First of all, yes I do imply with the above title that the United States is not a civilized country. You can give me a billion evidences to rebuke me, but I insist that, if a government agency posts such a message to its Indian citizens:

“Hey Mr. Singh! Get off our road! America doesn’t want you!"

Then this country by no means can be regarded as a civilized country.

Period.

Is Trump’s America an ally of Europe or Russia?

Since 1945, America’s democratic allies have operated on an assumption so fundamental that it was rarely questioned: whatever disagreements might arise with Washington, the United States would remain the ultimate strategic backstop of the democratic world.

Since the beginning of Trump’s second term, that assumption has gone.

America’s erstwhile allies are facing the gravest security challenge since the Cold War. With Russia intensifying its war against Ukraine, NATO is all but certain that Russia will soon launch some form of shooting attack on it. In the Indo-Pacific, China is building jet fighter runways on one of the illegally occupied islands in the biggest expansion in the last ten years. Yet at precisely this moment, Trump started a war that no adults in the room wanted and got the United States bogged down in the quagmire.

Facing a shooting war with Russia, Germany urgently needs weapons such as Patriot missiles, which it had ordered from the US, and was told that, due to the war with Iran consuming most of America’s stockpiles, delivery will be delayed by five years.

At the same time, Trump is drastically reducing American troops in Europe.

I know it may sound radical to many, but if you were a new visitor to Earth, judging from what Trump is doing, wouldn’t it be natural for you to assume that Trump and Putin are allies?

The root cause

The problem is larger than Trump. Regarding America’s current actions of waving olive branches to Putin and Kim Jong-un and showing its middle finger to its erstwhile allies, none of these allies thinks that this is a Trump-only aberration.

Trump once famously boasted during his 2016 campaign that his supporters were so loyal that he could stand on Fifth Avenue, shoot somebody and not lose voters.

These voters are the problem, not Trump, and, because of them, this radical swing is not a one-off aberration, but the beginning of America’s permanent moral and cognitive decline.

These angry mobs have always been there, but their numbers have greatly multiplied in the last decade, partly due to the economic pain brought by the transition from manufacturing to a digital economy, but mainly due to the decline of the Christian faith—more and more people are starting to feel that no one cares about their difficulties, and they desire a Jason Statham-style quick fix involving baton-beating someone their chosen demagogue throws to them as a scapegoat.

America’s erstwhile ally—democratic Europe—was one of the scapegoats.

Another shift also contributed to this swing. In the past, the elites controlled society’s narrative via newspapers and television. Now, using social media, these angry mobs have wrested control of narratives from the elites into their own hands.

Therefore, the adults in the room—America’s erstwhile allies like democratic Europe, the UK, Australia and Japan—understand that the good old days when this giant acted with strategic maturity, sophistication and constancy are gone.

Although they don’t spell it out—there is zero need for the petulant kid who is the president of the world’s most powerful country to hear their plan—the adults have started a major movement of de-Americanization.

The civilized world is de-Americanizing

Silently, something very substantial is happening.

1. Europe is constructing its own air and missile shield

Europe possesses excellent air-defence technology. France and Italy developed the Aster missile family and the SAMP/T system. Germany produces IRIS-T. European companies possess world-class radar, electronics, missile-propulsion and guidance technology.

But these technologies do not form an organic sky net that covers the whole of democratic Europe.

There are not enough launchers or interceptors. Production capacity is inadequate for a prolonged high-intensity war.

And the continent still depends heavily on American systems—most importantly Patriot—for some of the most demanding ballistic-missile-defence missions.

That is now changing. Europe is pursuing integrated air and missile defence, including the European Air Shield and other multinational programmes intended to connect sensors, command systems and different layers of interceptors.

The strategic objective should ultimately be straightforward:

If America has Patriots available, excellent.

If America does not, Europe must still be able to shoot the missile down.

2. Europe is building sovereign space capabilities

Modern warfare does not begin with the tank. It begins hundreds of kilometres above it.

Satellites provide communications, surveillance, navigation, missile warning, targeting and battlefield intelligence.

An autonomous European army that cannot independently see the battlefield, communicate securely or detect incoming missiles is not genuinely autonomous.

This has historically been one of America’s greatest contributions to NATO—and consequently one of Europe’s greatest dependencies.

Europe is therefore expanding its own military and dual-use space infrastructure, building upon Galileo, IRIS² and national satellite capabilities.

3. Europe is developing independent long-range strike capabilities

Europe needs the ability to destroy Russian missile launchers, ammunition depots, command centres, air bases and logistics infrastructure far behind the battlefield.

European countries are cooperating on long-range precision-strike programmes.

France, Germany, Italy, Poland, Sweden and the United Kingdom have participated in the European Long-Range Strike Approach.

France and Germany are also deepening cooperation in deep precision-strike capabilities.

4. European nuclear deterrence is quietly becoming more European

This may ultimately be the most profound change of all.

Europe already possesses two nuclear powers: Britain and France.

Their nuclear arsenals are far smaller than America’s, but Russia does not need to believe that Europe can destroy Russia ten times over.

Deterrence requires Russia to believe that attacking Europe could impose an unacceptable cost.

Britain and France have therefore begun deepening nuclear coordination. France and Germany have also begun much more serious discussions about the role of French nuclear deterrence in European security.

This does not presently replace America’s nuclear umbrella.

But merely having this conversation would have been politically extraordinary not very long ago.

Europe is beginning to ask the previously almost unthinkable question:

What happens if one day the American nuclear umbrella simply isn’t there?

That question itself represents de-Americanisation.

5. Europe is preparing for the next world war without America

Ukraine has transformed military thinking. Cheap drones can destroy equipment costing millions of dollars. Uncrewed aircraft can conduct reconnaissance, strike logistics networks and saturate traditional air defences.

Europe is investing heavily in drones, counter-drone technology, electronic warfare and inexpensive interception systems.

Technology is no longer flowing only from Western Europe into Ukraine. It increasingly flows in both directions. Ukraine has effectively become Europe’s enormous combat laboratory.

A future European military-industrial system may therefore combine Western European capital, science and manufacturing with Ukrainian battlefield innovation.

That combination could be formidable, and America is not at the centre of this picture.

Europe’s eastern flank requires surveillance, drones, electronic warfare, hardened infrastructure, ammunition stockpiles, air defence and forces capable of moving rapidly to threatened regions.

Countries bordering Russia and Belarus understand this particularly clearly. Poland and the Baltic states have consequently become some of Europe’s strongest advocates for rapid rearmament.

The geographical centre of gravity of European defence is moving eastward.

Europe is also moving towards larger joint procurement programmes, longer-term contracts and expansion of domestic manufacturing capacity. Britain, Italy and Japan are now jointly developing the next-generation GCAP fighter.

The petulant kid may intend to use the withdrawal of American troops as revenge for the adults’ contempt for him, but it only increases European voters’ support for the European military buildup and makes America increasingly irrelevant in this birthplace of Western civilization.

Europe’s opponent is Russia, not China. It does not need to be as good as the American military. If Ukraine can beat Russia to a standstill, democratic Europe, with its wealth, industrial capabilities and all the above transformations, will surely defeat Russia outright.

6. Canada is also de-Americanizing

• The “Pacific Link” Pipeline Construction: Directing crude oil to Canada’s West Coast to export heavy crude directly to Asian markets rather than selling exclusively to the U.S.
• Indo-Pacific Trade Diversification (CPTPP): Expanding economic and export partnerships across Asia and the Pacific to reduce financial reliance on the U.S. market.
• European Union Energy & Trade Expansion (CETA): Ramping up direct shipments of clean energy, critical minerals, and agricultural goods directly to European nations.
• Sovereign Critical Minerals Processing: Keeping domestic control over rare earth metals and lithium to supply global auto and tech markets directly instead of via U.S. supply chains.
• Arctic Sovereignty & Northern Defense Strategy: Fortifying northern maritime routes and defense infrastructure independently to secure trade passages like the Northwest Passage.

The endgame

America’s decline will continue. I had a long and deep article, America’s Decline — and Why I Still Have Hope, dedicated on this topic.

Unless the midterm elections deliver an overwhelmingly crushing defeat to the puppet of the big bully—what used to be known as the Grand Old Party. If that happens, it will show the world that the American race has woken up from a psychotic seizure and swears that it won’t happen again.

If that doesn’t happen, America will continue its moral and cognitive decline. The technology and economic sectors may remain resilient for a while, but there has never been a country in history that has undergone such a decline while keeping its innovation and economy vibrant. The virus will spread.

Europe has shown the world its depth and sophistication, deeply rooted in Greek philosophies, Roman civilization and the splendid elegance since the Renaissance, by holding on to its graceful values while facing huge challenges such as an influx of Muslim migrants. Upstarts with their extreme wealth may appear as nobles for a short while, but when they face such inconveniences, the crimson-embroidered celestial pallium falls off, revealing their upstart nature.

Europe will be the future beacon of Western values.