1. The Scale of the Defeat
At the time of writing, the Democrats have regained control of both chambers of Congress. According to the election figures available in our discussion:
- Senate: Democrats have won 20 of the 35 contested seats, approximately 57%, with two races still uncalled. They have flipped seven Republican-held seats.
- House of Representatives: Democrats have won 252 of the 435 seats, approximately 58%, with 28 races still uncalled.
The Republicans have used expressions such as a “blue tsunami," a “Watergate-level repudiation," and an “extinction-level event" to describe the scale of the disaster.
The political significance goes far beyond the numerical losses. It will destroy Trump’s stranglehold over the Republican Party. The collapse could be far more dramatic, and far more rapid, than you could imagine right now.
2. GOP supporters will come to see who Trump really is
2.1 He is effectively Putin’s asset
Just look at the following well-established facts and consensus:
- Russia represents the most lethal threat to democratic Europe since the Second World War.
- The United States is a member of NATO and close ally of democratic Europe. American’s strategic interest is bound to that of Europe – that was why America fought two world wars in Europe.
- A Russian victory over Ukraine would not merely be a Ukrainian tragedy. It would strengthen Putin, destabilise European security, encourage further coercion and aggression, and impose greater long-term costs on the United States and its allies.
- After Trump announced a ceasefire in which Ukraine and Russia was to stop attacking each other’s energy facilities, Ukraine complied, while Russia intensified its attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructures. Trump responded with removing sanctions on Russia, and stopped intelligence sharing and Ukraine’s use of the Star Shield, which are both vital in reducing civilian deaths in Russian ballistic missile and drone attacks, which almost always target civilians.
Since Trump took office, he had repeatedly done the same thing – showing an unequivocal adoration and material support for Putin while pressuring Ukraine to yield to whatever Putin had demanded.
If the above facts do not prove that Trump is deliberately helping the enemy of America and its European allies, what will?
A FSB identity card with Trump’s photo on it plus the video showing Trump swearing oath to Russia while getting this card, both of which being acknowledged by the Russian government as authentic?
I will not be surprised at all, not a tiny bit, if one day evidences like that do come into light!
Some argue that Trump’s above behaviour was from a innocent albeit stupid intension – to stop the Ukraine war so that America can stop bleeding and then focus on countering the raise of China.
But this theory has many big holes.
Hole #1: America had already stopped bleeding completely.
Since Trump took office in 2024, he had already stopped substantial aid to Ukraine. Europe is buying US weapons to give to Ukraine. So, the argument of stopping US bleeding so it can focus on China does not exist.
Hole #2: Trump is not against China, not at all!
In my article My Prophecy Fulfilled: Trump Embraces Dictators and Alienates Democratic Allies, I listed as many as 27 substantial pro-China policies Trump enacted after his second term. He never spared words of effusive compliments for China and its dictatory Xi, and he actually spent millions of American tax payer’s money to aggrandize the White House to mimic China’s People’s Hall.
It is laughable to say that Trump’s attempt to force Ukraine to surrender is to focus on countering China. In fact, on top of being the most pro-Russia president in US history, he may actually also be the most pro-China president in the last two decades.
Hole #3: one cannot appease Russia while countering China
Being the last two major authoritarian regimes sharing a long border, China and Russia know that their survival depends heavily on each other. If any of them falls and joins the democratic camp, the survival of the other becomes much harder.
It is a consensus amongst historians that China’s alienation from the Soviet Union and its subsequent opening to the West in the 1980s contributed significantly to USSR’s collapse:
- Two-Front Strategic Strain: The Sino-Soviet split forced the USSR to station roughly a third of its total military force along the Sino-Soviet border. This turned a formal communist ally into a primary military threat, placing a massive permanent drain on the Soviet defense budget.
- Geopolitical Isolation (The “Triangular Diplomacy"): Nixon and Mao’s 1972 rapprochement shifted the global balance of power. Moscow lost its monopoly on leading the Eastern Bloc and faced a hostile coalition of US–China alignment on both its European and Asian flanks.
- Ideological Discredit: China’s rejection of Soviet leadership shattered the illusion of a unified global communist movement. Later, Deng Xiaoping’s economic success under market socialism highlighted the Soviet Union’s inability to modernize.
Therefore, you don’t need a Harvard degree in International Politics to understand that Russia will not sit idle and watch the Chinese dictatorship being grind down, because it will weaken itself. That was exactly why Kim Zhong En went all in to help Putin in the Ukraine war.
The idea to give Putin what he wants and make him stronger so that America can focus on countering China is as ridiculous as the Ally bribing the Nazi LXXXIV Army Corps stationed in Germany with millions of tons of ammo and supply hoping it can sit still while the Ally attacks the LVI Panzer Corps on the eastern front.
People say that, if it walks like a duck, swims like a duck, and quacks like a duck, it is probably a duck.
If Trump walks, swims and quacks like a FSB agent, he is probably a FSB agent.
2.2 Apart from his master Putin, he is all for himself
In my article All Trump Supporters Paid a Hefty Price, except…, I provided detailed accounts of how every category of Trump supporters paid a hefty price for supporting him, including American farmers and working-class, billionaires like Elon Musk and Middleeasten countries like Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE…
Only group of people have gained tremendously – Trump and his family.
I bet that even his tireless work to advance the interest of Putin is not out of some selfish love – I bet Putin has something to blackmail him. So, even on this front, he is also for himself.
3. Trump will soon be relegated to the dustbin of history
Suppose two warlords A and B are fighting each other to the death. Their strengths are equal. So the battlefield is a stalemate.
Now something happened that weakened A, and the strength ratio turns to 40:60.
If both sides are machines, they will continue to fight, with A suffering more loses, until everyone on A’s side are killed, and B has only 20% of strength left.
But human beings do not behave like machines. Once people on A’s side realizes that they are losing the battle and the trend is irreversible, most of them will give up fighting and jump boat. It will take the first while for the prospect of an unavoidable defeat to sink in, then, it will take a second while for them to gather courage and make plans to make the risky move of defection.
But once it starts, it will soon evolve into a route.
At the moment, top GOP politicians have largely refrained from condemning the head of the mafia Trump, because they are still taking the first while for the reality to sink in. This stage will probably wrap up a week or month after the last seat in the Congress and Senate is called, changing the status of this catastrophic defeat from ongoing to history.
Then, they will spend a second while to agonize on when to publicly renounce Trump and his path –
“Does everyone else think what I am thinking?"
“Which is more damaging and risky, staying on this sinking boat, or facing the wrath of Trump and his army of ignorant rednecks?"
So, they will talk to each other whom they trust in private. They will try to build secret consensus before they act. They will test the water by decoupling from Trump gradually.
But sooner or later, within a few months, we will see GOP defenestrate Trump and Trumpism.
A historically reckless social experiment
America conducted a most reckless and completely unnecessary social experiment.
They crowned a convicted felon and conman, and hoped that, after his was in power, he would miraculously metamorphose into a selfless and patriotic leader.
This experiment has failed with catastrophic consequences. America’s soft power in the world, which its decent leaders had spent the last 200 years to painstakingly build is all but permanently gone. It is stuck in a hopeless war that profusely bleeds itself and its allies and it has no strategy to end. It’s debt had shot up from 36 trillion to over 40 in two years.
I hope that this seismic failure will become such a monumental cautionary tale that no American party or politician in the next thousand years will ever dear to wonder close.
For this is the only hope of what used to be the greatest nation on earth.
