remote control, instead using pre-set GPS to approach the combat zone and then autonomously identifying targets through electro-optical sensors. During a military reunification, thousands of such intelligent drones flying across the strait — even if Taiwan’s various missiles achieved a 100% hit rate — would destroy only half of them at most. And China can dispatch thousands more every day. Taiwan’s air defence missiles would be exhausted, its various air and sea radar systems destroyed, and its Harpoon and Hsiung Feng anti-ship missiles rendered blind.

The same drone swarms could devastate Japan’s offensive capability, US military bases in Japan, and carrier battle groups at sea.

Four years ago, when the Ukraine war began, the US military understood that drones had completely rewritten the rules of the battlefield. Yet to this day, they remain unable to prevent the THAAD system — strategically significant, costing three to four hundred million dollars per unit, with a production cycle of four to five years — from being destroyed en masse by drones.

Taiwan’s situation is ten times worse than America’s. The US military has at least been closely tracking the Ukraine war; US weapons have faced Russian drones in actual combat; US intelligence agencies at every level have maintained close contact with the Ukrainian military. Taiwan, by contrast, has no combat experience whatsoever. The CCP’s Fifth Column in Taiwan — the KMT, which sells out Taiwan without the slightest concealment, faithfully following CCP directives step by step — means that a large proportion of Taiwanese people cannot even distinguish friend from foe. This is why the KMT, despite its blatant betrayal of Taiwan, can still win elections. As a result, Taiwan’s politics has long been in a state of semi-paralysis, incapable of the flexible responses seen in the US or Ukraine. The probability of Taiwan rapidly developing counter-drone swarm technology and deploying it at scale within two to three years is zero.

At this very moment, the CCP is certainly pouring unprecedented resources into suicide drone development.

This is one consequence of Trump recklessly starting a war in defiance of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and the National Intelligence Council: exposing to the whole world the greatest vulnerability of the US and Taiwanese militaries — their lack of counter-drone capability — while China happens to be the world’s undisputed king of drones.

3. A new phenomenon in the history of warfare: winning victory simply by absorbing punishment

When Trump took office in January 2025, US national debt stood at $36.2 trillion.

Today, US national debt has already surpassed $39 trillion.

Meanwhile Iran’s attacks on surrounding nations are escalating, and it has just fired an intercontinental missile with a 4,000-kilometre range for the first time. Trump is overwhelmed with no solution in sight.

So even as Iran ratchets up the intensity of its counterattacks step by step and the Strait of Hormuz is completely cut off, Trump has begun talking about withdrawal.

China’s territory is six times Iran’s, its military personnel four times Iran’s, and its military strength twenty to thirty times Iran’s (according to Gemini’s estimates).

Even if the US military could destroy every piece of PLA equipment at zero cost to itself — by the time it had achieved complete air superiority over the Taiwan Strait and China’s coastal provinces and fully suppressed the PLA’s missile and drone capability — America’s national debt would certainly have surpassed 50, perhaps even 60 trillion dollars.

And that’s assuming US losses would be far greater than in the Iran war — which they certainly would be.

America would go bankrupt before the debt even reached 50 trillion.

And before America went bankrupt, the American people would have already voted out the government that decided to intervene militarily in the CCP’s attempt to retake Taiwan by force.

When China launches a military reunification, US intelligence will have long since gauged the CCP’s resolve and readiness for war. If the CCP merely wanted to test the waters — and Taiwan and the US are frightened off, making reunification easy — it gains a huge windfall. If the other side fights to the death, the CCP can pull back. In that case, the US would need to project an image of firm, armed intervention, hoping to frustrate the CCP’s ambitions through a swift, overwhelming victory.

However, if America finds that the CCP is like today’s Iran — absolutely determined to recover Taiwan no matter how great the losses, no matter how long it takes, no matter how many die — then America already knows it simply cannot afford this war, and therefore would certainly not intervene from the outset.

Past US presidents did not start wars lightly precisely because they didn’t need to wait for these consequences to materialise before recognising them. They had the ability to see five moves ahead on the chessboard, while redneck rabble cannot calculate moves at all — driven by fear and vanity, they play one move at a time.

This is the second consequence of Trump recklessly starting a war: exposing to the whole world America’s vulnerability — that it cannot sustain a medium-scale war.

Having seen clearly this vulnerability, the probability of the CCP making the decision to recover Taiwan at all costs, burning all bridges, has increased dramatically — because they now firmly believe this approach can deliver final victory.

Every Taiwanese political commentator, except Professor Ming Chu-cheng, is a Trump worshipper. I believe that even when Five-Star Red Flags and PLA tanks are all over the streets of Taiwan, these people will still be saying on Taiwan’s internet — more tightly controlled than the mainland’s:

“Uncle Trump allowing the PLA to occupy Taiwan is part of a great chess game to destroy the CCP. Taiwanese people simply need to patiently endure hardship and wait."

4. More than half of Americans are stupid

Because Gulf nations and the US military could not cope with Iran’s suicide drones, the US military turned to Ukraine for help. But this wounded Comrade Vladimir Trump’s vanity — too big to fit in the solar system — and so he said:

“The last thing America needs is Ukraine’s help."

Britain had been prepared to deploy its carrier battle group to the Middle East. Vladimir said:

“America has already achieved total victory — what are you British doing showing up now? America doesn’t need it."

Two days later, he begged Britain to send that carrier battle group to help. Can you guess what Britain said?

Beijingers have a dedicated term for someone like Vladimir — and it is the most fitting term possible. That term is “shǎ bī" (stupid c**t).

And this stupid c**t was not sent down by God — he was elected by more than half of Americans, and those people still firmly support him to this day.

The stupidity of Americans is matched only by that of Iranians.

Conclusion

If the CCP has seen these four points, and if Xi Jinping or his successor has the courage to burn the boats and forge ahead — rather than being a mediocre horse reluctant to leave its feedbag — then the fall of Taiwan is almost inevitable.

Unless China implodes due to its internal reasons. I will discuss this topic in the next article.

Iranian missiles struck Qatar’s world’s largest natural gas facility and Saudi Arabia’s largest oil refinery, which will take five to ten years to recover from, with losses in the hundreds of billions. The image of a safe haven painstakingly built by Middle Eastern nations over twenty years was shattered in an instant; Dubai, paradise for the wealthy, looks like a ghost town. The US stock market lost $3 trillion; oil prices soared across Europe and Australia, driving up all manner of costs; Australia’s central bank was forced to raise interest rates, and the economy faces recession after overheating.

In other words, America itself and all its allies have suffered deeply.

So in this world — who came out ahead?

Do you remember just two years ago? It feels like another era. Back then, America’s coalition against the CCP was as tight as an iron barrel; the CCP was like a rat crossing the street internationally; Biden had repeatedly made clear that America would militarily intervene against forced reunification. Back then, the CCP did not know America’s rare earth vulnerability or its other weaknesses. Back then, forced reunification was a pipe dream that couldn’t last much longer.

And now, Taiwan is already in the CCP’s pocket.

As oil prices double, Russia’s war funding surges — an extra $5 billion in fiscal revenue every month.

MEGA — Make Enemy Great Again.

剛剛有西方主流媒體報道，一架美軍F35在攻擊伊朗的行動中受損，飛回了美軍機場緊急降落，飛行員受傷。伊朗宣稱是被自己的放空火力擊中，並放出了一段視頻，顯示一架戰機被鎖定，幾秒鐘後一枚導彈命中戰機，戰機原地爆炸，視頻在爆炸瞬間終止。

我認為，伊朗擊中F35這件事肯定是真的，因為主流媒體都報道了，但伊朗公佈的這段視頻很可能是假的。

首先，F35的特點是隱形和極高精度的光電系統，它絕不會也完全沒有必要伊朗上空肉眼可見的二三百米高度飛行，因為沒有任何事情它不能在好幾千米甚至上萬米的高空做。在幾千米甚至上萬米的高空，肩扛式單兵導彈對它根本沒有威脅，所以它如果被擊中，一定是被伊朗裝備的S300防空導彈或類似的中高空導彈擊中的，對不對？

視頻中顯示，導彈就算沒有直接命中，也是在幾米內爆炸，爆炸的火球完全覆蓋了戰機。S300防空導彈或類似的中高空導彈在如此近距離爆炸，F35一定會被炸成碎片，又怎麼可能成功降落呢？

當然，另一個可能的解釋是觀察者、爆炸火球和F35恰好在一條直線上，所以雖然在視頻上火球完全覆蓋了F35，但彼此之間還是有幾十米的距離：

這就是為什麼視頻在爆炸瞬間戛然而止這一點非常可疑。如果視頻顯示後戰在爆炸機繼續飛行，甚至顯示部分機翼缺失，那麼視頻就完全可信了，就和F35緊急迫降的已知事實互相印證了。

為什麼伊朗偏偏要掐去爆炸後的視頻呢？

唯一的解釋是，爆炸後的視頻顯示，飛機炸成了碎片。就是說，這段視頻不是那架被損傷並迫降的F35的。

中共從美伊戰爭學到四點：

1. 靠常規戰爭手段進行武統，中共必然大敗

伊朗和委內瑞拉都部署了俄國的S300防空導彈和中國的號稱能夠發現隱形飛機的黑科技雷達，結果美以戰機長驅直入，如入無人之境，經過二週的高強度空襲，美以完全掌握了伊朗的制空權，至今尚無一架戰機被伊軍擊落。

俄國最先進的S400防空導彈在烏克蘭屢屢被美國二十年前研製的海馬斯火箭和三十年前研製的陸軍戰術導彈摧毀。相比之下，俄軍曾經一連發射十幾枚最新研製的超高音速導彈，飽和攻擊烏克蘭的四十年前投產的愛國者防空導彈導彈，全部被愛國者擊落。

這說明俄軍的防空能力在美軍面前幾乎是廢鐵一堆。

不錯，剛剛有美軍F35發生戰損並在美軍機場緊急降落的報道。但這並不能說明美軍科技不夠先進。太平洋戰爭後期，美軍專門針對日軍零式飛機設計的地獄貓式戰機對零式構成碾壓式優勢，美軍飛行員經驗越來越豐富，日軍有經驗的飛行員損失殆盡，剛剛學會起飛就投入戰鬥。在1944年6月19日到20日的菲律賓海海戰中，美軍經驗豐富的飛行員駕駛著性能完全碾壓零式的地獄貓，輕鬆地擊落了300多架日機，一天就誕生了十個王牌飛行員。一個飛行員返航後說：“這哪裡是空戰，這完全是在射火雞！” 於是這次戰役被稱為“馬裡亞納射火雞”。但就是這樣的完全碾壓，美軍在此役中仍然被擊落近三十架戰機。相比之下，在這場對伊朗的全面戰爭中，美軍出動幾千架次，打擊了5000到7000個目標，只有一架戰機戰損，但仍然飛回機場降落，無一名飛行員戰死，這恰恰說明了美軍科技的碾壓性優勢。

世界上公認，中國軍事專家自己也承認，中國雷達技術比俄國落後十年。就是說，如果有一天美軍對中共軍發起大規模恐襲，共軍的防空係統會比俄製廢鐵更加廢鐵。如果共軍對台灣發起常規進攻或封鎖，就是靠戰機、戰艦、導彈，美軍和使用美軍最新武器的台軍一定會打得共軍滿地找牙。

實際上，在2021年10月發表的《預言台海之戰全過程》中，我不得不生硬地虛構出俄國把極其先進的S600導彈援助共軍，導致台灣喪失自衛能力，不得不向美國求助，因為沒有這個虛構，台軍自己就可以打得共軍滿地找牙，美軍就沒必要參戰，但在這個預言故事裡我想讓美軍參戰，以便告訴讀者美軍參戰後戰爭將如何演變。

2. 美軍反無人機的能力嚴重不足

之所以俄軍無法摧毀烏克蘭的愛國者，是因為烏克蘭早已經有了全套的對付伊朗見證者無人機的辦法，無人機無法威脅到愛國者，於是愛國者可以全力以赴對付俄國的高端的彈道和巡航導彈。

相比之下，美軍在中東部署的八套薩德高空反導系統已經被伊朗擊毀或損壞了四套，因為薩德是用來對付高空高速的彈道導彈的，無法對付低空低速的伊朗見證者無人機，而美軍對付這種無人機的能力遠遠不如烏克蘭。

而中國的科研能力、電子能力、人工智能水平比伊朗強百倍，無人機技術獨步天下，大疆壟斷世界商用無人機市場，而且中國的加工製造規模獨步天下。他們完全可以開發出比伊朗見證者無人機先進百倍的無人機，比如不靠遠程遙控，先靠預設GPS接近戰區，然後通過光電傳感器自行辨識目標。武統時，幾千台這樣的智能無人機飛過海峽，即使台灣的各種導彈百分之百命中，也不過擊落其中的一半。而中國可以每天發出幾千台。於是，台灣的防空導彈耗盡，各種對空對海雷達被毀，台灣的魚叉、雄風反艦導彈成了睜眼瞎。

同樣的無人機蜂群可以重創日本的進攻能力、美軍在日本的軍事基地、海上的航母戰鬥群。

四年前，烏戰開始，美軍就知道了無人機完全改寫了戰場規則，然而，直到今天，他們仍然無法阻止具有戰略意義的、三四億美元一套的、生產週期長達四五年的薩德被無人機成批摧毀。

而台灣的情況被美國要糟糕十倍。美軍畢竟在深度跟蹤烏戰，美軍武器在實戰中面對俄國無人機，美軍各級情報部門和烏軍緊密聯繫，而台灣則與實戰無緣。中共在台灣的第五總隊——國民党毫無遮掩的賣台，步步接受中共的指令，很大比例的台灣人分不清敵我，這就是為什麼國民党毫無遮掩地賣台卻仍然能當選。所以，台灣政治長期處於半癱瘓狀態，無法像美國、烏克蘭那樣靈活反應。所以，台灣在二三年內迅速找到對付中共無人機蜂群的技術並大規模部署的可能性是零。

此時此刻，中共一定正在史無前例地加大對自殺式無人機的投入。

這就是川普這次不顧出門證聯席會議主席、國家情報委員會的反對輕啟戰端的後果之一：將美軍、台軍最大的軟肋——缺乏反無人機能力昭示天下，而中國恰恰是世界上的無人機之王！

3. 世界戰爭史上的新現象：靠挨打就能贏得勝利

川普2025年1月就職時，美國國債是36.2萬億美元。

今天，美國國債已經突破了39萬億美元。

而伊朗對周圍國家的攻擊正在升級，還剛剛第一次發射了射程4000公里的洲際導彈，川普焦頭爛額，無計可施。

所以，在伊朗步步升級反擊烈度，霍爾姆斯海峽完全被切斷的時候，川普卻開始談論撤軍了。

而中國國土面積是伊朗的六倍，軍隊人數是伊朗的四倍，軍事實力是伊朗的20到30倍（Gemini的統計）。

就算美軍能以零傷亡為代價摧毀共軍所有的裝備，到美軍完全掌握了台灣海峽和中國沿海省份的製空權，而且完全壓制了共軍的導彈和無人機能力時，美國的國債肯定已經突破了50甚至60萬億。

何況美軍的損失會比伊戰時大得多。

不用等到國債突破50萬億，美國就破產了。

不用等到美國破產，美國老百姓就已經把決定在台海介入中共武統的政府趕下台了。

在中國發起武統時，美國情報部門早已掌握了中共的戰爭決心和準備。如果中共僅僅是想試一下，台灣和美國嚇壞了，武統輕易成功，就佔了個大便宜；如果對方玩命，那就退縮，那麼美國反而要擺出堅決武裝干預的架勢，期望通過一場快速的壓倒性勝利來挫敗中共的意圖。

然而，如果美國發現中共是像現在的伊朗一樣，抱定了不論家底損失多大，持續多久，死多少人，都一定要收回台灣的決心，那麼美國就已經知道，自己完完全全無法負擔這場戰爭，所以美國肯定從開始就不會介入。

過去的美國總統們不輕啟戰端，就是因為他們不用等到這些後果發生了才發覺。他們有能力看到五步之後的棋盤，而紅脖子盲流不會算棋，他們被恐懼、虛榮驅使著，走一步看一步。

這就是川普輕啟戰端的後果之二：將美國無法負擔一場中等規模戰爭的軟肋昭示天下。

因為看清了美國的這個軟肋，中共作出不計一切代價魚死網破也要收回台灣的決定的幾率大幅度增加，因為他們現在堅信這樣能贏得最後勝利。

台灣所有政評人，除明居正教授外，都是川粉。我相信，等台灣街頭到處是五星紅旗和共軍坦克時，這些人還會在比大陸管控得還嚴格的台灣網絡上信誓旦旦：

“川爺聽任共軍佔領台灣是在下一盤滅共的大棋，台灣人只需要耐心吃苦，耐心等待。”

4. 美國有一大半人是愚蠢的

因為海灣國家和美軍無法應付伊朗的自殺無人機，美軍向烏軍求援，但這損害了弗拉基米爾•川普同志的太陽系裝不下的虛榮心，於是他說：

“這個世界上美國最不需要的就是烏克蘭的幫助。”

本來，英國準備調航母編隊去中東，弗拉基米爾說：

“美國已經完勝了，這時你們英國來湊熱鬧？美國不需要。”

二天後，他又求英國派這隻航母編隊來幫忙。你猜猜英國說什麼？

北京人給弗拉基米爾這種人有一個專用詞，而且這個詞是最適合的，這個詞就是“傻逼”。

而這個傻逼不是上帝硬派下來的，他是一大半美國人選上來的，到現在那些人都還堅定地支持他。

美國人之蠢，只有伊朗人可比。

總結

如果中共看到到了本文這四點，如果習近平或他的繼任者有破釜沉舟的勇氣，而不是駑馬戀棧豆，那麼台灣的淪陷幾乎已成定局。

除非中共因為內因內爆。我會在下一篇文章中討論這個問題。

伊朗导弹击中卡塔尔全球最大天然气基地和沙特最大的煉油設施，需要五到十年才能恢復，損失以百億計。中東國家用了二十年努力打造的避險避稅天堂的形象瞬間失去，富人天堂迪拜形如鬼城。美國股市損失3萬億美元，歐洲、澳洲油價飛漲，帶動各種費用飛漲，澳洲央行不得不加息，經濟從過熱面臨衰退。

就是說，美國自己和它的盟友全部深受其害。

那麼，這個世界上，誰佔便宜了？

還記得僅僅二年前嗎？恍如隔世呀！那時美國針對中共的聯盟如鐵桶般嚴密，中共在國際上如過街老鼠，拜登多次明確表示美國會軍事干預武統。那時，中共不知道美國的稀土軟肋和其他的軟肋。那時，武統是再也做不了多久的黃粱夢。

而現在，台灣已經是中共的囊中之物。

隨著油價翻翻，俄國的戰爭經費陡增，每個月財政收入多出50億美元！

MEGA——Make Enemy Great Again.

On January 14, 2026, the day after the theocratic regime massacred protesters on a large scale, in my piece 言哈梅內伊的歸宿：GBU-57, I predicted that Khamenei would be killed by a bomb.

On March 2, in My Prophecy Fulfilled: The Fall Of Khamenei & The Future of the Iranian Regime, I was the first person in the world to point out that a moderation of the current Iranian regime is America’s most desired outcome. A few days later, similar reports about American intentions began to appear.

I also pointed out that the prospect of Iran refusing to yield would be a nightmare for America and the world. Iran’s selection of Khamenei’s son as the new leader signals Iran’s determination to fight to the end. Iran has also begun mining the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices have surged sharply, diesel in Australia is close to running out, and industries dependent on it — such as livestock — face ruin.

Trump may have led America and the world into a pit so large and deep that the Afghan quagmire will look trivial by comparison.

Imagine the following scenario.

You and your wife are shopping at a mall when a woman accidentally steps on your wife’s foot. The woman smiles apologetically and rushes to say sorry, but your wife loses control, erupts in a torrent of abuse, grabs the woman by the hair and starts punching her. At that moment, you’d be horrified and pull your wife back:

“Are you crazy? What are you doing?!"

You’ve separated them and are apologising to the woman, when her husband charges out of a nearby shop and punches your wife to the ground, straddles her and beats her bloody. Would you stand by and say to your wife: “Serves you right for acting crazy"?

Of course not. In that moment, your frustration at your wife’s behaviour vanishes — because it was only a surface-level emotion — and what awakens is the deep love of years of marriage. You’d throw yourself at that man like a madman.

One of the handful of genuinely perceptive Chinese political commentators, Lao Zhou Hengmei, recently made a programme in which he used the fact that 95% or even 99% of Chinese people support the CCP to infer that the vast majority of Iranians support the theocratic regime. I think that since the Iranian government has managed the economy far worse than the CCP and treated its people far more brutally, the proportion of Iranians who support the regime should be smaller than the proportion of Chinese who support the CCP — but saying it’s around half seems reasonable.

Among the opposition, many people are angry simply because of runaway inflation, but don’t necessarily oppose the Islamic fundamentalist system at a fundamental level. Once America reduces their homeland to rubble — especially as civilian casualties mount rapidly (Iran will follow Hamas’s playbook and hide weapons in residential areas), and friends and family are killed — the anti-government sentiment of these people may quickly be replaced by national pride and solidarity, rallying them around the government. The tiny minority who truly despise the regime and would rather see their country razed to the ground than live under theocratic rule will no longer dare to speak up.

There are many historical examples of foreign invasion causing anti-government citizens to swing behind their government:

• In the early 19th century, Russia’s serf system left the peasantry in misery, full of grievances against Tsar Alexander I, with uprisings occurring regularly. When Napoleon invaded Russia, the serfs who had previously hated the government did not see the French as liberators — instead they spontaneously formed guerrilla units and cooperated with government forces in a scorched-earth campaign.
• In 1982, Argentina was under the military junta of General Galtieri — the economy had collapsed, inflation was extreme, and the people were tired of dictatorship, with protests constant. To deflect domestic tensions, the junta decided to seize the British Falkland Islands. When Britain dispatched a task force to fight back, the very crowds that had been protesting the government flooded the squares, chanting in support of the nation.
• In 1980, the Iranian Islamic Revolution had just concluded, the country was in extreme turmoil, and many people opposed the newly established theocracy. Saddam saw this as an opportunity to attack — but Iraq’s invasion actually consolidated Khomeini’s regime, with many secular Iranians and military officers who had been lukewarm about theocratic rule rallying behind the government.

In my previous article I said Iran’s theocratic regime is as stubbornly foolish as aliens. Once the majority of Iranians unite in solidarity behind their government, even if America bombs Iran into rubble, they will only fight more resolutely.

Because I don’t know the current mindset of the Iranian people, I can’t be certain whether they will rally behind the government or whether the government will fight to the end. But judging by Iran’s choice to elect the son of the slain leader and its mining of the Strait of Hormuz, it is at least a non-trivial possibility — wouldn’t you agree?

Comrade Vladimir Trump has already become Putin’s greatest saviour. He is also the CCP’s greatest saviour. And now, he may become the greatest saviour of Iran’s theocratic regime.

This is why I don’t call Comrade Trump’s camp MAGA — I call them MEGA: Make Enemies Great Again.

Israel shares a land border with Gaza. Tanks can penetrate the heart of Gaza within hours, and drones have hovered over it year-round. Even so, the Israeli military not only bombed Gaza repeatedly for months, but also swept through it with ground forces like a comb, time and again, before finally largely subduing Hamas.

Iran’s territory is 4,500 times the size of Gaza, and its population is 41 times larger. Iranians don’t need to be as alien-like in their stubbornness as the regime’s leadership — they only need to be as stubborn as Hamas, and America would have to mobilise for total war, launching a ground invasion with hundreds of thousands or even millions of troops to fully subdue the Iranian people. The national debt would increase by $10 trillion within a year. America currently pays more in debt interest than it spends on defence; at that point, interest payments would be 1.5 times what they are now, defence spending 1.5 times what it is now, and fiscal bankruptcy would be nearly inevitable. Once America is bogged down in an Iranian quagmire — with its arsenal depleted and its treasury empty — the CCP launching a military unification campaign and occupying Taiwan becomes a certainty.

The U.S. military has now found itself in a difficult dilemma:

• If they limit their airstrikes to Iranian military facilities, they will be fundamentally unable to eliminate the missiles and drones being launched at the Gulf States, as these are hidden deep within underground “Great Walls." Iran can rapidly produce short-range missiles—and drones in particular—allowing them to sustain attacks on the Gulf States and the Strait of Hormuz indefinitely. In the end, it is the United States that will be forced to surrender, as the U.S. and its allies cannot withstand skyrocketing oil prices.

• To truly “hurt" Iran, the U.S. would have to target its infrastructure—such as oil fields, pipelines, ports, and power plants—but doing so would only accelerate the process of unifying the Iranian people around their government.

Either way, the United States loses.

Why didn’t previous American presidents strike Iran? Because they were all civilised people who wore shoes. They didn’t act unilaterally — they relied on think tanks and experts, who would invariably tell the President that all-out war could strengthen the theocratic regime, that the war could drag on indefinitely, that the Strait of Hormuz could be closed, causing catastrophic damage to the global economy.

But in today’s America, only one person makes decisions — Comrade Trump. Before the war began, General Cain, the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff whom he himself appointed, told him that the United States had no viable military option against Iran. The National Intelligence Council conducted a special study and then told him that it would be very difficult to achieve regime change. But he didn’t listen to any of it, because he doesn’t think rationally – his vanity and desire for revenge drive his actions..

Since Comrade Vladimir Trump took office:

• He has been played by Putin like a toy in the palm of his hand, while Russia steadily tightens its grip in Ukraine;
• He is now planning to lift sanctions on Russian oil and gas, using energy scarcity as a pretext;
• Because China has a stranglehold on America’s rare earth supply chain, he has made concession after concession to the CCP, permitting the sale of critical AI chips to China;
• America’s former European allies are rushing to visit Beijing — the CCP has become the darling of Canada and Europe alike.
• Now he may be pushing lots of Iranians toward the regime.

MEGA — Make Enemies Great Again. Perfectly apt, isn’t it?

2026年1月14日，神棍政權大規模殺害示威群眾後的第二天，在《預言哈梅內伊的歸宿：GBU-57》中，我預言了哈梅內伊被炸死的結局。

3月2日，在《我的斬首預言應驗！分析戰爭走向》中，我在全世界第一個指出，伊朗現政權溫和化是美國最希望的結局。幾天後，類似的關於美國意圖的報道相繼出現。

在同一篇文章中，我還指出，伊朗堅持不讓步的前景將是美國和世界的噩夢。這個噩夢正在成為現實。伊朗選舉哈梅內伊的兒子做新領袖，表明了伊朗戰鬥到底的決心。伊朗還開始在霍爾木茲海峽布雷。油價大漲，澳洲煤油接近斷供，畜牧業等依賴煤油的產業面臨毀滅。

川普可能將美國和世界帶進了如此大而深的坑，阿富汗那個大坑和這個相比將相形見絀。

你想象下面的場景。

你和你太太逛商場時，一個女人不小心踩了你太太的腳。前者滿臉堆笑，忙不迭地道歉，但你太太情緒失控，破口大罵，扯住她頭髮揮拳就打。此時，你一定會大驚失色，拉住你太太，

“你瘋了嗎？你幹嘛呀！？”

你拉開了太太，正在向那個女人道歉，她的老公從商店裡衝出來，一拳將你太太打倒，騎在她身上暴揍，打得她滿臉血。這時，你會不會袖手旁觀，對你太太說：“誰讓你發瘋？看，現世報！”

肯定不會。這時，你對你太太撒潑的不滿就消失了，因為它只是你表層意識中的感情，而被喚醒了的是你深層意識中的多年的夫妻恩愛。你會發瘋一樣地衝上去和那個男人拼命。

華人政評人中寥寥的二個半明白人之一的老周橫眉最近做了一期節目，他用中國人中95%甚至99%的人都支持中共的事實，推測伊朗人中絕大多數是支持神棍政權的。我認為，伊朗政府搞經濟搞得比中共差得多，對老百姓比中共殘忍得多，所以伊朗人中支持神棍政權的人的比例應該比支持中共的中國人小，但說有一半應該是不過分的。

在反對者中，很多人僅僅是因為惡性通貨膨脹而憤怒，但不一定從根本上反對伊斯蘭原教旨主義體制。一旦美國把他們的祖國毀成一片廢墟，尤其是隨著平民傷亡的快速上升（伊朗會效仿哈馬斯，將軍隊武器藏在居民區內），自己的朋友親人慘死，這些人的反政府情緒可能迅速被民族自豪感和認同感所替代，團結在政府周圍。那些極少數的真正痛恨這個體制、寧願祖國被夷為平地也要打倒神棍政權的伊朗人將不敢再發聲。

這種外敵入侵導致反政府的百姓轉而支持政府的案例在歷史上很多：

• 19世紀初，俄國的農奴制度讓廣大農民生活在水深火熱之中，對沙皇亞歷山大一世的統治充滿怨言，起義時有發生。當拿破崙率領入侵俄國時，原本痛恨政府的俄國農奴並未將法軍視為解放者，反而自發組織游擊隊，配合政府軍實施焦土政策。

• 1982年，阿根廷由加爾鐵里將軍的軍政府統治，經濟崩潰，通脹極其嚴重，人民對獨裁感到厭倦，抗議活動不斷。為了轉移國內矛盾，軍政府決定進攻英屬福克蘭群島。當英國派遣特遣艦隊反擊時，原本抗議政府的阿根廷群眾湧入廣場，高喊支持國家的口號。

• 1980年，伊朗伊斯蘭革命剛結束，國內極度混亂，許多人反對新建立的神權政權。薩達姆認為這是進攻的好機會，結果，伊拉克的入侵反而鞏固了霍梅尼政權，許多原本對神權政治不感冒的世俗派伊朗人和軍官團結在政府周圍。

在上一篇文章中我說伊朗的神棍政權愚蠢倔強得像外星人。一旦多數伊朗人眾志成城團結在政府周圍，那麼即使美國將伊朗炸成一片廢墟，他們也只可能更加堅決地戰鬥。

因為我不知道伊朗人民現在的心態，我不能肯定他們會不會團結在政府周圍，政府會不會戰鬥到底，但從伊朗推舉被炸死的老狗的兒子當領袖和在霍爾姆斯海峽布雷的舉措來說，這至少是一個不太小的可能性，對不對？

弗拉基米爾·川普同志已經是普京最大的救星，他也是中共最大的救星，現在，他可能是伊朗神棍政權最大的救星。

這就是為什麼我不叫川普同志的陣營MAGA，我叫他們MEGA，Make Enemy Great Again（讓敵人再次偉大）。

以色列和加沙領土相連，坦克幾個小時就能突入加沙心臟，無人機常年盤旋於加沙上空，就這樣，以軍不僅反復轟炸了幾個月，地面部隊像梳子一樣在加沙反復梳理了好多次，才基本打服了哈馬斯。

伊朗的國土面積是加沙的4500倍，人口是加沙的41倍，伊朗人都不需要像外星人一般倔強，只要他們像哈馬斯一樣倔強，美國就必須全民戰爭動員，出動幾十萬甚至上百萬的軍隊地面入侵，才能徹底打服伊朗人，美國的國債會在一年內增加10萬億。現在美國為國債支付的利息就超過軍費，屆時美國的利息支出是現在的1.5倍，軍費支出是現在的1.5倍，財政破產幾乎無法避免。一旦美國深陷伊朗的泥潭，彈藥庫見底，錢庫見底，中共發起武統並佔領台灣就是定數。

現在美軍已經陷入了一個兩難的境地：

• 如果只空襲攻擊伊朗的軍事設施，根本無法消滅伊朗對海灣國家發射的導彈和無人機，因為他們都藏在深深的地下長城裡。伊朗可以快速生產那些短程導彈尤其是無人機，對海灣國家和霍爾姆斯海峽的襲擊可以長期進行下去，最後投降的一定是美國，因為美國極其盟友們無法忍受油價的飛漲。
• 要想打疼伊朗，就必須攻擊它的基礎設施，比如油田、輸油管、港口、發電廠， 但這就會加速將伊朗人團結到政府周圍。

橫豎美國都會輸。

為什麼以往的美國總統不打伊朗？因為他們都是穿鞋的體面人，他們不獨斷專行，依賴智庫和專家，後者一定會告訴總統，全面戰爭有可能會強化神棍政權，戰爭可能會拖很久，霍爾姆斯海峽可能被關閉，對全球經濟造成毀滅性的打擊。

但現在的美國，只有一個人做決定，那就是弗拉基米爾·川普同志。在開戰前，他自己任命的參謀長聯席會議主席凱恩將軍告訴他，美國沒有可行的對伊朗動武的選項，國家情報委員會專門進行了研究，然後告訴弗拉基米爾，你很難達到更換政權的目的。但他一條都沒有聽，因為他是不用理智思考的，他的虛榮心和報復慾望驅使他的行動。

自從弗拉基米爾·川普同志上台，

• 他被普京玩在掌股之間，俄國在烏克蘭步步緊逼，狀態良好；
• 他又以石油緊缺為藉口打算取消對俄國油氣的制裁；
• 因為中國掐住了美國稀土的命門，他處處遷就中共，允許關鍵AI芯片出售中國；
• 美國昔日的歐洲盟友競相訪華，中共現在成了加拿大、歐洲眼中的香餑餑。
• 現在，他可能正在將很多伊朗人推向神棍政權。

MEGA，Make Enemy Great Again。太貼切了，是不是？

(The Chinese version of this article was published on 2 Mar 2026)

On January 14, 2026—the day after the clerical regime’s mass slaughter of protesters—I predicted in my article “預言哈梅內伊的歸宿：GBU-57 (The ending of Khamenei: GBU-57)" that Khamenei would be killed by a bomb, and I explained why. That has now come to pass.

As early as October 2024, in “伊朗如何跳進以色列用一年挖的坑 (How Iran fell into the trap which Isreal spent a year to lay)" I wrote:

After October 7, Israel learned a painful lesson. They realized that if they continued to play by the rules of proxy warfare—striking only the pawns and not Iran—Israel could never avoid the next massacre… Once Iran is subdued, its three proxies will naturally become harmless… Israel has decided to take action against Iran.

Iran’s wicked clerical regime has lost support from China and Russia and no longer dares to provoke trouble abroad, losing its ability to divert domestic contradictions outward. Its collapse is just around the corner… The Middle East is about to quiet down.

It seems this, too, is nearing fulfillment.

Before getting to the main point, an interesting interlude: I woke up this morning and opened the ABC app to hear the news that Khamenei had been killed. Simultaneously, I saw a “MAGA fan" commenting on my previous prophecy, baselessly claiming my prediction was inaccurate. I replied: “The moment you saw the news of Khamenei’s decapitation, you said to yourself: ‘Crap! The person who actually understands things got it right again!’ So you rushed to this post to run damage control. Am I right? Is the MAGA camp really that afraid of my prophecies?"

Below, I analyze how long this war will last and the future of the Iranian regime.

How Long Will the War Last?

Iran is a large country with vast territory, but it is also governed by extreme stupidity and stubbornness. There is an old saying: “He won’t turn back until he hits the brick wall." The Iranians? They won’t turn back even if they hit the wall—in fact, they won’t turn back even if you beat them to death.

Look at the primary threads of this situation:

1. Iran has no foreign aid. Russia is mired in the Ukrainian swamp and can barely save itself. China has always talked a big game about “sacrificing for friends," but runs away the moment it faces a real tough guy. A few months ago, when Iran was pummeled by the U.S. and Israel—losing its president, top generals, and nuclear scientists—China and Russia didn’t dare utter a peep.
2. The Middle East seeks stability. Other Arab nations know Israel has no intention of bullying them. They realize that peaceful coexistence with the U.S. and Israel leads to prosperity. Iran is now the only bully left in the Middle East, and everyone is looking at it with disdain.
3. Israel alone is enough to beat Iran senseless. Behind Israel stands the United States—the world’s undisputed number one economic and military power.

With these three realities, any leader with an IQ over 70 would know that to survive, they must normalize relations with the U.S. and Israel immediately. But Khamenei would rather be blown to bits than stop Iran from being the rabid dog plaguing the world. This level of stupidity and stubbornness is almost non-human.

During the last round of hostilities, Iran retreated after a minor retaliation because regime change wasn’t the goal. The “Old Thief" (Khamenei) didn’t care how many others were killed as long as he kept his throne. But this time, the U.S. and Israel have explicitly stated they want regime change. Iran is facing death regardless, so it may struggle more desperately this time.

However, this will not become a multi-year war of attrition as “experts" in mainstream media suggest. Why?

• First, Iran is not Hamas. Hamas is an extremist terrorist organization. Because of this, Muslims worldwide donate to it. It doesn’t need hardware like ports, airports, or power plants; it only needs “cannon fodder"—Palestinians willing to die. As long as there is money, there is an inexhaustible supply of such people. Thus, Hamas is nearly impossible to destroy completely. Iran, however, lacks that universal appeal. No one is donating to “the state of Iran." Iran is a country; without ports, oil terminals, and factories, it collapses. Without barracks and tanks, the people will overthrow it. These facilities can be destroyed at any time by the U.S. and Israel, who hold total air superiority. In fact, it would only take 10 to 20 bombs to level the Kharg Island oil terminal, halting exports and triggering a total collapse. The U.S. and Israel haven’t done this yet only to avoid a massive humanitarian crisis for innocent civilians.
• Second, the infiltration of Iran’s government and military is unprecedented. Iran once formed an elite counter-intelligence unit to root out Israeli moles; it turned out the entire unit, including the head, were Israeli informants. There is no one in the Iranian hierarchy that Israel cannot eliminate. If you are still alive, it’s only because Israel doesn’t want you dead yet. This will become increasingly obvious as Iran’s power wanes.

---

The Fate of the Iranian Regime

There are three possible outcomes:

1. Overthrown by the People (40% Probability) Experts doubt this because they think the Revolutionary Guard is too powerful. They believe the regime will simply use machine guns again, as they did during the last protests. But they forget the “Remote Control Bomb" effect. Khamenei, the only one with the “authority" to order the massacre of 20,000 people, is dead. Will the next leader have that same grip or courage? Furthermore, if the U.S. and Israel aren’t already coordinating with Iranian protesters, I’d be surprised. Once the air strikes take out the hardliners, the military will be leaderless. A “leader" who was only chosen because he was in the right place at the right time might hesitate to order a massacre while looking up at a Reaper drone.

2. Surrender to Survive (50% Probability) The current power holders surrender, give up nuclear ambitions, stop trying to destroy Israel, and cut off Hamas and Hezbollah. They become a “harmless" state like the Taliban’s Afghanistan. This is the outcome the U.S. and Israel desire most.

3. The Regime Withstands the One-Month Strike (10% Probability) U.S. Command previously stated ammunition reserves might only last two weeks. If the clerical regime sacrifices wave after wave of leaders and refuses to budge, the U.S. might run low on munitions while facing domestic MAGA pressure and Arab ally unrest. Trump might then pull a “TACO" (Total Abandonment of Current Objectives), claim victory, and go home. If Iran survives this, the global impact would be deafening. If the U.S. exhausts itself and can’t even subdue a tattered Iran, it would prove utterly powerless against Russia or China. This would embolden Russia to annex Ukraine and the Baltics, and China to launch a forceful unification with Taiwan.

Launching a regime-change war with only two weeks of ammo is a reckless gamble that only Comrade Vladimir Trump—who thinks with his ego and his groin—would take. No previous president would have placed the world at such high risk.

English version

2026年1月14日，神棍政權大規模殺害示威群眾後的第二天，在《預言哈梅內伊的歸宿：GBU-57》中，我預言了哈梅內伊被炸死的結局，並解釋了原因。應驗。

早在2024年10月，在《伊朗如何跳進以色列用一年挖的坑》中，我說：

10月7日後，以色列痛定思痛，明白了如果仍然遵守代理人戰爭法則，只打馬仔，不打伊朗，以色列就無法避免下一次大屠殺…打服了伊朗，它的三個馬仔自然就無害了…以色列決定對伊朗動手。… 伊朗的作惡多端的邪惡的神棍政權既失去了來自中俄的支持，又不敢再在外面挑事，失去了將國內矛盾轉向國外的能力，它的崩潰就在不遠的前面。… 中東要消停了。

看來也快應驗了。

在說正事之前，先說一個有趣的插曲。今早醒來，照例打開ABC app聽新聞，哈梅內伊被炸死了，同時看到一個川粉在我上面那條預言下留言，毫無依據地說我的預言不准。我回答：

你一看到哈梅內伊被斬首的新聞，心裡說：“壞了！又給明白人說中了！”。於是趕緊跑到這條預言下來止損。對不對？

你們MEGA陣營這麼害怕我的預言嗎？

下面，我分析一下這場戰爭會持續多久，還有伊朗政權的未來。

戰爭會打多久

伊朗是個大國，地域遼闊，又極其愚蠢固執，別人是“不撞南墻不回頭”，伊朗人是“不要說撞了南墻不回頭，就是活活打死我也不回頭”。

你就看看事情的主脈：

1。伊朗現在沒有外援，俄國深陷烏戰泥潭自身難保，中國從來都是嘴上兩肋插刀，遇到狠主兒撒丫子就跑。幾個月前伊朗被美伊痛打一頓，總統、軍方將領、核科學家被幹掉一大批，中俄連個屁都沒敢放。

2。中東人心思定，其他阿拉伯國家都知道以色列沒有霸凌自己的意圖，只要和美以和平相處，一定繁榮昌盛，中東唯一的霸凌現在就剩下了伊朗，大家都對它側目而視。

3。光是以色列就足夠打得伊朗滿地找牙，以色列後面還站著國力、軍力世界第一、沒有第二的美國。

有這三條主脈，隨便找個智商70的人來做伊朗的領袖，都知道要想活命，必須趕緊和美以關係正常化。

但霍梅尼寧可自己被炸碎，也要伊朗繼續當那條禍害世界的惡狗。

這個愚蠢和固執，簡直不是地球人類。

上次伊朗被痛毆後稍加報復立即收手，因為上次美以的目的不是政權更迭。老賊只要自己能坐江山，其他人炸死多少不關心。

但這次美以明說了要更換政權，伊朗不垂死掙扎也是死。所以這次很可能會比上次打得長。

但絕不會像那些主流媒體上的專家所說的，變成一場持續幾年的持久戰。

為什麼？

第一，伊朗不是哈馬斯。

哈馬斯是一個極端恐怖主義組織。憑著這一點，全世界有很多穆斯林給它捐款。它不需要任何硬件，比如港口、機場、鐵路、橋樑、鑽井平台、輸油管、油庫、煉油廠、工廠、發電廠、通訊網絡、醫院、軍營、戰艦、戰機、坦克、運輸車輛、彈藥庫，兵工廠，等等等等，它只需要願意去當炮灰的巴勒斯坦人。只要出錢，這樣的巴勒斯坦人取之不盡用之不竭。所以哈馬斯是個無法徹底摧毀的組織。

而伊朗沒有極端恐怖組織對穆斯林的吸引力，沒人會為伊朗捐款。伊朗是個國家，沒有港口、機場、鐵路、橋樑、鑽井平台、輸油管、油庫、煉油廠、工廠、發電廠、通訊網絡，它就會崩潰；沒有軍營、戰艦、戰機、坦克、運輸車輛、彈藥庫，兵工廠，人民就可以推翻它。而這些硬件設施，在美以完全掌握製空權的情況下，隨時都能被摧毀。其實都不需要摧毀全部上述硬件，只要一二十枚炸彈，伊朗的哈尔克岛石油终端就會被徹底摧毀，伊朗對外國的石油出口就會戛然而止，伊朗就會崩潰。伊朗這樣的軟肋比比皆是。之所以美以還沒有這樣做，是因為代價是伊朗無辜百姓的大規模人道危機。

但設想，如果戰爭真的打了五年，那就說明大部分伊朗人民支持這場戰爭了，對不對？那時美以深陷泥潭，經濟崩潰，就不會再顧忌敵對的伊朗人的福祉了。那時只要一二十枚炸彈，伊朗就崩潰了。

第二，以色列對伊朗各級政府和軍隊的滲透簡直是空前絕後。伊朗曾經組織了一個精英反間諜小組，專門來清除關鍵機密部門裡的以色列線人，這個小組上至組長全部是以色列線人。伊朗政府、軍隊從上到下，沒有一個人是以色列無法幹掉的。你現在還活著，只能說明以色列暫時不想你死。以前以色列非常克制，所以這一點並不明顯，以後隨著伊朗的軍力迅速下降，美以越來越沒有顧忌，這一點會越來越明顯。

一個國家的所有人的脖子上都掛著一枚無法拆除的遙控炸彈，按鈕在敵國手中，這個國家能和敵國打一場持久戰，耗盡敵國的人力物力？

這場戰爭持續的時間，就是宇宙第一愚蠢固執的伊朗人明白這個遙控炸彈效應所需要的時間。

我認為，最短戰爭甚至可能在二三周內結束，如果是那樣，就說明伊朗剩下的領導層早已經明白了遙控炸彈效應，明白了自己在國際上是過街老鼠，在國內是孤家寡人，還是趕緊求和為妙。戰爭最長不會超過六個月，最可能是一二個月內結束。

伊朗政權的下場

伊朗政權有三種可能的下場：

第一：被老百姓推翻：40%可能性

西方主流媒體上的專家普遍不看好這一可能性，因為他們只會用僵化的思想來推測未來。

在他們眼裡，伊朗革命衛隊的勢力極其龐大，深度滲透政治和經濟領域，霍梅尼的被殺和美以的空襲不會動搖其根基，上次大規模示威被政府出動重機槍掃射給鎮壓下去了，這次他們還會這樣做。

但專家們沒有考慮到遙控炸彈效應。

上次美以空襲伊朗，大大削弱了伊朗的核能力，但事後美以發現，削弱的程度遠遠沒有期待的那麼大，伊朗已經開始重建被摧毀的核設施。美以想再次打擊伊朗，但川普信誓旦旦第一次打擊已經完全摧毀了伊朗的核設施，所以美國啞巴吃黃連，有苦說不出，沒有藉口發動第二次打擊。這就是領導人ego天大帶來的結果。但神棍政權的運氣太差，國內爆發大規模示威，霍梅尼下令機器掃射，二萬人被殺，給了美國再次以十倍規模發起打擊，徹底摧毀神棍政權的藉口。

現在，能凝聚這個世人痛恨的機構、有明知必死也要下令機槍掃射的勇氣的霍梅尼死了，下一個領導還會有這個凝聚力，這個膽量嗎？

另一方面，如果美以在籌備、進行這場摧毀政權的軍事打擊的同時，沒有以任何方式去鼓勵、組織、協調伊朗的示威群眾，我會吃驚的。待空襲結束後，伊朗大多數死硬領導層都被幹掉了，軍隊群龍無首，各級、各地之間通訊中斷，在這種情況下，可能爆發更大、更暴力的示威甚至起義。那時，你肯定那個因為上廁所而被其他人選舉為領導人的可憐蟲會摸著脖子上的遙控炸彈，看著天上的死神無人機，下令機槍掃射嗎？就是他是個瘋子，他下令了，你肯定下面的軍官會執行嗎？不要用僵死的過去來預測未來，那時人心浮動，中下級軍官就不想作出將來讓自己落到卡扎菲下場的事情了。

這個結局的不確定性大，神棍政權倒台後伊朗沒有一個可以立即取代的黨派團體，很可能會陷入群龍無首的狀態，成為基地組織、伊斯蘭國的發展土壤。在國外伊朗人中比較受歡迎的巴列維國王的兒子在伊朗國內沒有任何根基，能力平平，不懂國內的思維方法和政治，美以不會扶植他上台，否則一定無法服眾，爆發衝突內亂。

第二：掌權者屈服，以換取政權不倒：50%可能性

伊朗的現在的當權者向美以屈服，徹底放棄擁核的企圖，徹底放棄毀滅以色列的目的，徹底放棄資助國外恐怖組織比如哈馬斯、真主黨、也門胡塞族武裝，成為一個阿富汗塔利班那樣的對世界無害的國家。這是美以最希望的結局，也是最大的可能性。

第三：神棍政權挺過一個月的打擊：10%可能性

戰前美軍司令部就說，美軍的彈藥儲備只夠維持二週的戰爭。如果伊朗神棍政權前赴後繼，一輪領導被幹掉，下一輪繼續革命，寸步不讓，一個月後，美國彈藥耗盡，阿拉伯盟友因為動亂對美國施加越來越大的壓力，國內MEGA陣營對戰爭的反對聲也日益高漲，川普再次TACO，嘴硬說已經達到全部目的得勝班師的可能性不小。

如果伊朗神棍政權寸步不讓，挺過這場戰爭，在全世界的影響將會振聾發聵。美國使出全部力量，一直打到筋疲力盡彈藥用完，卻連千瘡百孔的伊朗都打不服，那麼它對俄國這樣的大國、尤其是中國這樣的超級大國就完全無能為力了，對不對？

那麼俄國就有了充足的底氣，會對歐洲發起更大烈度的灰色戰爭，逼歐洲停止幫助烏克蘭，然後俄國會吞併烏克蘭，然後是波羅的海三國。

而中國將毫無顧忌地發起武統。

所以，在美國彈藥只能持續二周的情況下發起摧毀伊朗政權的戰爭，將伊朗逼到墻角，只能絕地反擊，這個魯莽的舉動有著非常高的風險。

只有用ego和臍下三寸思考的弗拉基米爾．川普同志會這麼幹。以往的任何一屆總統都不會置美國和世界於如此大的風險，即使可能性只有10%。

2月20日，我發表了《 通向AI天堂的道路經過地獄》（The road to AI Utopia Goes Through Hell），我預言AI的發展會經過一個地獄般的惡性循環：

1. AI 變得越聰明，企業需要僱用的人就越少。微軟執行長最近預測，在 18 個月內，所有白領工作都將消失。隨著機器人的成熟，藍領工作也很快會隨之而去。
2. 當社會中很大比例的人失業時，企業的利潤將會下降，因為負擔得起產品的人越來越少。因此，企業被迫更積極地透過 AI 取代人類來降低成本，進一步讓經濟降溫。
3. 企業知道這會導致什麼後果，但如果有一家企業拒絕用 AI 取代人類，它的成本會高於對手，導致其率先倒閉。因此，每個人都被迫加劇這個惡性循環。

三天後, 華爾街時報發表了一篇文章, Viral Doomsday Report Lays Bare Wall Street’s Deep Anxiety About AI Future, 它談論了同日發表的關於AI前景的重磅研究報告 THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS, 其中談到了和我預言的一模一樣的惡性循環！

還是那句話：如果你想知道未來，請關注我。

當領導告訴雅蘭，她的海外部署被批准時，她高興得不得了。國內經濟不好，公司已經進行了三輪裁員，大家人心惶惶，拿到這個去毛里求斯的分公司培訓本地客戶的任務，不僅保證了一年內不會被炒，而且收入還會大幅度增加。

公司在毛里求斯的辦公大樓相當氣派，住宿和伙食比在國內還好。雅蘭在毛里求斯呆了四個月了，隨著春節的臨近，對北京、父母和朋友們的想念與日俱增。

這天，領導把她叫進辦公室，說公司只有小王和她能給本地人培訓和支持，小王已經兩年沒回家了，這次春節應該回家，所以她必須在春節期間留在這裡。雅蘭心裡一沉。

“還有誰留下來？”

“只有你。Philip和Peter會照舊負責安排培訓。你可以開公司的小車上下班。”

Philip和Peter是本地的黑人。雅蘭的英語用來培訓軟件尚可，軟件之外就很局限，所以雅蘭和這二個人私下沒有什麼溝通。

看到22歲第一次出國的雅蘭強忍住的眼淚，一向威嚴的領導臉上露出了慈祥的微笑，

“別傷心，雅蘭，等過了春節，小王回來了，我讓你回國補上這個假。”

“還有，我在本地有二個華人朋友，我已經跟他們打好招呼了，除夕年夜飯你去老李家吃，初一的晚飯去老鄭家。他們會好好招待你，讓你感覺到濃濃的節味兒。尤其是鄭家，” 老闆面露神秘的笑容，“保證你見世面。”

雅蘭終於破涕為笑。

除夕夜，雅蘭開車到了老李的家。從外面看，這個獨棟住宅和周圍的沒有什麼區別。開門的是一個皮膚漆黑的二十多歲的黑人女人，雅蘭吃了一驚，趕緊用英語道歉說找錯門了，而黑女則露出一口雪白的牙齒和燦爛的笑容，用生硬的普通話說：

“你是雅蘭嗎？”

“是… .嗯… 我找李叔叔。”

“你沒找錯，雅蘭，進來… 新年好！”

雅蘭一臉糊塗地進了屋，迎面撲來菜的香味。這是一個工薪階層的家，家具陳舊磨損，白墻經過不知道多少年生活的沉澱，已經發黃，隱隱約約還有小孩子的塗鴉。高低、格式不同的六把椅子圍著擺滿了飯菜的飯桌。老李六七十歲，一頭白髮，滿臉笑紋，穿著圍裙到門口來迎客，後面是同樣白髮、同樣慈祥的老伴兒，還有一個三十多歲的體態微胖、有些腼腆的男子，都穿得很隨便。

老李一嘴京腔，給雅蘭介紹了每個人：

“這是你趙阿姨，這是你哥Adam，這是你嫂子Sarah。”

老李和趙阿姨五十多年前響應毛主席號召支援非洲兄弟來到安哥拉，又輾轉到了毛里求斯，相愛結婚，留下來定居。其他中國人移民的孩子都有一個中文名字和一個護照上用的英文名字，老李嫌太麻煩，只給兒子起了個英文名字Adam，沒有中文名字。

趙阿姨從後面把老李推到一邊，拉住雅蘭的手上下打量，滿眼都是愛惜：

“呀，你瞅瞅，這麼年輕的女孩子，就一個人在外國過春節，真是不容易！今天你到這裡，就到了自己家，待會多吃點，吃飽了不想家。你李叔叔也是北京人，他做的菜好吃。”

阿姨把雅蘭拉到飯桌上坐下來，就開始問寒問暖起來，你家在北京哪個區，多大了，有男朋友了沒，爸爸媽媽身體好嗎。老李一看就是對老伴即愛又服的那種男人，手搭在老伴肩上，在椅子旁站了片刻，插不進話，就說：

“你們先聊，我做完這最後一道菜，咱們就開吃。”

Sarah一聲不吭地把茶沏好，給婆婆和雅蘭端上來。此時雅蘭已經完全放鬆下來了，在異鄉孤獨了了好幾天的她在和藹熱情的阿姨身上找到了家鄉和親人的感覺，不知不覺敞開了心扉，開始向她抱怨父母給自己介紹對象和催婚的煩惱。Sarah和老公則在廚房收拾清洗。

一會兒，老李的最後一道菜做好了，大家都入座。Adam打開一瓶老李珍藏的五糧液，恭恭敬敬地給老爸斟上，然後是老媽、雅蘭和Sarah。接著，Adam和Sarah舉著酒杯站起來，祝父母新年好，又轉身歡迎雅蘭來做客，大家乾杯已畢。老李手一揮：

“好，吃飯吧！”

於是大家一邊吃，一邊喝，一邊聊，老李的手藝果然了得，雅蘭這幾天獨居吃得很湊合，今晚終於找到了家的感覺。阿姨和Sarah只喝了第一杯就不喝了，老李父子和雅蘭不知不覺地就把一瓶五糧液喝完了，老李又讓兒子拿出一瓶西鳳酒，說難得客人也愛喝，今晚喝得高興。

隨著老李話越來越多，趙阿姨的話就少了，只是微笑著看著老伴，聽他向客人吹牛。老李說自己雖然不富裕，但很幸福，老伴好，兒子、兒媳婦都孝順，然後開始吹牛自己年輕時來非洲闖蕩的經歷。趙阿姨不時地和Sarah、雅蘭對視，輕輕搖頭，互換一個會心的微笑。雅蘭第一次來非洲，聽老李講那麼多有趣甚至冒險的異域故事，也聽得滋滋有味。

不知不覺，已經到了11點，第二瓶酒喝完了，老李已經微醉，雅蘭雖然沒醉，但自己也知道到了停杯的時候。

這時Sarah說：

“媽媽，您椎間盤突出，不能久坐，我扶您回屋躺一會兒吧？”

趙阿姨手扶住腰，在Sarah的攙扶下艱難地站起來，慢慢伸直腰，說：

“從來沒有像今晚這麼開心。雅蘭是個既會聽又會說的女孩子，誰娶了你，一定享福。我先回屋躺一會兒，你們繼續聊。”

雅蘭站起來說：

“不早了，叔叔忙了一天，也該休息了。感激你們一家今晚敞開門，接納我這個陌生人，和你們一起吃年夜飯。叔叔的手藝真棒，比我爸爸的還好。”

阿姨輕輕一巴掌打在雅蘭肩膀上，

“啥叫陌生人？從此就是一家人！”

老李聽雅蘭誇獎自己的手藝，不禁心花怒放：

“你有時間再來，我還有好多菜做給你吃！”

回到寂靜的宿舍，雅蘭卻不再像以往的夜晚感到孤獨寂寞，她帶著微笑鑽進被窩，很快睡去。

第二天傍晚，雅蘭的車離開市區，進入茂密森林之間的一條碎石路。轉過彎來，老鄭家的大門豁然顯現，雅蘭不禁失聲說：

“天哪！這哪裡是非洲！這是北京的王府！”

在她面前是一座寬闊的門屋建築，屋頂鋪設著綠色琉璃瓦，屋脊兩端各有一尊脊獸，正中二扇朱紅色大門緊閉，門扇上整齊排列著縱九橫七、共六十三枚圓形金屬門釘。門前是一片平整的青石地面，左右各有一隻活靈活現的石獅子。大門兩側的牆根處放著長方形的上馬石。門樑上的彩畫圖案古色古香，春節的紅燈籠發出柔和的光，和朱紅的大門形成優美的襯托。

雅蘭走上青石板的台階，上下看了一圈，覺得應該去扣獸環。她手剛剛抬起來，大門打開了，一個帶著金絲眼鏡的瘦高男人，穿著絲綢長衫，帶著六塊黑色的綢鍛縫合成的瓜皮帽，帽頂是一顆水晶頂珠。雅蘭驚訝之中還沒說話，男人說：

“你是雅蘭女士吧？我是管家。歡迎你來到靜淵山莊。隨我來。”

雅蘭跟在管家後面，進了大門。繞過厚實的磚雕影壁，進入了第一進院落。院子中間有顆枝繁葉茂的大樹，樹上也掛著幾隻紅燈籠，一個僕人正在掃地上的落葉。周圍的地面由青磚鋪成，左邊一排房間是管家和雜役的住所，右邊是主人辦公和接待公事訪客的地點。繞過大樹，二人走向通往第二進院落的垂花門。門簷前方的兩根短柱並不落地，而是懸在半空，柱頭雕刻成含苞待放的蓮花形狀，以青綠與金粉裝飾，門頂覆蓋著與大門一致的琉璃瓦，簷下是暗紅色的層層疊疊的斗拱。

“您看著點腳下。”

雅蘭光顧著仰頭看這美輪美奐的門，要不是管家的提醒，一定會被門檻拌個大跟頭。她低頭邁過門檻，心裡湧現了七個字：“劉姥姥進大觀園”。

跨過那道高聳的門檻，雅蘭眼前的空間陡然開闊，外院那種公事公辦的清冷感瞬間消散。正前方是一座面闊五間的正廳，石階高聳，暗紅色的格子門窗緊閉，裡面散發出柔和的黃光。兩邊柱子上各掛一副抱柱聯，上聯是“門接山川心自靜”，下聯是“淵涵氣脈意更聞”，橫匾上三個泥金大字“萃芳堂”。兩側的東西廂房與正廳之間，由一圈精緻的抄手廊環繞連結。深紅色的廊柱，樑枋上繪滿了細膩的山水花鳥彩畫。管家領著雅蘭走在抄手廊上，廊下一個僕人垂手立在陰影裡，見到他們經過，只是微微欠身，沒有發出一絲聲響。高跟鞋敲擊在木質地板上，發出清脆的迴響，雅蘭此時有一種穿越的感覺，仿佛此時正處在百年前的北京王府之中，自己是一個被管家領去見王爺的丫鬟。

管家推開高高的格子門，正廳中央是一張雕籠刻鳳的紫檀木的大桌和八把同樣精雕細刻的紫檀椅子，桌子上已經擺了些山珍海味，但肯定沒有擺滿。正對前門的前方是一座漆器屏風，擋住通往後院的大門，屏風上方的墻面上掛著百子圖，屏風前是一對寬大的紅木太師椅，中間是一隻高幾，這是主人接待貴客的地方。左邊靠墻是靈芝頭大條案，正中是自鳴鐘（象徵“終身平安”），兩側是大瓷瓶（象徵“平平安安”）和鏡子。另一邊是一排紫檀椅子，管家把雅蘭領到最邊上的椅子坐下，一個女僕遞上一杯茶，管家說稍等片刻，等飯菜準備好，主人一家就會來。說完就走了。

雅蘭的椅子不遠處就是大廳的一角，角落的香几上放著一尊銅製獸夾熏爐，冒著一縷淡淡的檀香。雅蘭品了一口茶，香沁肺腑，原來世界上有這麼香的茶！她舌頭在嘴裡慢慢蠕動，追逐那淡淡的芬芳餘味，忐忑不安的心慢慢安靜下來。她環顧四周，墻上掛著幾張古色古香的字畫，有一張她覺得有點眼熟。每過一會就會有一二個僕人端著一道菜放在桌子上。雅蘭此時明白為什麼領導故弄玄虛，就是不介紹鄭家的情況，原來是不想劇透，想讓自己經歷這個穿越的感覺。他只說了一句：自己作為中國在毛里求斯的一帶一路項目的負責人，卻不知道老鄭的背景有多深。

最後，幾個僕人開始在桌子上擺放青花瓷碗和小葉紫檀的筷子，不是隨便一放，而是仔細擺正。雅蘭估計要開飯了。

果然，不一會，門開了，先進來的是管家，進來後站到一邊，接著進來一個穿著旗袍，濃妝艷抹，珠光寶氣的二十八九歲的女子，雖然很漂亮，但在雅蘭眼裡頗具風塵戾氣。跟著進來的是一個走路吊兒郎當的男子，一身唐裝。二人大喇喇地徑直走到飯桌前，僕人趕緊拉開椅子，二人挨著坐下，一言不發，開始刷手機，全程對雅蘭熟視無睹。雅蘭不知道該不該站起來，該不該打個招呼，陪了個笑卻沒人理，尷尬得如坐針氈。

又過了片刻，一個同樣濃妝艷抹、珠光寶氣的的三十多歲的美婦人挽著一個六十多歲的不怒自威的男人進來了。僕人們一齊微微躬身，叫聲“主人”。雅蘭連忙站起來，手裡的茶杯不知道該拿著還是放下。這個肯定就是領導所說的“老鄭”了。

主人問雅蘭：

“來啦，雅蘭？路好找嗎？”

“還行，這片森林我從來沒來過，我以為迷路了，但決定再開一段再掉頭，就到了。”

“好，來了就好，坐下一起吃飯吧。別拘束，你的領導是我的好朋友，我這個小園子就是他給我建的。”

於是雅蘭走向飯桌，僕人接過了她手裡的茶杯，主人夫婦坐下，做手勢讓雅蘭坐在客位。那對先到的年輕人全程沒理主人夫婦和雅蘭，繼續刷手機。主人瞪了他們一眼，對雅蘭說：

“這是我兒子鄭屹和兒媳映雪。”

兒媳抬眼瞄了雅蘭一眼，就繼續刷手機了，兒子斜眼掃了雅蘭一眼，問老鄭：

“她是誰？”

“你曲叔叔單位的員工，春節一個人留下來堅守崗位，讓我關照一下。”

“曲三兒自己來就罷了，一個給他打工的，呵呵。” 鄭屹冷笑了一聲。

“鄭屹！”主人有點不快。

鄭屹繼續刷手機，毫無反應。

鄭夫人打圓場：

“吃飯吧！你看，僕人們準備了這麼多吃食，雅蘭，你多吃些！”

於是幾個人開始一聲不吭地吃飯。不知是不是昨晚在老李家吃得太多，雅蘭一點食慾都沒有，象征性地動了幾筷子，都不知道是什麼味道。她已經開始盼望離開了。

老鄭問雅蘭：

“聽曲偉說，你昨晚是在老李家吃的？”

雅蘭點了點頭。

“哼！”老鄭面露鄙夷的神色，不說話了。

雅蘭忽然覺得心裡有什麼地方被刺了一下，她豁然明白，潛意識裡，她已經把李叔叔、趙阿姨當成了自己的家人，主人對李叔叔的鄙夷，讓被輕視、冷落了一晚上的自己忽然擺脫了尷尬和自卑，起了敵愾之心。

“您為什麼哼一聲？”雅蘭眼裡的怯懦沒有了，開始閃爍著亮光。

老鄭怎麼會看不清這個年輕人的心思。他完全可以不回答。但不知為何，面對這個和自己的妻子和兒媳形成鮮明對比的、純潔之美如出水芙蓉的年輕女孩的敵意，他忽然無法壓制自己的反擊的衝動。

“混了一輩子，混成個窮光蛋，光窮也就罷了，兒子居然娶了個黑鬼，從此子子孫孫的血都是臟的，子子孫孫都是雜種。”

雅蘭豁地站起來，她的臉白了。

老鄭看住雅蘭的眼，深邃的目光雖然沒有憤怒和威脅，卻讓雅蘭不寒而慄。

“坐下，年輕人。”

雅蘭想到自己的工作。她乖乖坐下了。

老鄭問雅蘭喝不喝酒，雅蘭說昨晚喝多了，今天不能喝了。於是老鄭開始自斟自飲。兒子兒媳早就不吃了，又開始刷手機。老鄭半瓶人頭馬下肚，舌頭硬了，話多了，夫人連連給僕人使眼色，讓他們把酒拿走，但老鄭已經喝過了可控的臨界點，誰都不敢拿走酒瓶。雅蘭越來越不自在，但老鄭談興正濃，她不敢惹他發怒。自己要是丟了工作，現在這個經濟環境，就別想再找到。只能忍。

老鄭開始給雅蘭介紹這個“小園子”裡面的各樣寶貝，值多少錢，有哪幾樣是托關係從故宮博物院用贗品換出的真品，就包括雅蘭看得眼熟的那幅畫。這個三進的四合院是請台灣建築大師姚仁喜先生設計的，就連這些僕人和廚師都是在台灣經過國學培訓的。

“我應該可以算作是海外華人中堅守中華文化的第一人。”

“唉，真正的國學，大陸都沒有了。真正的國學，都在台灣”。

“就連兒媳婦都是台灣國學大家的女兒。”

兒媳婦就跟沒聽見一樣，繼續刷手機。

“要不是她是XXX先生的女兒，就她這個長相這個脾氣，哼。”

兒媳婦站起來轉身就走。老鄭大喝一聲：

“你哪去！”

兒媳婦把手機“啪”地摔在地上，回頭尖叫：

“去給你上墳！”

大哭跑開。

鄭夫人盯住老鄭看了一會兒，搖了搖頭，站起來一聲不吭地走了。

兒子仍然在無動於衷地刷手機。

雅蘭渾身僵住，低頭看著桌面，一動不動。

過了半晌，老鄭回頭對管家說：

“天不早了，送雅蘭回家吧。”

雅蘭如獲生天，站起來朝出口快步逃走，幾步就超過了管家。在穿過天井時，廂房裡傳來兒媳歇斯底里的大哭：

“你嫌我醜，就別上我的床！你佔了我身體，就嫌我醜了！… 我不活了！”

春節假期結束了。領導特地把雅蘭單獨叫到辦公室，問他在老李、老鄭家的年過得怎樣，尤其是，

“誰家更能代表中華文化？”

見雅蘭支支吾吾，領導意味深長地說：

“放心告訴我你是怎麼想的，我向你保證，你的觀點肯定和我是一樣的，因為我知道你是怎樣的一個人。”

雅蘭說：

“這幾天我一直在想這個問題：究竟什麼是中華文化？

“那些建築、服飾、飲食、習俗不過是局限於特定時代和環境的外部的東西，它們是中華文化在這個特定時代和環境的衍生品，而不是中華文化本身。

“中華文化的精髓，是善良，是尊老愛幼，是己所不欲勿施於人的同理心。

“所以，李叔叔一家將中華文化完美地帶到異國他鄉，並把它向下一代、向異族傳下去。”

“鄭先生自以為是中華文化的傳人，他鄙夷李叔叔，認為他擯棄了中國文化。

“其實他連中華文化的邊都摸不著。”

領導對雅蘭樹起了大拇指。

*******************************************

朋友們，你們看懂了我這個故事的含義了嗎？

李叔叔家就是歐洲。他們雖然接納了很多異族，但他們沒有改變基督教文化的精髓——自由，平等，博愛，對異族的受難者伸出雙臂，敞開大門。

鄭家就是美國。他們崇拜通姦、性侵、欺詐的國王。他們毫無證據在公海上大肆殺害海員。他們對最鐵的鐵哥們威脅動武強奪其財產。他們槍殺和平示威群眾然後污衊被害者是恐怖分子。

然後，他們居然有臉先後到兩屆慕尼黑安全會議上對歐洲居高臨下地說，

“你們丟失了西方文明，只有我們美國才有它。”

真特麼讓我笑掉大牙。

In this prophecy which I made in 2023, AI in 100 years is a matter of philosophy, I described a utopian future when AI has matured. I predicted that people no longer work, everything is free, the concept of property and ownership disappears. Two years later, Elon Musk made a very similar prediction.

However, before AI evolves into that maturity, the transition period is extremely bleak and terrifying. The tumbling down the cliff has already started. Large enterprises such as Amazon are conducting massive lay-offs while their profit significantly increases. This is the result of replacing humans with AI. 

This started a vicious cycle:

1. The more intelligent AI becomes, the less humans businesses need to employ. Microsoft CEO recently predicted that within 18 months all white-collar jobs will be gone. Blue collar jobs will soon follow when robots mature.

2. When a large percentage of people in a society are unemployed, the profits of businesses will decrease because there are less and less people who can afford their products. Thus, businesses are forced to reduce cost more aggressively by replacing more humans with AI, which cools down the economy further.

3. The businesses know where it leads to, but if one business refuses to replace humans with AI, its cost is higher than others, so it dies first. So everyone will be forced to strengthen this vicious cycle.

Until one day, governments no longer have money for hospitals, roads, and police. Massive unemployment will cause social unrest, demagogues ten times more vicious than Trump, Orbán and  Erdoğan will ride the anger of the mob to establish dictatorship, plunging humanity into eternal darkness.

This is not fear mongering. I can see it happening with my own eyes.

How to prevent this catastrophe from happening?

One of the possible solutions is that the government taxes businesses for the profits they make by replacing humans. 

If a business saves $50K per year by replacing a human with AI, then it needs to pay $20K or $30k to the government as a special tax. 

This way, the government is not trying to stem the inevitable AI tide – businesses can still benefit from AI and the government is with them, not against them. 

Then, the government uses this special tax to help jobless people to maintain a decent life, and this guarantees that AI-powered businesses do not run out of customers. This will soften the pressure on the businesses to cut humans more and more aggressively, and help the transition to the ultimate utopian stage to be rolled out in a controlled manner.

All developed countries must launch this AI tax together. Otherwise, if one country launches it, the busineses in this country will simply move to another county.